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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Farce Majeure
12:26
How have you liked Alfredo Duno's season so far? Thanks in advance!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
He's still rather childlike overall, which has its merits. Feel for timing at the dish is mixed (saw him a bunch last week, too, at Jupiter) but his tools and size are jus so freaky. Just holding him where he's at, FV wise, I was already irresponsibly bullish coming into the year.
Fred whitfield
12:27
any New names poppping up in the complex leagues?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
I'm digging the Yolfran Castillo & Devin Fitz-Gerald dynamic duo as I work on Texas. Might go out there tonight for one last look before their list publishes.
Yairo Padilla is really physical. He's unpolished in all facets but is going to have rare raw power for a shortstop (if he can stay there)
Thomas
12:31
Thoughts on Addison Barger's recent performance? Fulfilling the top end of his prospect projection, or playing out over his skis?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
He made substantive changes to his swing, I think this might be real uptick.
thelongball24
12:32
Victor Figueroa, 1B, SDP, is really buzzy right now after pounding the complex leagues and now Lake E.  Have you had a chance to see him this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Yeah, heavy-bodied 1B/DH only type with strength over bat speed. Honorable Mention type.
Refugee
12:33
Do you think you'll ever leave Arizona?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Yeah, the question is "when?" and what might catalyze it. Like if the landlord came to the door today and said, "hey I wanna sell this house" I might gtfo and be a Panthers season ticket holder somewhere in the Triangle months from now.
12:35
Somewhere with better air quality would be nice.
Brandon
12:35
How do you get better at scouting pitch shapes and sequencing?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Do some prep before you sit and watch a game, and then really sit and watch. Use our charts and graphs to help. Like these:
Sit with a pen and paper and not your phone and just see what comes out of you, chart something however you're naturally inclined, just watch the ball move and the hitters react.
Nuxie
12:37
How easy/difficult is it to teach prospect X to lift the ball. It seems like quite frequently I see that player X just has to learn to lift the ball and the sky’s the limit
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Sometimes it's a feel thing that will naturally develop over time, sometimes teams make proactive changes. I think the proactive change can narrow their focus too early and you lose ceiling. Like you'd never want to pull Miguel Cabrera aside at age 18 and tell him "only pull the ball, son", you're capping his ceiling as a hitter by doing that even if it's strategically sound to apply that thinking to most of the hitter population.
Justin
12:39
Who do you think is the most polished, most mlb-ready hitter in the draft.  This is a Pirates question.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
Kilen
Mr Burrito
12:39
Any notable post prospect guys jumping out at you this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
I think Maikel Garcia is going to keep getting better, I think Jonatan Arranda is definitely being seasoned by the hitting environment at Steinbrenner Field but he's still quite good, I think Josh Jung looks better than his surface stats and still might improve coming off injury.. who else?
12:43
Abner Uribe looks like it's clicked
Hi Eric (Heart)
12:43
There's an epidemic of commenters saying "if I'm the GM" instead of "if I were the GM"
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
I'd still first purge the people who call it "the MLB"
Nuxie
12:44
Which statcast stats would you consider the most relative to a prospect’s future?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
in-zone contact and either hard hit rate or EV90
Kevin
12:45
How has NIL and the transfer portal affected college and minor league baseball the most?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:47
The incentives of college coaches and recruiters totally changed. You basically need an amateur and pro scouting staff now. I don't believe we've seen a drop in he number of high schoolers who sign for six figures or so, though my instincts would have been to anticipate a drop. Like my NIL deal at Louisville is X so you need to pay me Y, and you're not going to so I'm going to school. That hasn't really happened so far as I can tell.
There are definitely examples of that, like the Levonas kid at Wake sounds like turned down north of $2 mil and instead went to school.
12:48
Definitely more changes to college than pro due to the portal and NIL.
John
12:48
Is Carson Williams cooked? K% has been slightly trending down (to a still unsightly 36.5%) but his in-zone and overall contact rates are horrific. Not sure if he’ll even get to a .220ish guy with 30%K in the majors.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
Don't freak yet. Go look a 21 y/o PCA's K% at Iowa.
12:50
That glove gives him a huge floor, same as PCA. He'll be given ample time to figure it out. Is it a blemish? Yes, and it means you shouldn't expect a meteoric rise and instant big league success. But I think it'll be okay over time.
Kevin
12:50
What do you know about baseball now that you didn’t know even a few years ago?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:53
The public rankings are a bigger aspect of teams' models than I would have guessed. Visual machine learning capabilities are exploding. Kick changes, seam-shifted wake. Growth plates. Clover Park's elevator shaft floods when it rains really hard.
Jon
12:54
Are you buying the Kevin McGonigle hype? EVs look pretty good and hit / discipline are elite.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
There's a chance, because of his lack of size, that we're in Evan Carter territory where his skills are so special that, on paper, it looks like he has bigger physical tools than he actually does. But mostly I really like him and think it's real.
Insert Witty Name Here
12:57
I have young sons who love baseball and if they pursue the game I'm going to support them.  But I'm also not wealthy.  Is there a distinct advantage for kids who have wealthier parents to become prospects, or can internal drive/work negate that advantage?  My initial thought is that being able to play travel ball and showcases pit you up against elite competition which helps development.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:00
You're at a disadvantage because the kids whose families who can pay to fly to Fort Myers or Lakepoint every month are going to get seen more and generate more data. Try to get involved in activities that are *scout run* and not corporate, so Area Codes or East Coast Pro tryouts and such. The good news is that college recruiters and coaching staffs have more incentive than ever to understand the juco talent environment, so there are many paths to a scholarship, etc. As far as effort and discipline are concerned, all I'll say is I'd avoid specializing in baseball. Play a bunch of sports, do theater and other stuff.
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