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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Howdy howdy from cloudy Tempe, where we skipped the 70s and went straight to winter. Thanks for coming to another prospect chat. Your boy is sick with something flu-like and had to cancel plans with the neighbors for tonight so I'm just banging away at prospect lists and watching the Robert Altman stuff that will leave Criterion at the end of the month. Nice long chat today, let's see if I can answer questions as fast as you ask them....
Guards! Guards!
12:03
Any update on that oft injured Guardians pitching prospect that everyone keeps asking you about? I, of course, mean Justin Campbell.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
I texted a few people about this after folks asked just before Halloween and was told a scap strain and wrist stuff prevented him from throwing. I was told by a different source he threw some live bp at the end of September, but wasn't told how he looked.
Jim
12:05
What do you need to see to become a Henry Bolte believer?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
I guess I'm wondering to what degree are you asking me to believe? I think his tools will allow him to be a useful extra outfielder. I don't think he'll hit enough to be a regular. Too late on fastballs, too much whiffing overall. I'd ask you to reflect on what you thought about Colby Thomas twelve months ago and whether you thought I was light on him, too.
Tacoby Bellsbury
12:07
What are your thoughts on the Rodriguez-Ward trade?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
It's too early in the offseason to ask, "what the hell are the Orioles doing?", their roster seems so imbalanced to be but they have months to figure that out. In general I think trading injured pitching for a good hitter is good process, and that's basically what they did, though of course Ward has just the one year of team control left. I can see why the Angels might want to control Grayson for the next four years, but I also have a hard time believing he'll be able to stay healthy for the majority of that time.
Joe
12:10
Payton Eeles traded today...plausible utility infielder in MLB?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
I'm not comfortable with him playing SS enough to call him an on-roster utility piece, more of a fringe 40-man type. He'll be nice depth without occupying a 40-man roster spot for the next couple of years.
Ksk315
12:11
What was the consensus around the Fall League on the check swing challenge system?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
This is going to be a slightly longer answer, and I want to get some video up so you can see it, give me like 30 seconds to do that because it's sitting on my phone...
12:18
So basically, as you can probably tell from the video, the line that they have been using to determine whether or not this is a swing is beyond what any of us have come to understand as a completed swing when a check swing is appealed to a base umpire...
The base umpires were still calling check swings based on how all of us have come to understand them, which i would define as: When the barrel passes the knob of the bat...
12:19
12:20
Here i drew a line that I think we'd all say, were you or I the base umpire, would constitute a swing....
12:21
But of course the hitters quickly learned what the line for the challenge system was (which I would call, "parallel with the baseline") and they'd frequently challenge knowing they probably didn't go *that* far. Eventually hitters got too bold and were challenging too many of these (like the one you see above)...
12:22
This bird's eye view is pretty nifty, it reminds me of MVP 05's check swing overhead view. There are definitely hitters for whom it'll be less useful (think the guys with super vertical bat paths) but I think the way I have the rule basically written above (when the barrel passes the knob) still applies to those guys
12:23
In summation: the rule and line as it's currently written can't be what they take live to MLB games, the line should be perpendicular to the imaginary line that extends from the center of the rubber to the center of the plate
12:24
and this is two years in a row they ran out the above line/rule without tweaking. Granted the ABS folks (there were soooo many trainees here this Fall, the press boxes were packed) are focused on the ball/strike challenge system, which is going to be awesome, and it's fine this took a redheaded stepchild's back seat to that, but I'd advise they tweak this one before it goes live
Dan S.
12:24
Fair to see Okamoto as a .250/.330/.430 guy, like 115-120 wRC+? Or is that too high? And how much variance are we talking? Big bust risk, or safe enough floor?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
I think you're in the right ballpark. Any time a hitter comes over from NPB there's risk of complete failure, we just don't know how they'll hit in the MLB stuff environment, but at least in 2025 Okamoto performed well against harder fastballs (MLB Trade Rumors pretty badly misrepresented our thoughts on that recently)...
12:32
I think he's going to hit enough to be a top 20 1B over here for the next three years or so. Here are his splits against velo:
12:33
This is a direct quote from the report: or all NPB hitters, exposure to premium velocity comes in a small sample on a year-to-year basis. That’s especially true for Okamoto, who performed dramatically better than before against 94-plus mph in 2025, but in only half a season’s playing time. He loads his hands out from his body and his swing path has some length to it. MLB pitchers will offer more frequent and viable attempts to tie up his hands with velocity up and in, but this year Okamoto added turning and burning on 95-plus from the likes of Trevor Bauer and Peter Lambert to a home run highlight reel previously heavy on him yanking hanging breaking balls. Okamoto's splits against hard fastballs are favorable. He has an 84% contact rate against all pitches 94 mph and above combined the last three seasons, compared to a 78% contact rate overall. 
Because Okamoto is so geared to pull, he does make some concessions against well-located secondary pitches away from him, though none of his splits against any parti
JR
12:33
Any new information on Jose Corniell from your looks in the AFL? Can he help the Rangers rotation in 2026?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
I thought he looked really good until his last start when his stuff was down like three ticks and he left with the trainer.
I thought he'd quickly slot into the back of their rotation next year but now I have to figure out how hurt he was before we publish the Rangers list.
Aldo Rayne
12:35
Have you heard anything about Miguel Rodriguez' status with the Orioles?  He never came back after the horrible accident, but Palacios did, and I wonder if Rodriguez was injured or if there's a legal problem, or what
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
I've got nothing on this but will work on it between now and next chat
Avery
12:35
On EW a couple weeks ago and in some write-ups you group Justin Wrobleski in with depth guys like Ben Casparius and Landon Knack as opposed to being a reliable starting option. Why don't you see him as a ML starting option?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
I think he looked good enough at the very end of the postseason for me to backtrack on that one.
Matt
12:37
Does Ryan Johnson still project as a MIRP for you? Or did he show enough in High-A that he can start?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
I'm still not sure he has enough of a way to deal with lefties to project as a starter for me.
12:39
A ball lefties just hit .280/.325/.475 against him, per Synergy. His changeup is occasionally good, maybe it'll keep improving. There also aren't any starters whose deliveries look like that...
RP for me
Julian
12:40
How much stock do you put into Gage Jump and Jamie Arnold's ability to improve the A's rotation?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
Jump sooner than Arnold unless the A's are in the postseason mix and feel motivated to push Arnold aggressively toward the very end of the year. I like both guys, think we could see Jump by the middle of the season.
Ksk315
12:42
I've seen a few games with the ABS and the umpires with deny a challenge or in one case call for a challenge that the player denied asking for. What are the rules for challenges? This can't happen when it starts in MLB next year.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
Sometimes the guys pull a Chris Webber and forget their team is out of challenges. Or they challenge at the pace that Mark Wegner calls a strike and the umpire considers it too slow and too late for them to challenge. Sometimes hitters mannerisms are to touch the top of their helmet between pitches and in one case I saw this mistaken for a challenge.
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