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Dave Nadig
3:26
Last question here:
Tangent Style
3:26
Seems like we experienced a particularly intense MF to ETF rotation in this past Q4. Do you think that has any unique (first down year to see what happens) legs into the new year?
Dave Nadig
3:26
2018 went pretty much according to plan.  That is, everyone keeps asking the question "What happens when we have a pullback."
3:27
There was a lot of "well, active management will win in a downturn, and we'll see big reversals of flows back into active MFs, and out of passive ETFs"
I (and many others) kept trying to remind folks that the opposite has happened in every downturn since the mind 1990s.
3:28
When markets sour, people ditch their under-performing over-charging benchmark-hugging active managers and just go for cheap market exposure
And thats EXACTLY what happened in the 4th quarter of 2018.
3:29
If 2019 is trendless and volatile (which is sort of looking like the baseline scenario to me) I would expect this to be a pretty "normal" flows year:  Call it 300-400B into ETFs, and 100-200B out of mutual funds.
OK, and with that sure-to-be-wrong prediction, I'll wrap it up there.
3:30
Thanks for joining, we should be same time/same place next week.
Have a great afternoon!
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