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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Danny
12:29
Big Spencer Jones debate- has he made any sustainable changes, can he be an average or better regular with his current contact rate, how much are his scorching stats aided by the AAA environment (AAAA pitchers and ABS)?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
When I hop off chat this is first on my to-do list for update.
lemme glance at some stuff real quick, though.
12:31
sub 60% contact rate is terrifying, no matter how much power
He has a 58% contact rate
You can see what kind of hitters hover in that area.
12:32
That's guys with at least 600 PA since 2015, nobody with a contact rate under 60%
12:33
Doesn't mean he can't have a good peak year or two or three, but there is likely to be season-to-season volatility
this is without looking at the swing in a thorough manner (though I watched Scranton's day game yesterday)
JR
12:33
Why did Tyson Lewis stay in rookie ball so long? Will he be moved to Low A now that the complex season is over?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
I think it was an appropriate level for him all year. Now he'll essentially face a better level of competition during instructs. I know his stats look great but I'm not sure his feel to hit was ready for full season ball. Next year.
For The Birds
12:35
I gotta know, anyone who has really jumped for you in the Os system? Mejia? George? Bucce? Gibson? German? Beavers? Hell, Jeremiah Jackson? Im depressed about the Orioles give me a spar to cling to
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
George and Beavers. Beavers' power is back.
JR
12:36
Do you think Grant Taylor will be tried as a starter again next season or is he a reliever now? It seems like a quick trigger if they don't give him another chance to start.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
No idea. Were he working more than 1 inning at a time more often I'd be inclined to say yes. I agree the hook was too quick. It's plausible there's more to know than we do about this situation, but they had basically no incentive to promote him the way they did.
Kurt T
12:37
Does sports science affect eval of pitching mechanics for prospects in a significant way, in you experience?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Depends on the room, but yes. Teams are sending tech to the field, even in remote places, to capture it. Most teams have mobile Sony Rx 10 cameras (that's my model) or edgertronics in the hands of cross checkers or area scouts
YardGoat
12:39
Is Angel Cervantes truly going to UCLA or just using a negotiating tactic? In this draft pool era, what would lead a team to use a 2nd round pick on someone they aren't sure about signing?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
We'll just see when the deadline arrives but it'd be a rough look to lose him and it'd be fair for the Pittsburgh beats to ask the F.O. how the hell it happened if he matriculates.
Michael
12:40
Miss hearing you on podcasts.   Any chance you could do a 15 minute podcast every couple weeks and just brain dump on prospects draft, etc.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
Working on it, probably need a second full time person to help with all the reports to make that happen...
Sometimes I dislike the sound of my voice too much to edit the thing
Galen
12:42
I have an upcoming minor league draft for my leagues (AL/NL only).  My team is in contention for the title in both leagues.  Which non-top 100 guys still in the minor leagues might provide value the rest of the season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
I'd target AA and AAA players from teams likely to sell at the deadline, especially if those guys have post-2025 40-man timelines. Like Nathan Martorella, off the top of my head.
12:45
Cam Weston?
maybe Juan Brito (hurt right now tho)
Mark
12:46
What is your takeaway of Andrew Painter’s season at AAA? His numbers look very ordinary.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
Throwing strikes but not in miss-friendly locations. Secondary stuff playing mostly like average rather than plus. Don't think he's clearly one of their best five starters in the org right now, still a huge-framed 22 year old at Triple-A who's returning from a multi-year absence. Doing pretty well in that light.
nb
12:49
Hey Eric - Different type draft for the Phillies this year with the focus on college arms. In the short term, do you think Wood sees CBP as a reliever this year?  In the long term, do you think he has #2/#3 SP potential?  Thx!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
I think there's a shot that Wood, Obermueller or Bowker move really fast as relievers. Wood was hurt and only threw 37 innings. If he gets going in Clearwater and looks good, I could see sending him to Lakewood and seeing if he blows the doors off.
Bowker has the look of a quick mover but threw a career high in innings
so less likely
12:52
Wood a 2/3 SP? That's rich for me.
But I'm a miser.
Windom Earle
12:53
You were excited about Yorman Licourt's brief debut last year, has he shown you anything in 2025 that has adjusted your stance on him? Ks now a big problem, not just rust, or is he still in the realm of "small sample, let him adjust"?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:53
Still interesting enough to leave in the Others of Note Section for another cycle
Guest
12:54
Thoughts on Henry Bolte? The hit tool is still somewhat of a significant question, but his K rate is down, and he seems to be heating up. Power/speed combo there is exciting.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
I remain skeptical.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:56
It's not quite the same stuff that made me scared of Colby Thomas but I hope A's fans are starting to see why I wasn't dying to put Thomas on my hondo or anything.
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