You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Return toFanGraphs
FanGraphs 2025 Wild Card Chat
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
Ben Clemens
6:01
I thought about it for a while and I'm still not sure
Davy Andrews
6:02
Oh wow, me neither. He has graded out pretty well there!
Ben Clemens
6:02
Like yes, McMahon is good at third. I won't remotely dispute that. But Caballero is a plus shortstop
Davy Andrews
6:02
Alright, I'm on board, Neelix.
Nick Perry
6:03
129 WRC+ vs 44 WRC+
Davy Andrews
6:04
To be fair, the career numbers are much closer. 116 vs. 72. Still not close, but much closer.
Guest
6:04
Since the game hasn't started yet, I do want to ask my off topic question. What's a good SS comp for Bobby Witt's career so far? Hanley almost feels like it...young A-Rod? Like both of those guys became power monsters and Witt is for now just the ideal imagined SS. 20-30/30, .300ish, best defender in baseball. And it's strange to me that I can't think of an obvious comp for a shortstop like him? Maybe there's one I'm missing.
Ben Clemens
6:04
Yeah, I mean it's not perfect but Young A-Rod is where I am going in my head
6:05
Does it all, big frame, you can project more power easily
it's a little different because he's also a speedster, but I think that betting on Witt to improve his power output over time would be very wise
Davy Andrews
6:06
Let me hit you with a crazy one just for fun: Maikel Garcia.
(2025 version only.)
Guest
6:07
The problem is of course that by age 27 A-Rod had 6 straight 40 homer seasons (Holy Shit!)
Nick Perry
6:07
ARod did have 42 wins through his age 25 season (including a 9 win season as a 20 year old!)
Guest
6:08
Young Barry Larkin stole 40 in 1988 and went 20/20 in '91
Ben Clemens
6:09
Right, yeah,A-Rod had one of the best 20's in baseball history. Witt is great. But A Rod is a level ahead. It's like, same style, but not as good
Nick Perry
6:09
Young Tulo has a lot a similarities (hopefully Witt doesn't follow that injury path)
Ben Clemens
6:09
that's the reason I don't love the comp
Davy Andrews
6:09
Hey! The baseball's starting.
Ben Clemens
6:09
let's gooooooo
Guest
6:09
do you guys play geometry dash
Davy Andrews
6:12
I found this stressful. Also, I died immediately.
Davy Andrews
6:10
Pardon me while I look this up and try it.
Ben Clemens
6:10
This Fried changeup is making me want more lefties in the Boston lineup ;)
Guest
6:11
I see TOR around 48% to win ALDS. I'm curious what you guys have as the series probability for NYY or BOS
Ben Clemens
6:12
Our playoff odds have a 'make LDS' field, which has it 57.4/42.6 Yankees edge
6:13
That said, I like the ZiPS game-by-game odds more for looking into individual playoff matchups, our system is purposefully generalized and robust, whereas Dan takes advantage of the narrow scope of the playoffs to model specific pitching matchups and team composition
whereas we look at the overall team
and THOSE have it 65/35 NYY
Guest
6:14
BrewJays ws would save vaseball
Davy Andrews
6:14
This would be so fun.
Nick Perry
6:14
65/35 seems like a lot. Is most of that Rodon > Bello?
Ben Clemens
6:15
Basically no
Per ZiPS, every matchup massively favors the Yankees
RS win probability by game: 42.6%, 40.5%, 36.8%
I think that ZiPS looks at the Red Sox lineup and goes eh, wait, what?
these guys are a playoff team
Davy Andrews
6:16
Can we ask Dan to run it with Nate Eaton pitching instead of playing right field?
Ben Clemens
6:16
But I would imagine that they do not project particularly well given their diminished current state
Nick Perry
6:16
all fair... Crochet isn't bad though
Connecting…