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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
What's up everyone? Good morning from the FanGraphs Desert Vista Compound where I've got double-barrel action on the TVs already: Cuba/Panama and a mix of the very early college games...
12:04
The Mets list ran today, so folks should check that out. Braves and Yankees are next.
Let's hang out for a while today and watch some sports.
Alex
12:04
Can you see the Braves farm system ranking mid range by next year? Large draft bonus pool for the 2026 draft and Alfredo Sena signing next January?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Probably still toward the bottom, growing prospects into 55 FV guys or better is what really moves the needle on our rankings.
Scotty
12:05
Afternoon Eric. Anyone you're impressed with that you've seen recently on the backfields?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
I have mostly been at big league games so far. The minor league schedule officially gets underway tomorrow with one Triple-A game, most of the slate starts Monday. Teams have had camp games and the backfields have been used for Live BP and sim games, the kids are really just getting started.
Jeb
12:07
What is Griffin's realistic ceiling? Something like Witt Jr? Higher?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
He's stronger than Bob but probably not quite as skilled a contact hitter. His ceiling is multi-time MVP, HoF caliber talent.
Magic Morten
12:09
Do You think Cedanne Rafaela takes another step forward with the bat this year? He’s been on fire this spring, but… it’s spring
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
His tendency to chase is going to make him run hot and cold throughout his whole career. But the defense won't slump. That's the player he is, the years he runs into the most homers will be his most valuable in terms of production but I'd be surprised if he suddenly became selective.
sodo mojo
12:11
Which Spring Breakout game are you most excited to watch and why.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Uhhh, the one chance I'll have to double-up (LAD/CHW into SDP/CHC) is exciting. Sitting on Milwaukee across two days will be nice, too.
Hazmat Corntail
12:12
i know he’s still pretty young, but how alarming is it that Johnny Farmelo is striking out at a near 40% clip in the early small sample size of this ST?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
I don't think you should worry about data point like that after what like 20 plate appearances? Schwarber is K'ing at a 40% clip too, do you think he's bad?
Pop
12:15
What are the odds that Ethan Salas ends up as an Austin Hedges type player? On big league teams because he is great at catching, but a dud with the bat
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Differences in handedness and physicality, but yeah that's in play.
Yuniesky Betancourt
12:18
In the last chat, Brendan mentioned "bat manipulation" among college teams making it more difficult to parse college stat lines. Can you provide a little detail about how teams are doing that?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
I'm not aware of a common practice pervasive across the game, like the way sticky stuff had spread. I mean, the way the bats are being manufactured to satisfy the requirements of the rules but still improve distance is akin to golf clubs. Watch the college teams where the kids all use the same bat and maybe we can start to piece together how they're being altered once purchased.
Yuniesky Betancourt
12:22
If you had to pick one current minor leaguer to have your back in a bench clearing brawl, who would you pick?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Zach Maxwell
Lars
12:23
Is there a historical example of a hitter having contact rates in the realm that Lazaro Montes does in the minors and then significantly improving them?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I can't think of anyone off the top, contact rate is a pretty sticky data point
I don't think Laz is going to hit, I've made that clear for the last couple of years. Brendan thinks it'll be enough for him to be good.
J
12:28
If you had to pick one surprising prospect to break camp with the MLB club, who would it be? Not counting Wetherholt/Professor McGonigle/Griffin and the locked-in pitchers here.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Waldschmidt
The Actor for Al Pacino
12:29
The recent rash of PED busts in the majors got me wondering, how does a minor league player testing positive for PEDs affect your opinion of them? Noelvi Marte is the only high-profile prospect I can remember getting caught using PEDs in recent vintage, but I'm sure there have been others.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
It's a body blow to the confidence interval. I don't have a standard "well I'll reduce their power grade by half" rule of thumb, I just take it as "I guess we know less exactly how talented this guy is now"
12:32
I remember like Justin Lawrence, Pablo Reyes, Vlad Gutierrez, Clase...
Most of the guys popped aren't good to begin with.
Reyes was one that made it tough to gauge what I thought of him, he did have a power-hitting peak in the minors that made him seem better.
AL Central Casting
12:32
How hard is it to literally just catch a major-league pitcher? Like, no framing or blocking needed - just a bullpen session. Would someone who played in their youth be able to actually catch these breaking balls or would a lot get partially or entirely missed?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
Most citizens aren't strong enough to get the mitt there in time.
Key Flaw
12:33
Vance Honeycutt. He was SO bad last year, and this is an impossibly small sample size in spring training, but 5 plate appearances with 1BB and 4HR and his defense.... I can totally see what scouts can dream on with him. Is there ANY precedent for a turnaround of a prospect that was so bad at 22? Do you see any changes he might have made? What should we, as non professionals, look for to give us hope? (Hope bing a Rob Deer GG Centerfielder?)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
I bet he plays better because it's tough to be worse than striking out 44% of the time or whatever he did last year. The defense piece of it is what will let him play in the big leagues. But Drew Stubbs type is the absolute ceiling there.
Guest
12:34
Thanks to you and Brendan and anyone else involved for the Mets prospect writeup! This is always one of my favorite days of the year, an excuse for some much-needed optimism about the future. Regarding the Mets' success with pitchers drafted later or signed out of indy ball: would you credit that to scouting, development, or a combination of the two?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
You're welcome, it was just Beeg and I. Definitely a combo. Scouts should be armed with the knowledge of who their dev group feels like they can change in addition to just being open to what they're seeing at the field.
Arcadian
12:36
Will Ethan Conrad be in the 45+ tier?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
TBD, I had a 45 on him pre-draft and it's safe to assume he'll stay close to that as we scout him here in AZ this spring and revise the Cubs list.
Beano
12:37
Do you recall Diamondback prospect Kristian Robinson? I think he's in camp as an NRI - what's his story? I seem to recall that he was well thought of - is he still?
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