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FanGraphs 2022 Top 100 Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
1:22
I think Wander Franco and Willians Astudillo, and maybe Madrigal? are the only guys I've ever done it with. ;)
David Fletcher maybe should've been an 80 but wasn't
Ms Fan
1:24
Brandon Williamson ahead of Brash or Hancock?
Kevin Goldstein
1:24
Clearly, we are monsters. But seriously, Williamson has really good pitch data, like REALLY good and definitely has a chance to start.
JR
1:24
Wasn't Johan Rojas originally a 50FV on the Phillies list? If so, what was the reason for the drop?
Eric A Longenhagen
Jefferson
1:25
I love the hit tool breakdown of pitch selection and bat control grades, but I don't understand why the don't correlate more with the overall hit tool grade. Josh Smith has 55 selection and 60 bat control, but only a 50 hit tool. Liover peguero has 50 selection and 55 bat control but a 60 overall hit tool. Is this strictly a judgment call about the "sum of the parts"?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:25
contact quality is part of it, like is Kevin Newman an 80 bat even though he has 80 bat control? probably not
but we tend to be pretty consistent at considering the components in the way you're describing, deviateing once in a while when we thin kit's appropriate
Ken Giles Right Hook
1:26
How gloomy is the forecast on MacKenzie Gore?
Kevin Goldstein
1:26
I don't know if I would say gloomy as much as I would say there's just so much unknown. We just haven't seen the pitcher we once loved for a VERY long time, and for a variety of reasons.
szakyl
1:27
Nolan Jones's blurb lists him as having begun to play RF and eventually move to 1B. What's the reasoning behind listing him in LF?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:27
Ah, it should probably say RF, will fix on The Board
Matt
1:27
Which guys on the list have the biggest bust/boom potential?  Ie 50% chance of being a bust and 50% chance of 70+FV?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:28
there's a distribution graph under each player that outlines this, and if you look on The Board each player has a "variance" grade (high, medium, low) that also illustrates this across the entire player population
it says "risk" on The Board because "variance" doesn't fit nice and snug in the column header 2022 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs
Sammy'sCork
1:29
What chances do you all give Shane Baz of starting vs relieving? I noticed you had him as a single inning reliever and I was curious because it would seem to me he has the stuff and command to be an effective starter + it seems the Rays intend to use him that way, at least initially...
Eric A Longenhagen
1:29
i goofed and didn't change his designation from last year, we have him in as a starter
Liam
1:30
Has Quinn Priester not developed as expected, or is it more a case of alt site hype was a little overblown
Kevin Goldstein
1:30
Quinn Preister's fastball shape is a glaring concern.
Critical Cubs Fan
1:31
How was lower minors performance evaluated “post” pandemic v pre?
Kevin Goldstein
1:31
There are definitely some things to consider, especially how some of the rules in some leagues have effected the cadence of games, and how the reduction of short-season ball has changed the talent levels.
Jimbo Jackson
1:31
How do you recommend thinking about a guy like Bo Naylor, who completely falls off a cliff?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:31
If you want to be optimistic about it you should look at MJ Melendez's 2019.
Jack B
1:32
Did any of you have anyone over Adley?
Kevin Goldstein
1:32
Don't think so, but we did hear from some industry people who didn't have him No. 1....unanimity is pretty impossible when you talk to as many folks as this group did.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:33
yeah, even the Trout, Harper, Moore year, right?
Rutherford Ke' Hayes
1:33
You all sniffed out Matos (the prospect, not the former Oriole who receives a brief nod/mention in The Wire) really early and noted some of his risk points in his write-up. If he could demonstrate that one thing was not a concern (ball/K recognition, patience, ability to remain a CF), which would elevate him the most?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:33
only Wander overwhelming unanimity since I've been doing this
Tess Taruskin
1:33
"All the pieces matter." -Lester Freamon
Andy Cardamone
1:34
As former Fangraphs top 100 pitchers, what can we expect from Jhoan Duran and Yerry Rodriguez moving forward?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:34
Duran was throwing hard but not quite as hard as peak in the Fall, Yerry we have a 45 on
Ferguson
1:35
There's been a few reports that Austin Martin had a wrist injury for most of 2021, very well could be a reason for the lack of power ... If he shows a little more pop to be closer to 50-55 , does that change his ranking ??
Kevin Goldstein
1:35
If he adds power, or I guess more accurately, re-finds his college power, yes, it will change that ranking.
Guest
1:35
Prospects #33 through #100 and change are all the same FV, so the individual ranking placements  seem very subjective.
Kevin Goldstein
1:35
It's a prospect list. How can it not be subjective?
Jacques Pederson
1:37
Is a 80FV pitching prospect possible?
Kevin Goldstein
1:37
Anything is possible. Prior and Strasburg the last to get some 80s?
Mucho Maas
1:37
I watched a handful of Julio’s at-bats with Arkansas and it seemed like when he was hot he was getting an awful lot of infield hits by beating out choppers while the fielders were playing back or by smashing a grounder off of a fielder’s glove. Should Seattle fans be concerned that his average isn’t representative of his actual hit tool?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:37
Good eye. Don't think I'd say they should be "concerned" and his bat path has been altered over the last year or so (tough to remember exactly when Julio started loading his hands that way) and he might still be getting comfy with it. . maybe you round round down the hit grade by a half?
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