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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 6/28/18
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Eric A Longenhagen
2:36
You're welcome, Mr. Seattle.
Adam
2:37
What percentage do you think mental game is in a hitting prospects success? Mental toughness, makeup work ethic etc
Eric A Longenhagen
2:40
It's hard to put a % on something that is, itself, unquantifiable, but there is a component to hitting that has nothing to do with the physical abilities we talk about a lot in prospectdom (hands, bat speed, bat control, etc). I'd call it 'competence' and a lot of it is situational, in-games. The 'make-up' portion of it is what you do to get better at that stuff and I suppose that's another part of it. I don't think you can always see it, even when a guy has it.
Jake
2:40
Hi Eric. I've been wondering what a full season of Tony kemp would look like. He seems like he could put up 6-10 HR with 90-100 runs and 20 SB. Is a 300/375/400 line not good enough or do teams knock him because of his height?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:45
I could see how you could think he's Dee Gordon with a little less glove. Or hey, sometimes guys like this turn into Michael Bourn. I guess because my eval of him, since college, has been 'he's nice bench piece or fill-on starter', and he's being treated like that, I haven't blinked
Robert
2:46
Have you had a chance to see Luis Robert.  Any update to how you or others in the industry view him now that  is playing?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:47
Saw him while he was rehabbing in AZ. Physical tools look fine, lower half's timing did not, but his hands are so electric it might not matter if he doesn't always crank the lower half right.
Jeff
2:47
How would you handle a prospect who continues to hit, but hasn't shown great discipline? Jo Adell is crushing the ball and it seems like he's not being challenged, but he's also hardly walking and although he isn't striking out a ton, his K/BB rate is not great.
Eric A Longenhagen
2:49
Sometimes those guys crush it all the way up and sometimes they hit a point where the physical talent alone isn't enough anymore. It's painful when that level is MLB, because then the failure is very public and the adjustments are harder to make because you're often asked to make them back at Triple-A. Byron Buxton was like that. Is like that, I guess. It's hard to know who the candidates are for this experience, and I don't think you're wrong to be looking at the peripherals to identify them. But hey, this is a teenager hitting at Hi-A, right?
Ethan
2:50
Who would say no to a trade of Brad Hand and Hunter Renfroe (or Franchy) for Kyle Tucker?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:50
I don't do that if I'm Houston.
2:51
I have Hands or can make them in player dev, and neither Renfroe or Franchy do it for me, especially when I've already got a Tucker.
Sergey
2:51
Does Oneil Cruz have a future at short?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:52
That's 6-foot-8 (in spikes) PIT SS who was in the Watson deal with LAD last year. It's crazy, but someone told me they thought he'd stay there last week. I think it's RF. That;s kind of his range of outcomes.
Adele
2:52
Jo Adell's arm is a 6 when healthy. But what was it the last time you saw him in person?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:53
5, but a source saw a 6 since then, at least flashing 6
Veeno
2:53
Has the scouting report on Freddy Peralta changed at all now that it looks like his fastball, despite its velocity, is a big-league out pitch?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:55
Not really. Love Freddy, but still think the command is going to be an issue. Also, remember a large part of what makes him effective is the unique release point, which at some point will start to yield diminishing returns as it gets seen. Still think he'll be good, but as more of a 1.5 to 2 WAR
Fangraphs reader
2:55
If spin rates were unquantifiable, which prospect would see his stock change the most? How much would it change?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:56
We don't have a trackman readout on every minor leaguer, so that's hard to say. We pick up nuggets on individuals here and there.
Tommy Boy
2:56
Would a Brad Hand for Alex Verdugo trade be good for both teams?  Or Brad Hand for Mejia?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:56
I'd be more comfortable with the first deal than the second, as the team acquiring Hand.
Steve Motivator
2:56
Hi Eric. I'm curious how you feel about Mike Tauchman and LaMonte Wade becoming legitimate contributors to their respective organizations. With a decent sample size now in place, who are some of the other outfielders you see flying under the radar that are deserving of attention? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
2:58
I'm on Wade, skeptical of Tauchman. But also have less notes on Tauchman (who is 27 and in a crazy hitting environment) than I do on Wade (who is 24 and who I've got in-person history with dating back to college) so my error bar is bigger there
Donald
2:59
Regarding Carter Stewart, should Braves' fans be concerned that he might not sign?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:02
I wanna say they shouldn't be concerned, but a lot of prep arms (Beede, Singer, Bickford, etc) didn't sign when Anthopoulos  was in Toronto and no other team has a track record of not singing players like he did there. I dug how aggressive their draft strategy was at that time and the system is different now, which could change how his teams operate, but it was definitely a thing.
Tom
3:02
With Paddack returning to form, what would you put his FV at?  I noticed in the recent 131 that he's ahead of Baez (55) and Espinosa (50), but he's still listed as a 45.
Eric A Longenhagen
3:03
He's a 50, as is Baez now, as shown on the 131 https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/
We need to updated the team lists, which we'll be doing between July 2 and the deadline
TJ
3:03
What would happen if a Madrigal or Larnarch tore their rotator cuff in one of these WS games? Would they still sign for the verbally agreed price?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:03
Probably not, which would suck.
G Money
3:04
Khalil Lee just promoted to AA on his 20th birthday.  Power's been a little light so far, but big-time Royals prospects have traditionally struggled at the Wilmington affiliate.  Is his stock trending upward or is there too much tweener in the profile for to you get super excited at this point?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:06
Royals RF prospect Khalil Lee, now at Double-A. Agree that Wilmington dilutes the power. Don't think Lee stays in CF, see him in RF, but think the power and OBP will be enough to profile everyday. I think he's KC's most stable prospect and, if that's your thing, you could call him the system's bets guy. I think Seuly and Melendez have more ceiling.
Fangraphs reader
3:06
Do teams approach spreading of playing time in complex leagues different  than in other leagues?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:06
Yes, you see more time-sharing, and given the significant increase in schedule intensity from HS/College to pro ball, I think it's good.
Brian
3:07
Having recently seen Yadier Alvarez, do you think he has or can develop enough command/control to become a dependable starting pitcher?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:08
Ahhh, I hesitate to say 'dependable' but 'viable'? Yeah, I still think he has a shot. I've lead the Yadi parade for a while and I realize it's kind of dour right now and we've run out of tootsie rolls to throw, but I'm still on him. The stuff is very good.
Georgie
3:09
Do you see any reason Jesus Sanchez should still be in Port Charlotte? I thought he would've been promoted awhile ago.
Eric A Longenhagen
3:10
Tooled-up Rays OF prospect, hitting at Hi-A. Maybe there's an org desire to see more patience? He's walking at a 2% clip.
Mr. Nor'easter
3:10
Do you think this recent surge by Ketel Marte is more than a hot streak? Does he present meaningful upside ROS?
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