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FanGraphs 2022 Top 100 Prospects Chat
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Dennis
1:10
Noticed the absence of Michael Harris in your rankings despite the buzz as a potential five-tool player.  What is your concern there, is it primarily regarding the hit tool?
Kevin Goldstein
1:10
Another guy getting a lot of questions. He certainly has the potential to make a future list, but for now, we need to see more.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:11
The approach, for me. It's not as bad as Waters' approach but it's at least a yellow flag
1:12
Though you could argue that's true of a bunch of the young shortstops on the list
Birdland
1:12
Looking at the outcome chart (love the feature btw) for DL Hall. Expected the risk of being a bust to be higher with his injury concerns. Is it low because of the thought that worst-case scenario he could turn into a reliever and be Josh Hader-esk?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:12
yerp
JRap
1:13
A process question, curious on how a recent injury would affect FV.  Using Josh Jung as an example, let's say his recent labral strain injury requires surgery and he miss most if not all the season.  Would you still have him as a 60 FV or would the risk cause his FV to fall and to what extent?
Kevin Goldstein
1:13
This was a late-nite discussion last night. If we knew that he needed surgery, we would have slid him, but it's still an unknown and we didn't want to make an assumption.
Ben Hessler
1:13
What keeps guys like Cody Morris out of the top 100 after seasons like last year? Is it age? or do you just consider them late bloomers?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:13
Really good prospect and big leaguer, he's likely to be in the 45 tier of the Guardian list
Jimbo Jackson
1:14
I've gotten a sense from my fellow Cleveland fans that there's some disappointment surrounding George Valera's evaluation. Could you try to explain why his exceptional performance at levels for which he was quite young wasn't enough to improve his standing since the last list?
Kevin Goldstein
1:14
There are still very fair questions about the utility of the hit tool.
Jack B
1:14
You've got Soderstrom at 1B, what chance would you say he has of catching or playing a COF?
Tess Taruskin
1:15
He's mostly caught so far (even though he didn't much in high school) but 1B route is a quicker one to the bigs.
Clearwater Revival
1:15
Is the worry with Jose Tena that his swing-friendly approach just won't translate as he makes up higher levels?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:15
correct. Again, Gabe Arias (performed at Triple-A at age 21) and Ronny Mauricio (huge frame, more power projection) are examples on the list where they are also aggressive but there are meaningful separators between Tena (who I like) and those two.
swing-friendly is cute
swing-positive, maybe?
Billy G
1:16
Fill in the blank: on opening day, the A’s will have _ 50 FV prospects?
Bo Callahan
1:16
Considering your write up, why don't you just list Adley Rutschman as a 75 FV prospect?
Kevin Goldstein
1:16
No 75s, no 25s.
Tess Taruskin
1:16
1. Just Soderstrom for now, but Gelof and Pineda could get there soon.
Kevin Goldstein
1:16
Whoops! That's gonna happen with three of us in here, but we'll try our best to keep the orders well, bear with us.
Tess Taruskin
1:16
jinx!
KevinT
1:17
I am curious on what seems like an uptick in catchers in high tier rankings over the last few years. 10 in 2020 (out of 120), 11 in 2021 (out of 133), 13 in 2022 (out of 113). By comparison, 2015 had 9 catchers out of 143, and only 1 has become anywhere near the 50 FV he was projected for (alfaro). It feels like the evaluation industry is trying to make "fetch" happen at the catcher position. Or is there a new found focus in baseball to drafting and developing this position
Kevin Goldstein
1:17
Yeah, I'm not a big find of reading too much into trends like this. I think these kind of things are cyclical and in three years you could be asking us "Where are all the catchers?"
KevinT
1:18
I dont think you guys do this, but some other outlets define a pitcher as #2 upside. How does that definition work when you have a spike of #1 starter years. Thinking of a Jake Arrieta type who had elite seasons but lacked longevity. Was he a #1 guy and then regressed or was he always a 2/3, who had a few years of 90%
Eric A Longenhagen
1:18
the latter, for me
same as anyone else, like is Carlso Gomez a 7 because he peaked there? I don't think so. Still good!
Ed H
1:19
How much time do you spend looking at other lists (e.g., Baseball America, Keith Law) to see the amount of convergence/divergence with your own rankings?
Kevin Goldstein
1:19
I haven't looked at either of those lists to this day. And that's not an insult. I think both BA and Keith do fine, very fine actually, work, but I think it's exceptionally important to avoid groupthink or any kind of matching mentality when evaluating players.
Jake
1:20
Who's one or two 50 FV guys you're very confident will be at least 55 by this time next year?
Tess Taruskin
1:20
Not sure I'd throw the word "very" in there, but I think Luis Matos could make the jump if his '22 is anything like his '21.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:21
i'd second that
Eric A Longenhagen
1:21
and the group of 20 year old ranked right there with him
zurzles
1:21
As an Orioles fan I'm glad to see him there, but I was certainly shocked to see Rodriguez at 3 (or ANY pitcher that high after the bit about Whitley/Gore/etc in the Primer). Is there any concern over his low pitch counts in the minors/that he could be exposed after being stretched out?
Kevin Goldstein
1:21
Sure, maybe a little, But the quality of his stuff is absolutely overwhelming.
Dan
1:22
My first grader just started his first season of "coach pitch". How soon will you be adding him to The Board?
Kevin Goldstein
1:22
The three of us have a call on lining up to 2034 board this afternoon. Please send video.
Johnny Boi
1:22
Steven Kwan's Hit FV is eye opening, don't see that too often and don't see another on the top 100. Are there other notable prospects with 80 Hit FV?
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