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FanGraphs Phillies vs. Padres NLCS Game 1 Chat
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Ben Clemens
8:45
Basically whatever I thought before this postseason, I'd still think
Kyle Kishimoto
8:45
also like, even if rust was a factor it's definitely not enough to make teams want to take a coin flip chance of winning their WC series
Ben Clemens
8:46
I guess the argument would be relative to the previous format. Obviously in the current format you'd always take the bye
Erik
8:46
Aren't all pitches just a spectrum of movement or something
Kyle Kishimoto
8:46
Davy Andrews
8:47
I really loved this.
Ben Clemens
8:47
But I actually think the three games no off days nature is a pretty rough punishment for the non-bye teams. The Phillies only got to start Wheeler and Nola once each. The Braves just, uh, sucked
Did you guys know that Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander each have 13.50 ERA's this postseason? My dad gave me that stat and I loved it too much not to share it
i read fangraphs
8:48
How much does pitch sequencing matter? If every catcher held a random number generator weighted to what overall percentages of each pitch should be thrown (calibrated for handedness, etc. if you really want), would that be meaningfully different from the status quo?
Kyle Kishimoto
8:48
it's something that's quite hard to study but it's been done before. i think there would be an explosion in that type of research if robo umps became a thing and now game calling would likely be the most important catcher defensive skill

https://baseballaheadinthecount.blogspot.com/2021/08/an-attempt-to-mea...
RTJ
8:50
The rust argument has been around forever in the NFL playoff format as well, but in reality playoff games/series are just about random when you have a .640 team playing a .590 team
Kyle Kishimoto
8:50
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:50
Yeah, Lopez/Baumer/Matthews got 75 for MLB
Erik
8:50
That's a great clip. Feels like something more guys should experiment with.
Ben Clemens
8:51
It's hard to be Yu Darvish, as it turns out. More people should experiment, but he's probably a unicorn.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:51
Whatever it is, it would have to be a HUGE series
Kyle Kishimoto
8:52
@Dan, I've cited your Padres/Dodgers preview article about a thousand times in the past week, specifically the part about how you would need a 151 game series to give the Dodgers a 90/10 advantage
Ben Clemens
8:52
Darvish is so fun to watch
It's nice of the teams to not get any baserunners so we can ramble on about playoff formats, but I just thought I'd interject that he's great
Kyle Kishimoto
8:52
he's gotta be on a very short list of pitchers who top out at over a foot of sweep and over 20 inches of fastball carry
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:52
That was a fun thing to experiment with!
Ben Clemens
8:53
I like how he threw 94 past him, and then just came back with 97
like, that's not cool!
8:54
The spin on that splitter was very aesthetically pleasing
Probably had a crazy amount of seam-shifted wake, too. It caught one seam more or less perfectly on the back of the ball
RTJ
8:55
I assume the AI has a nightmare of a time identifying categories of pitches that Darvish is throwing ?
Kyle Kishimoto
8:55
oh yeah, absolutely. pitchinfo thinks basically everything he throws is a slider, but hawkeye distinguishes between cutters and sliders pretty well.
Ben Clemens
8:56
Ah yes. Trying to hit a home run is doing the pitcher a favor
My least favorite 'here's how to hit' argument
i read fangraphs
8:57
If he really wanted to mess with the pitcher, he'd go for a walk
Ben Clemens
8:57
Well, that's only leading off an inning where you trail, obviously
But at that point you should definitely be trying to walk not hoer
homer*
bosoxforlife
8:58
How close to impossible is it for the Giants in 2021 and the Orioles in 2022 to both come to very, very close to touching their 99th percentile? One seems okay but back to back years tests the limits of probability.
AvatarDan Szymborski
8:58
Long term, I don't have more +99th percentiles than expected by random chance
9:01
You should have a 99th percentile team in a quarter of seasons
Ben Clemens
9:01
Wait, uh, John Smoltz says he doesn't like scoring runs early
Okay this is absurd
Davy Andrews
9:01
Oh man.
Ben Clemens
9:02
It's just so frustrating to have this as the voice of the playoffs with no one saying "wait John this sounds weird"
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