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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Howdy from the gear-covered kitchen island in Tempe. We did it, guys. It was 105 yesterday and the high today is 87. It's over, we earned it, party at the FG Desert Vista Compound on Sunday.
Jeb
12:03
Out of all the Pirates young pitchers, which one would you trade for a bat? What could they fetch back in return?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
I wonder if Chandler is the best candidate to trade, it might take him longer to polish up and make big impact than the current FO group has to make the team good.
12:06
What would the return be? In a space like this, I feel like I'd just be bs'ing you if I offered names.
APBA Baseball 4ever
12:06
Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz - how many starts do you see each of them getting in the majors next year? If the answer is zero for Smith, that's okay. Could you see Schultz getting 15+? Could you see Smith coming up in September?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Schultz I'd put on pace for a September call up and Smith I don't think will see the bigs until late the following year.
12:08
Schultz doesn't need to go on the 40-man until the end of next year. He's coming off injury and a bad strike-throwing season. It feels foolish to project that he'll make half of his starts in the bigs next year.
But late August, when you can add him and retain rookie eligibility into 2027? Fine.
Ken
12:09
Should the A's keep Ginn in the rotation next season, or is he better suited for the bullpen?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
I think they're in the zone as a building club (and clearly no longer *re*building) where you want him to remain a starter for depth purposes. Until he's out of options, they're going to need 9+ starters per year just to get through the season and to me Ginn is clearly one of those.
blackjack
12:11
What does Charlie Condons future look like?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Healthy Steven Souza, Domingo Santana type.
Guest
12:14
Last offseason, Jesus Made was the "He's ranked in the 40s, but he will probably finish a top 10 prospect next year." Who is that guy this year for you, if you have one already?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
Probably Josuar (looked great at short yesterday, btw), maybe someone like Dorian Soto.
NFP
12:16
Revisiting Kyle Bradish, I find it bizarre he seemingly has 40 command of his crummy cut fastball but at times 60 or better command of the sinker. We give pitchers overall command/control grades, but sometimes it feels like they ought to be individualized by the pitch, but I know that'd be a huge pain in the butt - what do you think?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Yeah, there are definitely guys with better command of one or the other pitch. At a certain point the written report needs to be where those details get explored, rather than taking a more and more detailed reductionist approach and cataloguing so many things that the most important ones start to lose their significance.
McLean fan
12:18
The sinker has been amazing in both results and pitch data. Was the movement a known quality at AAA?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Better than I graded them to be. I think he's gonna be pretty awesome.
Like 6 or 7 command of a plus fastball (both types) and 70 breaking stuff.
Tom, D
12:19
I'd love to get your thoughts on Alfonsin Rosario. Walk rate stayed consistent on the jump to AA but the K% spiked back to previous levels. The tools seem loud, but will he be able to hit enough to get to the power?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
Definitely a big league because of the power but probably more in the same way that Noel has been a big leaguer with huge power: the strikeout piece is substantial, and will probably make him a streaky hitter in both directions.
Guest
12:20
Has Felix Reyes hit himself into getting a grade in the next Phillies report?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Saw him last week while i was on vacation, he's really physical, his data is good (like a 23% miss rate on a guy with a 108 EV90 is pretty good, most dudes hitting it that hard are missing way more). I don't trust his swing to play versus big league stuff to that level of contact, but I'll definitely have an above replacement grade on him.
12:23
so like a 40? Maybe a 40+ if I really buy it on a deep review? Still a big league piece.
Guest
12:23
How much stock do you put into the RosterResource MiLB Power Rankings?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
Roster Resource is the best baseball tool on the internet but they're not trying to fluidly rank thousands of players constantly. Those "rankings" have more to do with the zeitgeist of recent performance than what Jason & Co. think of them from a prospect standpoint. It flags who's hot, basically. Like I don't think Jason would tell you Ryan Waldschmidt is the 8th best prospect in baseball even though he's 8th on the Pwr Rnk right now.
Steve O
12:27
Not a prospect question, but who's your AL MVP?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
Holy cow. Okay, multi-part answer to this question...
The most daylight I can draw between the two guys is in their games played, and in their BABIP....
12:33
Let's settle the BABIP piece of this first. Raleigh pretty consistently has a BABIP in this range, way under .300. Judge consistently has one over .300, though this year's is nutty. I do think the OBP and AVG gaps between these two guys is because of talent and not just luck. Judge is a better, more selective hitter and there's a huge gap in their OBPs for this reason.
12:34
What Judge has done from a counting stat standpoint is crazy considering he missed a bunch of time.
In fact, when he first got hurt, I thought at that time Raleigh had basically won the award.
12:35
But the fact that Cal has played as many games as he has *as a catcher* and still done this, basically had the best catcher season ever, plus the narrative aspects of it related to the Mariners winning the division for the first time in 20+ years....
I could see how you vote for either guy. I'd probably vote for Raleigh because I think the load placed on the catcher is so, so burdensome that what Cal has done this year is truly incredible.
Tom
12:36
What worries do you have about Jesus Made actualizing his power, and what kind of cap does that put on his ceiling?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
I'm not super worried about it yet, he's a kid. His talent is >>>>>
Zach
12:37
What do you make of Troy Johnston? His underlining numbers look good, but he wasn't much of a prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Nice hitter, 1B without typical power, fringe 40-man or luxury Triple-A guy.
Zach
12:38
Has your opinion of Robby Snelling changed much over the last few months, and does he crack the opening day rotation for the Marlins next year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
It has, lemme bring my updated report into the chat...
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