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FanGraphs 2020 Top 100 Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:01
Good morning from Tempe, everyone.
Today is prospect week's halfway point, which means the 100 is out. You know where to find it. Let's get right to your questions...
Jeff
12:02
I love Brujan too, amazing plate discipline plus athleticism combo. Is Perdomo with the D'Backs a potential giant version? Maybe not as twitchy but similarly crazy easily
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
Perhaps. Perdomo's swing really started to have juice in the fall, more from the left side than right. He also has a better shot to stay at SS, in my opinion.
Adam
12:04
Is there anything that Wander Franco needs to improve upon?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
I don't think I'd say he *needs* to improve, but as I wrote in the piece, he's a lower launch guy. But are you really gonna tweak the swing?
Akalhar
12:05
The Rangers list (aside from Solak) seems odd. Yerry and Hernandez are interesting prospects, but what warrants putting them in over Taveras or Palumbo?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
Yeah it surprised me, too. I like that system, they have a lot of 45/45+ types. Palumbo has 50 stuff but he's had injury issues, control is just okay. He's a 45 for me. Leody I can't justify sticking on anymore, unless you think he's bored in the minors and will suddenly be good once he's in the bigs.
Dave
12:08
I accept that Gavin Lux is good. But is Gavin Lux so good that LA’s refusal to trade him should have been the impediment to two years of Lindor?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
I guess you need to ask yourself if you'd rather six years of a 70 or two of an 80
Bring Back Jeff, Kiley, Mookie
12:11
This is the highest ranking i’ve seen on Casas. Why do you think youre higher on him than other outlets?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
I can't speak for other outlets. He was toward the back of the the list when I started shuttling it around baseball for feedback and I was consistently told he was too low, that he belonged with the tier of corner guys he ended up in. Also, remember you can make arguments to list guys within the same FV tier lots of ways, and I'm sure once you accept that then questions like this become easy to answer on your own.
BK
12:13
Any Blue Jay prospects beyond the top 4 considered for the top 100? 45+ types who you debated a 50 on?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
I considered Alejandro Kirk as one of many bat-first catchers on the fringe.
Eric Too
12:14
Eric, Thanks for doing this!  Just curious how close Noelvi Marte was to making the cut and also whether you think Rober Puason is a good shot to make next year's list.  Thanks for all of the great work!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
I did some background to make sure I wasn't totally missing anything but he was cut from the mix pretty quickly. You have him in the right group, though. He, Puason, Erick Pena, etc. Those types are good bets to rise in the next calendar year.
seth r
12:15
If Hunter Greene is back throwing 95-98 in spring training, do you see him jumping back up in to the 55-60FV tier?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
Gotta see a good breaking ball
Marc
12:15
You seem to be a lot higher on the Yankees farm on than a lot of other sites, as most of the ones I've seen only include Deivi and Jasson. What do you see about Alcantara, Duran, and Vargas that other sites don't?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Again, can't speak for other sites. I think if you read the write ups, it's obvious what I like. Alcantara is a big, athletic freak. Duran is a (poor defensive) middle infielder with plus power. Vargas is a really athletic, switch-hitting shortstop with feel for the barrel and some pop for his age. That's all very exciting to me
David
12:17
Quick Question on Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield: Are both 45+ now? On Dunn, what caused his drop? His second run through AA was an improvement across the board, even if a small one.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Dunn's velo was below average last year and I got tired of riding the Sheff roller coaster
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:18
Why does Shane Baz likely end up in relief?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
The org seems motivated to move him there. He has 40 control, I get it.
Este
12:19
How close was Yusniel Diaz to making this list? What kept him off?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
He's a 45 on the Orioles list (which is published and on the site), so he was a half grade away
12:20
I just don't think there's enough power for a hundred-worthy corner OF
Ajay
12:20
How certain are you that Jo Adell has a better career than Clint Frazier?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
I think you're ignoring the role Frazier's/NYY's circumstances have blocked him, but I see what you're saying. I still have a 50 on Frazier, though sounds like he needs a change of scenery. Adell's whiffs and the regularity with which he mis-hits balls does bother some people, there is some risk there. I adjusted his bust% above the baseline in the outcomes graph.
LAA
12:22
Really surprised to see Adell's arm at 40. Does he move to LF when Marsh is called up?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
I watched him all AFL and it's a 40, folks.
And yes, I have him projected in left field from the jump.
Anonymous
12:23
Have you noticed that top Catcher prospects have tended to crap out in recent years, or is that mostly anecdotal?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
It's true. Go look at this century's track record of catcher draft picks. The last ten years maybe two high school catchers have panned out at all, depending on how you feel about Hedges.
Dan
12:24
Excellent list, thanks. As Indians fan, pleasantly surprised about the Karinchak catapult to 50 FV. Can you give a quick H2H comp to Clase, who I believed to have even better stuff (and command?). Thank you
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
Clase's stuff looks better to my eye but Karinchak's style of stuff, that heater with vertical movement, plays better than Clase's 100mph cutter.
HK
12:25
Did Kiley make his night escape from FanGraphs with his high speed scouting camera or did you lawfully confiscate it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
I think he's sending it back to David
Jake
12:26
How close (or not) were Aaron Bracho and Bo Naylor?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
Bracho was not close. Like the bat, but he has no position and the cement on the body is dry. Naylor was on the big early list and an early cut, but he'll be on the picks to click tomorrow along with all the other catchers I like.
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