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Eric Longenhagen Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
Good morning from AZ, where we're waiting for the heat to start to break.
Tank
12:33
A few weeks back in a chat you said you didn't really trust pitchers stats in the Texas League. Any reason?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
did I phrase it like that? and did I say Texas or Southern? If I said Texas, I meant Southern. It's just been a putrid offensive season in the Southern League, most team ERA's are below 4 and the ones that aren't are just barely above it. So what I meant, more specifically, is that pitcher's stats should be viewed through that lens
Nick A
12:37
Over/under on Yermin Mercedes career homers: 19.5
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
under, but the wager is void if an electronic strike zone gets implemented
Guest
12:38
What do you make of the Yankees trading for international slot money right after missing out on Diaz? Also does reneging on that deal affect their ability to sign J2 prospects in the future?
Matthew
12:38
What happened with the yankees and jhon diaz and do they have something else lined up to replace him?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
I'm not sure what happened/is happening there. We assumed the Yankees would trade for space to be able to sign Diaz. They've made moves for space now, but we don't know if they're targeting specific players or just have other mid-level deals they still need money for after signing Dominguez gor as much as they did.
12:41
As far as repercussions for whatever happened with Diaz, I don't know how that situation unraveled so I'm not sure.
DJ Tanner
12:41
Meant to ask this is earlier chats, but with Luis Matos making it to the AZL, I'm assuming you got a personal look at him. I know you moved him to 40+ prior to that promotion, so want to hear your personal take on what you saw.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
He has great bat speed. hold on a sec...
12:45
here are some swings, remember this guy is 17 until january...
12:47
he's not as projectable, physically, as most elite 17 year olds, but the tools (power/speed) could be big
so, he's quite exciting
Fafafafafafafah
12:47
The Cardinals FO has gone mad for Dylan Carlson this year. Agree? Roughly speaking, where do you see him ranking nationally and within the Cards .org?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
we have him #42 overall and #2 in the org https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...
mamsk
12:48
so...about heriberto hernandez? tearing up the playoffs after a monster season
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
Yeah, we moved Heriberto into the 40+ FV tier, too. Present power and barrel accuracy. He can't catch, but he rakes.
mamsk
12:50
does ricky vanasco have legit MORP upside? seems to have some helium.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
mid-rotation may be a little much. Vanasco has a plus fastball. Up to 98, has the relevant spin axis that I talk about in the 'kershaws' piece, so you could argue he'd be someone to include on here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-find-some-clayton-kershaws-to-scale/
12:52
but yeah, i had him 90-92 last fall (vanasco) with a relief-only delivery. This year he's 91-96 t98. fastball-centric relief prospect for me
Big Cheese
12:52
Thoughts on Joey Murray? Potential add to the board?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
Another guy, like Vanasco, with big life on his fastball. But Murray only sits 87-92. He's more of a 35+ type of guy for us. Probably upper level depth more than someone who definitely holds a roster spot
Dan
12:54
Do you think with the off-season update the Cubs will have four “top 100” prospects in Hoerner, Amaya, Marquez, and Davis?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
i think 3
Tyler
12:55
Your thoughts on Jackson Rutledge's pro start? The Nationals need a few of these pitching heavy draft classes to hit after the trades in the past few years.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:57
I know he was throwing really hard -- like 94-98 -- during his first few starts when he was throwing about 40 pitches. I don't know what it's looked like in the 60-80 pitch range since then, but his lines are good. Seems like a strong beginning
2020/2021
12:58
Has  Johnathon Stiever become a Sox prospect to follow?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:58
Yup, velo spiked sometime during the season. Was 89-92 for me during the spring, up to 97 more recently: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...
Sad Giants fan
12:58
Are Kai-Wei Teng or Seth Corry candidates to move up after dominating single A this year
Eric A Longenhagen
1:02
I get a lot of questions about Corry. What is it Giants fans think he's going to be now? Just because of the walks, isn't there still significant risk he's a reliever? To be fair, I think there's an argument that he should be a 40+ FV now, even if you think he's a reliever, but I feel like we were just in the right spot with him this whole time: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-29-prospects-san-francisco-giants/
matt
1:03
what are the "rave reviews" saying about alexander vargas and what is his ceiling
Eric A Longenhagen
1:05
Super loose, twitchy, can really rotate so there may be power, plus or better athlete, speed, really great frame. Everyone really likes him, some more than Kevin Alcantara, who we still like just a bit more.
Jim
1:06
Can you tell us more about Jhonkensy Noel?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:08
young Cleveland corner guy, very mature frame but big present power. Both he and Cristopher Cespedes have big present pop. Noel is three years younger but his body is arguably worse. I'd take someone with a similar tool profile but more mobility, like Neyfy Castillo with Arizona, before Noel, but Noel is an offseasons 35+ FV type because the power is near the top of his age group.
angels
1:08
Patrick Sandoval has been missing bats and sitting near mid 90s. FIP in low 3s. Does this velo uptick change his outlook/grade slightly?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:08
Maybe, but he may graduate this month, too
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