JotCast | Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

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Eric A Longenhagen

12:38

(this is not yet live on the site)

12:42

Since acquiring him from San Diego the Marlins changed Snelling's placement on the rubber (he's shifted from the middle to the first base side) and he's had a nearly three-tick velocity spike across his entire repertoire. He's now sitting 94 and generating plus-plus miss on a fastball that was playing more like a fringe offering when Snelling was a Padre. Snelling's delivery is still pretty violent but his line to the plate allows him to attack hitters plenty of strikes, and the quality of his stuff (the new velo and his curveball quality, especially) allow him to thrive without precise command. He's now tracking more like a good team's fourth starter, the kind who makes a case for the postseason rotation.

I think I have a pic of the mechanical change, too. Hold please...

12:45

Note the location of his landing leg relative to the rubber. 2025 on the left, 2024 on the right. This guy's gone cross-bodied.

Lord Thunder

12:45

Who is the Cardinals' catcher of the future? Or does Ivan Herrera prove durable enough behind the plate to keep Bernal, Crooks, Rodriguez, etc. at bay?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:47

I think Herrera is more DH/C rather than a true primary C. Crooks (special defender), Bernal (well-rounded player) , and Rainiel (same) all look like regulars to me. There's a real logjam here with Crooks, Herrera, and Bernal. Rainiel is far enough away that you don't have to worry about that, yet. I could see someone trying to trade for one of the more polished guys this offseason.

Chase

12:49

Good afternoon Eric, sorry I'm late, I am once again here to ask about a pitcher with a starter load of innings and good results. Antwone Kelly wasn't on the Pirates list this season, his Double A performance this year has been good as a 21 y/o, do you have any update notes on Kelly? Bumped up for you? Thanks for the chat as always.

Eric A Longenhagen

12:51

He's a prospect. Sitting 97, chance for an above-avg changeup. Added velo even though he's never been especially projectable. He's clearly athletic but has always been a thicker kid sitting 93-95 or so. Now he's parked at 97. Does it play like 97? Not really, it's more a 50/55 grade pitch on performance. I think the changeup has the action to miss bats, the slider/cutter not so much.

Petey Bienel

12:51

Have you seen anything about Dylan Crews this season to cause a major reassessment of his offense? The Statcast x numbers show much less of a disaster than his BA/OBP/SLG suggest, he seems to have pulled his K rate down to OK levels, and his power has begun to show again like it did before his injury.

Eric A Longenhagen

12:52

I'm still on him, he's flawed but the physical tools are still huge. He's a good buy low if you're in a dynasty league or play finance with sports cards or something.

12:53

The flaws: he's going to chase, and his swing path has some vulnerability to fastballs around his hands. He'll K a good bit, always, but I think the power production and impact on the bases will still make him a really good overall player.

Adam

12:54

Brayden Taylor was broken in Double-A for a year before the Rays tinkered his mechanics. Do you know what changes they've made and have they been beneficial?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:56

I don't. As I've written in his report this is a guy whose swing is so geared for lift that it might not be sustainable. Without bringing the chat to a halt to do video work on how his swing might have changed, I'll offer this: He's a really young, baby-faced, well-built guy with playable power and a great glove. He's going to play a nice role, probably at multiple positions, and have some years Brandon Moss or Ryan Schimpf type years with the bat. That's a good player even if it isn't Nolan Arenado.

Some kinda Mook

12:57

You showed some trepidation on Duno when asked in one of these chats earlier this season (I know you stuffed him like crazy in the offseason, don’t worry). Did he do anything late in the season during his hot streak that satisfied some of your concern?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:59

I just think the stuff about him that has made him risky this whole time is still there. He's chase-prone, let's see him handle better than A-ball stuff before putting him on the same level as Basallo. He's great, I love him, but Reds fans of course know how the little things Elly deals with impact his production in spite of his physical talent, and I definitely want to make sure readers know that's probably going to be the case with Duno, too.

Like if he's Jorge Alfaro (totally plausible) I don't want you to feel misled.

johnny dANGER

12:59

how much did the pandemic year impact minor league development? I also hate to think about all the prime year players that lost a year

Eric A Longenhagen

1:00

Double-edged sword, probably worse for young pro players than for those who were in college at the time.

1:01

The key year away from reps and dev was probably bad for a lot of lower minors players, or players who need the structure of the minor league season and their team-required day-to-day duties to thrive. If left to their own devices for a year, they maybe didn't do anything but fear the chaos of the world for 12+ months.

1:03

But also all the extra eligibility and the transfer portal changes to college sports likely helped some youths find themselves as people and athletes in that age 21-24 range. That's not usually the case in sports, our window of assessing these guys has tended to be 18-22 in our major sports. The fallout from COVID prolonged that (for QBs, too, I think) and we ended up catching some guys who developed late who ended up being consequential.

Like this offseason might have a couple Top 100 prospects who were undrafted signees. That's nuts.

Will

1:05

Any early news breaks?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:05

The Reds/Royals instructs game today has been cancelled due to rain.

johnny dANGER

1:06

The heart wants to vote for Big Dumper but the brain says Judge

Eric A Longenhagen

1:06

Yeah, I think that's fair.

1:07

The OBP gap is sooooo big and the counting stats piece is not. But also, Cal caught 120 games! (actually fewer than last year somehow)

Guest

1:07

Do you think Jonah Tong or Trey Yesavage are number 3 or better future big league starters?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:08

I think he's in that range, more comfortable telling you 3/4 for both guys. Mostly because of how they both look mechanically do I want to round down a shade. I think your instincts for their stuff quality are correct.

Eduardo

1:08

Could Adrian Del Castillo play a decent 1B if the Dbacks moved on from Pavin Smith? ADC platoon with Locklear or Tawa?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:09

I'd at least like to see if explored. I don't know that you can feel confident enough to trade Pavin unless you see ADC do it for a while. ADC playing C/DH/1B and essentially being an everyday player because he hits well enough is what I think his outcome will be.

GA Blood

1:10

One thing that I've spent a lot of time thinking about lately is how to evaluate pitchers in the context of how repertoire's grow and change after a pitcher reaches the big leagues. Even something as conceptually as simple as adding a sinker to pair with a four seamer can have a massive impact on a pitcher's potential. I find that the challenge that this presents is that A) it's impossible to project these changes on a case-by-case basis, but also B) that enough of these changes are happening that it merits some macro-level consideration to how we view pitchers in general. Are these considerations you try to factor into your valuations? How do you think that pitch development at the major league level is impacting the way we view pitching prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:14

Great question. A) Yes, it's maddening. So much of the outcome for any one guy can stem from gradual changes over time (like Cris Sanchez adding more and more velo) AND from stuff changed in an instant (like changes to pitch grip/design in some fashion) and I do think B) that it means you could argue scouts (and maybe me) should be back to looking for/at elemental aspects of athleticism and mechanics (though some of this can be quantified too) and command, and operate under the assumption that the club will be able to coax better stuff out of the prospect via the dev stuff you're talking about.

1:16

I think doing the macro analysis you're talking about (essentially, what are the common deltas in the data, and therefore common changes made to many pitchers across the entire prospect population that might clue us in to how I should go about anticipating and projecting those changes) are made tougher by what I think is overly specific pitch classification made by the algorithms that label pitches...

1:17

And I'm in a less good position to understand that than someone with better data access than I have who'd be able to use team tools to suss that out. I'm also dumber.

Talfred

1:18

The Yankees' draft position is almost always extremely disadvantageous because of payroll penalties, on-field success and free agent signings. How much of a handicap do you think that is? Shouldn't we expect those factors to undermine their player acquisition and development more than it does?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:20

I think you can either try to quantify it by considering the bonus pool amounts they've lost (you know slot at their would-be original pick, and the slot at their rule-adjusted pick) or by the quality of the prospect typically available at the new and old slots. Remember bonus pool amounts are not "money" exactly, it's the opportunity to spend money.

Got a great Dax Kilby report from an exec last week btw

1:21

Did you watch Roki Sasaki’s relief appearance? Stuff looking better?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:22

Bumping 100, still with pretty bad feel for location, splitter flashed 70 or 80 like it always does. Kid looks like he needs exhale, up tight.

Already?

1:22

How’d Espino look ?

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