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Ben Clemens
6:16
I mean, I don't make the odds
and to be honest, it's not like Dan 'makes' the odds either, he trains the model
Guest
6:17
Yankees are favored more in game one than the Dodgers are. Definitely interesting, and seems to run counter to most previews of these series. I assume ZiPS thinks of Judge as Judge when projecting the Yankee offense, and I guess we'll see
Ben Clemens
6:17
We're not trying to say that these are perfect reflections of reality, but I'm confident in saying that Dan is working hard at avoiding bias and creating the best odds he can
I'd argue thath probably, things like 'oh Judge won't be good in the playoffs b/c of, you know, things' are more likely to be guilty of bias
Welland Jackfish
6:18
mlb has "The Rivalry" as headline for Yankees-Sox which is just leaning into the East Coast bias
Ben Clemens
6:18
Haha, a)sure but b)I live in SF and I think of this as the biggest baseball rivalry
Guest
6:19
can you run ZiPS for a scenario where Ohtani was on the plane
Welland Jackfish
6:19
I grew up going to Candlestick and am contractually obligated to say Giants/Dodgers is better for most of its history
Nick Perry
6:19
I've lived my entire life within an hour of the Pacific Ocean, and yes, this is The Rivalry in baseball
fried rice
6:20
reverse splits for fried each of the last two years... i think the fastball shape is the primary culprit
Ben Clemens
6:20
fastball shape is great, I aree
agree*
I think that his extreme variation helps too. Plus the changeup
I mean, Max Fried is just awesome in a lot of ways
6:21
That said... the Sox don't have a lot of great options here. Like, are you dying to have Wilyer Abreu and Nathaniel Lowe in the lineup?
Leland
6:22
Aaron Judge is 1-1 so far in his postseason redemption tour
Ben Clemens
6:22
psh, oh for one on homers
what a bum
Davy Andrews
6:22
Seriously, 1.000 BABIP much?
Nick Perry
6:23
Crochet vs Fried in game 1 does give some hope to all of us who's team didn't make the playoffs... If your team has the best farm system in baseball to trade from and/or can pay market rate for the best starter in free agency
Ben Clemens
6:23
I absolutely love that Fried has 'sweeper middle/middle' as an option to righties as his first pitch
Guest
6:24
This game is exactly how we expected it to go between the contact-manager getting a big double play and the strikeout monster racking up the Ks.
Ben Clemens
6:25
Haha yes, just don't look too closely at the jerseys
Guest
6:26
I remember seeing a theory on reddit that Amy Adams's character in the Starfighter movie will be the new Mara Jade. Do you think that would be hype?
Ben Clemens
6:26
Okay I waited for a commercial break to click on this one, and honestly I'm a little out of date on my Star Wars knowledge, but I am not optimistic that they'd make Mara Jade as interesting as she was in the EU, so I think I'm against it
Bosoxforlife
6:26
Actually I am very happy to see Refsnyder in the lineup. He absolutely rakes against left handers and is preferable to Yoshida. I am already wondering if he has a spot on the 2026 roster which I am all in favor of.
Davy Andrews
6:27
I agree. I love how well Refsnyder has hit.
Guest
6:28
a Seattle Vancouver rivalry would be better if they actually expanded
Davy Andrews
6:28
I agree with this too. That would be so fun.
Ben Clemens
6:29
I'd be really into it
Phil
6:29
Can we ask non-playoff questions? Wondering about Giolito's option. I think he hit the innings threshold to get to the 19 million one, which seems a lot for a 2-WAR guy who just posted his lowesr K rate since 2018.
Davy Andrews
6:29
There are no rules here, Phil.
Guest
6:31
I'd really like to see a team score four runs. I like pitching but I miss runs
Ben Clemens
6:31
Let's give it more than two games, imo
but the postseason is generally lower-scoring, unfortunately
Guest
6:31
are we ready for volpe's linsanity run
Davy Andrews
6:32
I would love to see people trying to wrap their heads around this.
Ben Clemens
6:31
I sadly don't know how we're fixing that
Guest
6:32
Do you all think we'll see a team score more than three runs by the end of today? Seeming less and less likely as this game goes on...maybe the Reds will get a fourth off Tanner Scott?
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