JotCast | Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

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emh

12:55

Pitching prospects get hurt all the time. But is there any top hitting prospect who got hurt as often as Chase DeLauter?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:56

Honestly, I can't think of a position player prospect who has been hurt more than this.

Tyler

12:56

Where will Konnor Griffin rank in the next Top 100 update?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:56

High

Justin

12:57

Is Edward Florentino approaching Top 100 territory?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:57

Yes

It's not massive raw but it plays

12:58

Felt like a stuck my neck out putting him where I did in that system, feels good now.

Nate

12:58

Which arms in the Boston system excite you most? What is the ceiling and proximity for the best young bosox hurlers?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:58

The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

12:59

Or if you'd rather, Boston Red Sox Top 45 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Astros

12:59

Congrats to James on his first list! Anyone stand out to you from that system?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:00

Congrats indeed. Kevin Alvarez is my guy there.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher

1:00

Do you have shape metrics for Esteban Mejia's 4S/2S/SL/CH?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:02

Give me a minute and I'll get back to this one

Nervous Flyball Pitcher

1:02

A few years ago you did a review of shortstop defense - do you think you'd revisit this topic? I'm thinking of Colin Yeaman, previously known mostly for hunting fastballs, but you listed him as a slam dunk shortstop and it'd be cool to see what you see

Eric A Longenhagen

1:02

Yes, I'm actually going to comb back through all the top 100 shorstops for Monday's update and can start laying the groundwork for that

1:03

this is the piece in question: Let’s Watch Some Shortstop Prospects Play Defense | FanGraphs Baseball

Man, that's from '23? Would have told you it was from last year.

RetireNutting

1:03

It truly seems like Nutting is giving Cherington more time to do this thing he's real bad at so a trade of Skenes #3 rated trade value guy feels likely this offseason to refocus on the Konnor Griffin/Bubba Chandler window. Can you think of the team or a few teams best positioned to have enough of a haul for Skenes if Cherington would prioritize bats coming back?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:04

You can't trade Skenes, and you've gotta give the relevant parties credit for drafting Griffin and Chandler.

1:05

How has Jose Corniell's stuff looked in his return from TJ?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:07

First outing back was 96-97, cutter 92-93, ch 87-89, sld 82, rusty command. Fal Leaguer?

OwenB

1:07

Eric -- thank you for all your work! I owe my dynasty championship last year to you! Questions about two dynasty power guys: Tyler Locklear has been absolutely mashing since changing stance in early June. Anything there? Also Alfonsin Rosario mashing with more contact. Any chance he rises up rankings?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:07

I'm skeptical of Locklear but will take a quick look...

1:09

fwiw his expected stats are good, just wanna see if the hole in his swing has closed at all...

1:10

Somewhat. Still chase-prone in a way that would make me apprehensive if I were you.

Rosario I do think will rise because of how big the EVs are

Leo Needs a New Pair of Shoes

1:11

It feels like the bust rate on the "advanced college bat" demographic has been, well, at least not lower than for any of the "riskier" demographics over the last handful of years... if this is not just my imagination, have we - as an industry - learned anything about who will/won't translate successfully to pro ball?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:12

I think the college bats (like the actual metal bats) have warped and clouded our understanding

Logan

1:12

Thoughts on Izzi and Garcia, the two prospects in the Naylor deal? How likely is it the Mariners regret this?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:13

I'm gonna send you verbatim what I sent Danny Zips in Slack last night if that's okay.

1:14

Izzi: 4sm sitting 94, 2350 spin, 17 inches of vertical break (a shade above average), 7 feet of extension (near elite), 5ft8 release height (average), not getting many fastball whiffs, it's playing right in the average area which is kind of disappointing given some of the other traits. Has a separate two-seamer getting ground balls at a 57% clip, average for a 2sm but obviously useful. Breaking balls are a cutter and sweeper. Noticeably different release on his slider compared to fastball, like four inches lower in the data. Sweeper sitting 82, 16 inches of horizontal break, getting above-average miss and chase. Cutter is averaging 86, 2500 rpm, locating for strikes as often as his fastball at 54%. I feel pretty confident it's a separate pitch, though Synergy has him with just a slider. I'll check really quick to make sure the catchers are putting down more than one sign...
yeah they're different

1:15

Has thrown just under 90 changeups all year, it's not great. Stiff, short arm action, it's easy to ID out of hand and has hittable movement. Pretty emphatically checks the MLB starter box as far as his build is concerned. Delivery isn't the most graceful but it's not so violent hat this is a relief-only type. Still a really projectable young guy. I'll leave the 40+ FV on him. I have sources who think he's a no. 4 starter, essentially. That's his upside, he has some developmental hurdles to clear to get there (weapon versus lefties, for one, and hopefully better fastball playability)

And then I cut this together: