JotCast | FanGraphs 2023 Opening Day Chat

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Steve O

7:42

Is it me or have bullpen arms gotten so good that fans of mid-range teams think they'll have a good bullpen before the season starts? Then the games start.

Ben Clemens

7:42

The raw stuff that every bullpen has now is just outrageous. And then yeah, they throw one off your catcher's knee pad and you're like wait what the hell?

bosoxforlife

7:42

I think I am looking at bases loaded 1 out after Knizner bats. I would prefer that but it really is a close call and my 20/20 hindsight has always been perfect.

Leo Morgenstern

7:43

I've gotta run now, but thanks again for chatting everybody! And thanks to Ben for sticking to the bitter end of this one. I hope for his sake the Cardinals hold on

Ben Clemens

7:43

Yeah Knizner has just not looked like a comfortable major league hitter basically ever

See you later Leo, fun chat today

7:44

Guys, is it bad to walk Whit Merrifield on four pitches?

Pat

7:45

Is P(0 R | 2+3, 0 out) < P(0 R | loaded, 0 out)? Close and late, that might be the more important consideration than total run expectation (prolly want to do P(1 R) and P(2 R) too)

Ben Clemens

7:45

It's a good question that I should probably look up. My guess is that bases loaded is more likely to score a run because of walks

Saladpans

7:46

I'd like to know if anyone in this chat would stand in/has stood in against 104. And what level of baseball they've played. I would never.

Ben Clemens

7:46

oh goodness gracious no

bosoxforlife

7:46

I know wins are meaningless but is there some way not to give a win to Hicks.

Ben Clemens

7:46

Just give the win to Arenado, who would complain?

Ben Clemens

7:47

Knizner being forced into the game, then bunt popping out and dropping a foul tip for a third strike, is the kind of bad start he really needed to avoid

5 Run Homer

7:47

I know a way we can avoid giving the win to Hicks

Triple play to end the game

7:48

I can feel it. Or maybe Springer gets his... fifth hit...?

Ben Clemens

7:49

I'm not sure Springer has ever been retired.

Ben Clemens

7:49

ah, that's appropriate

7:50

GREAT baserunning by Kiermaier

Vin

7:50

Springer winning the batting title this year

Appa Yip Yip

7:50

Wtf is this game

Triple play to end the game

7:50

maybe Bichette gets his fifth then, as well?

Ben Clemens

7:50

I'm almost afraid to calculate the babip in this game

7:51

Is it .500?

Okay the Jays have 30 BIP today and 19 hits

7:52

lol

Cardinals a piddling 13-30

Farhandrew Zaidman

7:53

I did see Eno predict that this year may have the highest BABIP...ever. So there's that.

SadTiger

7:53

Is Helsley only ok now?

Ben Clemens

7:53

Maybe! He's a reliever. But definitely too soon to say after the two bloop hits the Jays strung together

Vin

7:53

MLB is testing out a new ball in this game that somehow finds every hole imaginable

Triple play to end the game

7:53

Didn't the Cardinals offer Ryan Helsley to Toronto for Danny Jansen?

Ben Clemens

7:53

Never confirmed, but I would believe it.

bosoxforlife

7:55

Again, I would have walked Vlad and pitched to Varsho..

Ben Clemens

7:56

I think that has a lot more merit, just because there's already one out

PRobably still close of course

SadTiger

7:56

And a walk, and a lot of contact...IDK he was just so dominant for parts of last year seems different in that IP

Morbo

7:56

Helsley is tipping. After he comes set he dropped his elbows a bit like he is settling in before he throws the fastball but not the change or the curve

5 Run Homer

7:56

I’d have done Helsley for Jansen over the trades for Swanson and Varsho

Morbo

7:58

As soon as I saw merrifield talking to Vladdy Jr after he scored I started looking

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