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FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 4/5/16
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VanExcel
9:14
How many games would a team of 9 Jay Buhners win?
Paul Swydan
9:14
100. He's got a rocket for an arm!!!!
Guest
9:14
Streaming Kazmir -- Good, bad, or ugly idea?
Paul Swydan
9:15
Good idea.
Rocky Mountain High
9:15
Please rank these COL pitchers: Chad Bettis, Jon Gray, Jeff Hoffman. Do any of them have beyond #3 starter potential (at best)?
Paul Swydan
9:15
For 2016, I'll say Gray, Bettis, Hoffman. Long term, flip Hoffman and Gray. They all can be better than a #3, but the Rockies don't have a great track record, so all three are essentially guilty until proven innocent.
Ben
9:15
Trea turner or javier baez
Paul Swydan
9:16
Trea
A 'Ruf' Start
9:16
Do you think Darin Ruf has the potential to hit at 20-25 HR this year?
Paul Swydan
9:16
Yes, but even if he does, he'll still probably be near replacement level.
The Royals and Diamondbacks
9:16
Now that opening day has passed, what is team is most likely to way out-perform (10-15 wins) their projected record?
Paul Swydan
9:17
Pittsburgh. I think they're way better than an 83 win team.
Gest
9:17
How substantial is the splitter's reputation of leading to injury?
Paul Swydan
9:17
One thing that Jeff Passan noted in his new book (you can read my review over at THT) is that basically every pitch has at one time or another been labeled public enemy #1. I don't think the splitter is more or less guilty than the cutter, the slider or any other pitch.
Lenard
9:18
Thoughts on Carlos Carrasco for Corey Seager. I have Semien and Cesar Hernandez as SS options if I trade him in an OBP league. My top starters are Stroman, Iglesias, Walker, DeScla. I didn't have a whole of draft picks this year. Seager could be kept, but Carrasco can not. I also have Trout and Bryant as long-term keepers.
Paul Swydan
9:18
I think you're in good position to make that trade. I think Stroman and Iglesias are a good 1-2, but it'd be good to upgrade, and frankly, there's no guarantee that Seager is good THIS year.
Trainman
9:19
Happy Thorsday! What a 2016 debut for Syndergaard. Is he a top 5 pitcher this year or am I being too giddy over one dominating start as a happy excitable Mets fan?
Paul Swydan
9:19
Probably both. I think top 10-15 is more reasonable, but he's clearly very good.
Bryan CA
9:19
The Giants lineup seems to be underrated nationally while the starting rotation seems to be too highly thought of. The Giants have not been a pitching team since two World Series ago. True?
Paul Swydan
9:19
I'd say that's mostly true.
Trainman
9:19
Hey guys appreciate these chats. I drafted Carlos Gomez in an AL only league, I spent $31 on him for the 25-25 upside in that park, plus the lineup is really good. I have a lot of bargains so I could overpay for Gomez, but do you think he can reach that 25-25 season with an .850 OPS or am I reaching way way too high? What are your personal projections for Gomez?
Paul Swydan
9:20
I think 25-25 is on the table for sure, but those marks will depend on how healthy he can stay.
Stenzy
9:21
Do the Giants end up having to trade for a SP at the deadline? Would they be able to pull it off without including a Williamson or an Arroyo? Susac trade value?
Paul Swydan
9:21
I don't think they will, no. Or, at least, not a big-time starter. I think they are set in terms of pitchers for a playoff series, and while they might need a 4 or 5 to help them GET to the playoffs, they won't need a substantial trade to land one.
Bryan CA
9:22
How does a team with no front office turnover like the Giants go from producing stud pitchers and dud hitters for so long to just the opposite now?
Paul Swydan
9:22
I think that they're just good at player development, and the players they're graduating now are just a reflection of their drafting style as time has progressed.
Going Going Kang
9:22
Bautista came within 3 feet of an Oppo dong. Is that like seeing a unicorn?
Paul Swydan
9:24
Huh. Yeah, I guess so. He did hit one last year....
Daniel
9:24
Hi, so people often cite that batting order doesn't have much effect on a season perhaps two wins a year. Meanwhile, we often speak about sequencing having a large effect on teams out performing their BaseRuns and subsequent projections. Couldn't then, sequencing play a large role within a lineup where for some teams the order can be worth a more substantial number of wins, Not that it would be in anyway predictable or repeatable. So are we then treating batting order too flippantly?
Paul Swydan
9:25
I think the main takeaway we've found is that batting order doesn't matter for a game or a particular stretch of games. I think if it's something on the magnitude of two wins per year it'd have to be something pronounced, like when the Nats hit Harper in the 6 hole for a whole season. That sort of thing is stupid and can cost a player 50-75 plate appearances a season.
That's different than what we normally see. And when you produce different lineup simulations, they generally don't amount to more than 5-6 runs per season.
9:26
Now, can those 5-6 runs be significant? You betcha.
As for the being flippant part, I think part of that is just our desire to seem like authorities. Things are - to me - much more enjoyable when we try not to be know it alls. And that's coming from someone who has been frequently derided for being a know it all!
elric
9:26
You ever watch any anime, Paul?
Paul Swydan
9:27
Well, if you mean Miyazaki films like Spirited Away and Ponyo, then yes. If you mean other kinds of anime, then no.
Tony
9:28
Should I trade Donaldson for Betts and Longoria? I have Carpenter in OBP league, so Longoria would be depth. 14tms, 5x5(obp)
Paul Swydan
9:28
Well, I'm torn. If you're not going to be playing Longoria, that sort of limits the value. I think that Donaldson for Betts is more or less a push though, so I think you should do it.
Ryan
9:28
Corey Dickerson has no need of this Coors Field you speak about
Paul Swydan
9:28
I absolutely don't mind saying I told you so.
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