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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Howdy from Tempe, where it seems like it's time to pay the price for living here yet again. First day of the Combine is currently forecast for 115 degrees. I might be brief today to go finish up the Rangers list. Padres list went up this week, go check that out.
Matt
12:02
Any ETAs for the 2025 draft BOARD update and mock draft(s)?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Post Combine most likely
Takao
12:02
This is more a "organizational question" than a prospect question, but Baseball America has ranked the Reds minor league hitting development the worst in baseball 3 of the past 4 years (with a bottom 5 showing in year 4). In your opinion, does that ranking accurately reflect the overall system outside of the obvious names (Collier, Stewart, etc.)? Worth noting, Reds fan here and I'd tend to agree that our hitting dev has been atrocious since roughly 2021.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
I think they've accidentally ended up with a lot of chase-prone hitters, or hitters with a consistently exploitable weakness that would make it hard for them to have sustained success. Lots of guys with "inside out" styles of contact there, too. Would I say their hitting dev is bad though? I think that's as much of a black box as anything in dev, tough to say from the outside.
Nervous Flyball Pitcher
12:05
I've seen reporting that FCL Orioles' Joshua Liranzo's max EV is up to 106.8 mph, but I don't really have context for that. Is that number good/average/bad for an 18-year-old? Do you know if he has good EV90 or contact data so far?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Here are average max exits by age:
12:07
26- 108.2
25 -107.6
24- 107.2
23- 106.9
22- 106.7
21- 105.9
20- 104.8
19- 103.5
18- 102.0
17- 100.5 (small sample)
standard deviation industry-wide is like 3.5 to 3.8 mph, depending on the year.
12:08
Those numbers are IN THE MINORS btw
12:09
So you could say Liranzo has plus power for his age, but compared to MLB average max exits (108), he's a shade below
I'd 45 his present raw, 60 future raw, maybe more if you are inclined to project on his frame.
12:10
Also btw I have him hitting a ball 111 this year
Takao
12:10
What are the odds that Tyson Lewis winds up a top 20 or so prospect in baseball by the end of 2026?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Let's see how his feel to hit trends. I'm apprehensive about that part. Definitely is a Top 50 prospect type of athlete, not sure he's a good hitter.
Justin
12:11
Has Josue De Paula's added power in games come as a result of real physical / approach / swing development, or is it just small sample theater?  Also, when you say loose in the hips, is that good or bad or neutral?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Super strong for his age, roughly average contact feel that plays up because he's so selective. Loose in the hips is good. Hip/shoulder separation is a big part of baseball, and really most sports.
Brendan
12:13
In your time covering prospects/minor league systems, which team has altered their approach most drastically?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
Texas
12:14
Texas' transition to the Young regime was pretty stark. Baltimore's under Elias has been, too.
12:15
White Sox and Tampa have probably changed the least.
Afterthought
12:15
Not a question, just closing a thread from early May: Luis De León is now back at Aberdeen and Miguel Rodríguez had surgery in April to repair a left ankle fracture (yikes) - thank you for doing these Q&As!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
De nada
Davis
12:17
When you consider both upside and proximity which of these arms rise above the rest? Jonah Tong/ Nolan McLean/ Emmet Sheehan/ Carson Whisenhunt and the Sacramento trio of Jumo. Morales and Perkins. Please feel free to discuss multiple. Thanks.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
I think you just want Sheehan for 2025 fantasy purposes, right? He's rehabbing now, he looks good, the big league team has a need of sorts, he's been up before, the Dodgers are good....
There's his stuff from his last rehab outing. Fastball basically ensures he's going to be something good.
12:20
I'd put Tong and Whiz next, just more stable than the rest in terms of strikes (Tong) and workload (Whiz)
Jimmy Dugan
12:20
McGonigle gotta move up to AA right?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
They should have a fairly quick hook, but to me that's like a month of play. Guy has mostly been hurt for the last two seasons and barely played at West Michigan.
Captain Moonlight
12:21
yo Eric - I always like the MLB calibration grades. Could you hook me up with current tool grades for like, Ernie Clement?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
He's such a weird one
12:22
Like 70 contact and defense, 30 power and plate discipline
Nate
12:22
Bazzana wasn't bad before injury, but given how a couple members of last years draft class have already made it to the bigs with a couple more tracking like higher value guys (Wetherholt, Burns)... did the Guards mess up at the top of last year's draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Nah, I think you could make the argument that if things actually click for Cags from a discipline/chase standpoint that he should have been the guy, in part because that's exactly the sort of player Cleveland has been lacking for the last little while. But they're a risk-averse org and this was the risk-averse pick. He'll be fine, it's far too early to judge, but I agree that speed/proximity should be a big part of prospect consideration.
Mike B
12:24
Thoughts on the impressive season so far from Josue Briceno?? Headed into top 25 prospect territory?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
He'll end up close to that just via graduations ahead of him. Let's see how his defense trends throughout the season now that he's catching again.
Mateo
12:25
Raniel promoted to low A - is this the most electric bat through the org since Oscar Taveras?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
He's freaking awesome. Not projectable at all, he's bordering on bulky already. Bu holy cow can he play. I had so much fun watching him last week. I'll try to get video up asap, like tonight or tomorrow, so you guys can see.
Definitely a top 100 addition when I get to the Cards list here shortly (next week or two)
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