JotCast | FanGraphs 2023 Opening Day Chat

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5 Run Homer

7:20

It’s so disappointing that Hicks isn’t very good. When he first came up I thought he was gonna be Chapman 2.0

Ben Clemens

7:21

He still could be. When he's locating his slider batters just can't do anything with it. He's had just atrocious injury luck, and i find it weird that they keep trying to make him a starter

Ben Clemens

7:21

But yeah the development path definitely did not pan out the way it looked like it was headed for a while there

Farhandrew Zaidman

7:21

Is Hicks a victim of poor pitch shape like Greene, Brudsar, etc? High velo that plays way down?

Ben Clemens

7:22

A little bit yeah. It's more of a flat four-seamer than a seam-shifted sinker. But he's occasionally had good strikeout stuff, largely in the Greene style I throw super hard so my breaker is unhittable style

Farhandrew Zaidman

7:23

The more I learn about pitch shape the less I care about velo tbh

Ben Clemens

7:24

I think it's not quite as easy as saying that, like batters don't do much damage on the Hicks fastball. But for strikeouts, yeah, velo is just not enough. Overall I agree that shape matters way more than people talk about. That's what is so amazing about Roki Sasaki, 100 with great shape

Steve O

7:26

I think Varsho regresses quite a bit this year. I don't think he's as elite in the OF as his numbers suggested last year and he ran a .302 OBP and 106 wRC+. I just have a hard time believing in guys who don't get on base. He's still a 3 WAR player I think, but I don't think he's a 5 WAR guy.

Ben Clemens

7:26

I agree with this take. I think he gets a little too much shine b/c of the fantasy implications

Nicholas

7:29

I was looking up Varsho earlier today, and he always hit over .300 in the minors, with a much better K rate. Likely that he can regain some of that, or is it just the jump in quality of pitching in the majors?

Ben Clemens

7:29

I was wondering about this too. I think he chases enough that major league pitchers were just not gonna let him have low strikeout rates

7:30

But that's a weak answer, I'm not exactly sure of why

7:32

Incidentally, a programming note, I'm gonna stick around until the end of the Cardinals game, and then I think we'll call it a day.

This chat has been great, but I'm at the chatter equivalent of 110 pitches

Farhandrew Zaidman

7:33

If Dan is in the chat - you can't just go throwing AI generated images of Snoop Dogg and Manfred on my timeline, lol. Some warning at least!

Ben Clemens

7:34

He's not here anymore, but you've made me very curious to see this.

Leo Morgenstern

7:34

Yeah I'm gonna have to check in on that

Farhandrew Zaidman

7:34

Gotta pump those numbers up, Ben! Chatters 100 years ago would go 12 hours 3 times a week until their arms fell off! Nerds are ruining the chat!1!1

Ben Clemens

7:34

Yeah, but FanGraphs metrics show that my answers get less effective after I answer the same chatter's third question

Leo Morgenstern

7:35

This chat has been really fun! And this Jays Cardinals game seems like it's been incredible, wish I wasn't blacked out

Ben Clemens

7:35

Yeah, that's brutal. It's gotta be one of the best games this year :)

Leo, do you walk Arenado here?

2/3, no one out, Knizner on deck

7:36

I wouldn't walk him, but I think a lot of managers would

Leo Morgenstern

7:36

I'd always be hesistant to issue an IBB, but this seems like a pretty good time

Ben Clemens

7:36

I hate loading the bases with no one out

Leo Morgenstern

7:36

get a force play in order

Ben Clemens

7:36

but uh.... should have walked him

Leo Morgenstern

7:36

Yes indeed

7:37

in play, runs

Ben Clemens

7:37

I have an "In Play, Run(s)" t-shirt and I like to wear it around so I can see who follows baseball

7:38

The crazy thing is that Knizner was a bat-first prospect

5 Run Homer

7:38

This bullpen is gonna be a real problem, and not in the basketball Twitter way

Leo Morgenstern

7:38

My god, how bad was his glove? :)

bosoxforlife

7:38

Everything about baseball is situational. Even though this was only the 8th you can't let Arenado hit there.

Ben Clemens

7:39

I mean, I would've let him try, but I do think it's probably close either way. It just can't be that different, you're so unlikely to allow 0 runs when it's bases loaded nobody out

late2theparty

7:40

have we talked about ben picking the o's to be the AL 2 seed?

Ben Clemens

7:41

Briefly early. Hey, they have the most wins in baseball right now.

Appa Yip Yip

7:41

Intentional walks are cowardly. Win with dignity, lose with honour. The Klingon way.

Ben Clemens

7:41

I like to identify with the Federation, but uh yeah, when it comes to IBB's specifically I'm with you

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