JotCast | FanGraphs After Dark Chat

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Jim Lonborg

9:32

Argh, no Joe Kelly, looks bad maybe. No Eduardo for another month. Now what? Elias? Brian Johnson? Panic? I think my vote is for panic.

Paul Swydan

9:32

Elias or Owens. No need to panic - John Farrell has been panicking plenty for everyone.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:34

Anyone has to be better than Kelly. BTW, I had Kelly as the 13th highest rated injury risk as a pitcher: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mash-report-41816-initial-2016-pain-values/

Ed in Iowa

9:34

Grades are turned in!! The semester's over!! Cubs-Cardinals!! The After Dark Chat!! Exuberance and merriment abound!!!

Paul Swydan

9:35

Hey, congrats Ed! We're pretty excited too.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:35

Yea ... Cubs-Cards

Ed in Iowa

9:36

Do we have any actual evidence that small-ish pitchers get hurt more than big dude pitchers? It seems like we are supposed to look at Pedro Martinez-sized guys and assume they are a bigger injury risk than Curt Schilling-sized guys, but do we actually know that?

Paul Swydan

9:36

Jeff wrote about small pitchers last year at THT, though I don't remember if injuries was part of that piece.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:36

One sec, looking for my THT article from last year

It was in there

The break more, but come back quicker

Paul Swydan

9:37

http://www.hardballtimes.com/short-pitchers-still-getting-short-shrift/

Jeez, I guess that was two years ago. Wow.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:37

At the end of the article

One and a half

Duke

9:38

In a 30 team dynasty league with 40 man rosters, 180 minor leaguers per team, etc.. Super deep. You get it. I'm in a full rebuild and light years away from competing. Just offered my Gregerson for Matt Chapman, Yoan Lopez, Marco Gonzales, and a 2016 7th round draft pick (minors). Thoughts?

Paul Swydan

9:39

Turning Gregerson into anything of value seems like a win, but given that closers are usually super valuable in any league, you might want to survey your other leaguemates to see if they want ot beat that offer.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:40

It's OK. I am trying to move past Gonzales in my dynasty league, but the deal seems fine.

9:40

any reason you can think of for ian desmond taking a 2-1 fastball in the middle of the plate with 1 out and a runner on 3rd?

Paul Swydan

9:40

Nope.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:41

No. He has straight turned into a very bad player.

Von Schloss

9:41

If SD could they'd trade Wil Myers straight up for Trea Turner or Joe Ross, wouldn't they?

Paul Swydan

9:41

Yup.

9:42

It could end up being a historically bad trade for SD, and I say that as someone who hasn't given up on Myers.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:42

Yes, yes they would

Rufus T. Firefly

9:42

Why don't teams have every guy with a little speed bunt at Jon Lester?

Paul Swydan

9:42

Because he's a pro athlete and would adjust eventually.

Also, bunting is super hard.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:43

Agree with Paul

Johnny5Alive

9:43

stephenson? why burn a year to keep bringing him up for spot starts?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:43

I think it will be full time at some point this year. They will play the service time game until then

Paul Swydan

9:43

Probably because they're no longer worried about what he'll do 6-7 years from now, if they ever were to begin with.

Stuafoo

9:45

To what extent to teams have to prove player injuries to the league? Sandoval injury probably not ideal for the sox since it makes him even harder to trade, but it does free up a spot on the roster. Or the whole degrom arm tenderness/sick kid thing. (I don't mean to make light of either situation or cast any doubt on either party, these are just recent examples that got me thinking about this).

Paul Swydan

9:46

I'm pretty sure they don't have to prove anything unless the MLBPA files a complaint. I've been wrong before though.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:47

What Paul said, but they all have to send in injury details to help populated the league injury database which is just a couple years old

9:47

The shift has normally been used against left handed hitters who hit for power. Teams this year have more frequently used shifts against right handed hitters; even those who have more diverse batted ball profiles and I've noticed a lot of weaker contact base hits to the opposite field that would normally be outs. When looking at data that indicates a shift should be applied is there a possibility that that data fails to take into account a hitter's ability to hit the ball to the opposite field (even if it means making only weak contact). More specifically for those hitters who have more even distribution btw fly balls, ground balls, and line drives? Many of these hitters have never had to make an adjustment to try and NOT hit ground balls to the left side. It seems that the data being used fails to take into account a hitter's ability to make a conscious effort to go the other way. The question is bit convoluted so i hope i didn't create any confusion as what I'm trying to get across.

Paul Swydan

9:48

No, I understand the question. I think the answer is that it's still early. Also, teams starting shifting more against right-handed hitters last year. This isn't *that* new.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:49

I get it, but I think teams are shifting fringe players. The obvious ones are shifted with success (see Ortiz), but the success rate drops as more and more players are shifted. I think teams are living on the edge of to or not to shift some players.

Twinkies for lunch

9:50

I really cant see Perkins holding the closer job past the end of the season. He's injury prone and with the Twins not likely contenders I'm sure another team might like him as a 7th or 8th inning guy. Jepsen is a journeyman so I doubt he's the long term answer which leaves me thinking either Trevor May or a kid like Burdi. Who do you like?

Paul Swydan

9:50

I don't like any of those options.

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