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AngelusNovus
2:28
I don't expect you to reveal all your secrets, but do the Orioles have any 50 FV players in their farm system? Or are the top guys just a collection of 45/45+ with either big holes/high risk profiles (Mountcastle, Hays, Harvey, Hall) or lacking impact tools (Mullins, McKenna, Diaz)?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:28
I really like Hall and I think one can make strong arguments for Mountcastle and DIaz on either side of the 45 FV line
Heather
2:30
20 year-old in High-A blasts 15 HRs in 29 games (a 66 HR pace!) with a 1.246 OPS and 13% walk rate. So why can’t Carlos Rincon get on THE BOARD? Is he really not among the Dodgers’ Top 32 prospects?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:31
He'll probably be on their offseason list, but keep in mind that guy, over a sample three times larger than the Cal League one (also, Cal League) hit .220/.330/.350
If we used only/heavily stat-based analysis, we'd just write some code and this job would be way easier.
tb.25
2:33
I read your name as Eric Longbottom... Have I been watching too much Harry Potter?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:33
Probably. I watched Fantastic Beasts with Jill on Saturday and it was a 35.
Mandy: 2 Thumbs Up, Way Up
2:33
How do teams find players in remote areas? Does a coach need to call around on a kid?  Do area scouts just hear through the grapevine that there might be a kid throwing 97 MPH in Backwater County and then start calling around?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:35
Travel ball and the pervasiveness of video has largely eliminated these types of prospects. Anyone with a cellphone can now effectively show the world they have talent worth coming to see in person.
Mandy: 2 Thumbs Up, Way Up
2:35
I assume it is very high, but what is the percentage of U.S. amateur high school prospects playing on club/travel teams?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:36
A good question for which their is probably a correct answer, but I'm not sure. I also assume it's pretty high, but you can probably cross reference our draf trankings or BA's 500 with Perfect Game's list of players on travel teams and get a pretty close answer. There's some selection bias though, right? Because Kiley and I are out at travel ball tournys finding players.
Adam
2:37
Which farm systems top end talent would you consider the most volatile? One teeming with boom or bust players?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:38
DET, MIA, KCR, OAK
Baloo
2:39
I realize comps are annoying, but would you say roughly Zunino-like would be a possible outcome for Jake Rogers?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:39
Yeah, that's what it'll look like if Rogers works out
Power, defense, huge holes elsewhere
Jason N
2:40
The farm valuation work is superb.  Is there a model that helps me translate some of the far away 40/45 FV guys into 55-70 guys as they climb the ladder?  The Padres already have a commanding valuation lead and a ton of far away guys in the 40/45 buckets - is their lead likely to grow as some become premium prospects or is that likelihood already baked into the numbers?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:41
That's a good question because the guys we like as risers are the ones who, in this process, I think are undervalued. We're kicking around ideas of how to signal who those guys are on the board or on their player pages, but we may have to show a multi-year ability to pick them correctly  before we'd feel good about making mathematical alterations to Craig's work.
Matt
2:42
Have you heard anything regarding Chris Rodriguez? Does a healthy year vault him back into top 100 consideration?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:42
Nothing new, but I haven't asked. If his stuff comes back, yeah that's a top 100 guy for me. Stuff was so filthy.
KW
2:42
Has Trent Giambrone shown you anything in the AFL to move him up your prospect list?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:43
Yeah, I kinda dig him. He's an above average athlete with a swing I love, he can play a bunch of different positions.
Someone asks this every week and, if he is, I don't know about it. If the kid has an instagram I bet following that gives you the answer before I know it.
2:44
Whooooops, that was for this wuestion:
Lil Pedro
2:44
Has Anderson Espinoza started throwing yet? Still like the FV?
Jason N
2:44
FG seems to uniquely have the professional lifecycle of a ball player covered (you and Kiley on prospects all the way to Jaffe on HoF).  Can’t you guys work together to build a model to translate the FV/WAR in the farm valuation work into projections of things like how many HoFers a system is likely to have at any given time?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:46
Hmmmm. I wonder if HoFers are just so incredible that they'd just be noise. There's very probably a future HoF someone on our lists right now but I'd be lying if I told you there were clear signs of who it was. Like Utley is on the fringe but he'd only probably have been toward the back of our hundred.
BOARD LUVR
2:46
Can we get a column on the board for your guys writeups from the prospect lists?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:47
Great idea. It's possible this idea was rejected because it would eliminate the need to visit the articles at all, but I'll ask.
2:48
Also, if you have ideas for stuff like that, we want to hear it. This space, twitter or the FG prospect email (prospects at fangraphs dot com) are your avenues for suggestion.
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
2:48
which farm system are you most looking forward to writing up? Least?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:49
I'd rather not write up the Mets or White Sox. Stoked to write up Cleveland.
Mike
2:51
I've asked this question in the last two Fangraphs chats and have yet to get a reply. 3rd time's a charm, yeah? Ok, here goes nothing.. In soccer, player transactions are done almost entirely by one team purchasing a player from another team. If Man U wants Christian Pulisic from Dortmond, they just have to fork over the money. In baseball, you see this very rarely, usually for lesser-valued players in exchange for "cash considerations." The recent Fangraphs valuation for prospects makes me think that a team could gain a competitive advantage if they wanted to buy a player from another team's system, if that team wanted to sign a FA but needed extra money. Ex: The Phillies want to win now but may need extra cap space. With a good farm system, they could sell one or two of their top prospects and use the money to gain the upper hand to sign Machado or Harper. The purchasing team - say, San Diego - gets to invest in a future asset without giving anything up. Do you see this working ever?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:53
The commish's office needs to approve trades where in excess of $1mil cash changes hands, so there are some pitfalls built into the current CBA aside from some of the other problems that would come from abusing this idea.
Captain Clarence Oveur
2:53
How good of a chance does Tyler Nevin have to get to above average game power? Seems like a "stock up" guy...
Eric A Longenhagen
2:54
Might hit enough to produce at that level, yes. Definitely someone whose bat I'm high on after AFL
Kimbrel Questioner
2:54
What's with all the news about Cincinnati looking to add stars? I've heard them in the mix for FA guys, Paxton, etc. Do you believe it?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:55
Yes, they have a ton of position player talent and it's easy to see them adding pitching and being competitive
He is the One
2:55
Do we have enough on Antonio Cabello to know what he's going to be? If he develops, will he be an across the board contributor, or can he have middle of the order thunder?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:57
He's weird but I think it's a good weird. Has zero physical projection and I don't know what he's going to look like, physically, at 22-25, nor how it might impact how his skills develop, if he retains speed, etc. He's a tough one but he's very talented.
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