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FanGraphs Phillies vs. Padres NLCS Game 1 Chat
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Kyle Kishimoto
9:02
someone needs to make a john smoltz galaxy brain meme
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:02
And in any case, the O's were only 97th!@
9:03
The playoff odds were near 0 because ZiPS didn't expect that 83 would make the AL much
Ben Clemens
9:04
I understand that he's a gruff old legend who calls it like he sees it and doesn't take any crap from anybody, but I dunno, Aaron Goldsmith has asked him to elaborate when they do games together and it's worked out well
9:05
I had someone ask me whether I'd consider our odds a sham if the Orioles got within 10 games of a playoff spot
Kyle Kishimoto
9:05
was that person Adam Wainwright?
Ben Clemens
9:05
And I think I said "No, wait, what?"
I still think Wainwright meant it a little tongue in cheek
9:06
But maybe that's just b/c he's my favorite
Kyle Kishimoto
9:06
i loved that article you wrote that was like "nah we're right, x% of teams historically with x% playoff odds have made it"
Ben Clemens
9:07
I have no idea if we're right! But we seem less wrong than the alternative of guessing randomly
"Both teams are waiting for a mistake to hit, but there haven't been many"
these guys are both pumping middle middle fastballs lol
The 6ix
9:08
Congrats to Meg on her Mariners game three article. It was poetry; everyone should go read it (and then come back here).
Guest Slider
9:08
Even Haldabrand tried a walk with Galadriel before going for thehomer
Kyle Kishimoto
9:08
the philadephia philadelphias are on the board!
Ben Clemens
9:09
juuuuuuust enough
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:09
The Philadelphiers
Ben Clemens
9:09
If I were facing Harper, I'd be feeding him fastballs
I know that doesn't make much sense historically but he broke his thumb
Sharps
9:10
Does Darvish have a good shot at having the biggest mph difference between the average of his 20 slowest pitches of the season and 20 fastest?
Kyle Kishimoto
9:10
darvish's difference is about 30 mph (68 to 97.7), unless greinke has thrown that many eephuses i would guess he's the highest
Davy Andrews
9:11
Harper heard you, Ben.
Ben Clemens
9:12
He sure did!
I still like the approach though
MikeC
9:12
Verducci pulling out the axl rose comp for darvish..disavow
Kyle Kishimoto
9:13
as a pitcher i generally wouldn't complain about an opposite field non barreled fly ball, but harper is just too strong
Ben Clemens
9:13
I was not expecting a Guns n Roses reference
Davy Andrews
9:13
And how is it not about Harper's headbands?
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:13
Bohm seemed mildly displeased
Ben Clemens
9:14
Dan the Mild
Tstats
9:14
Kyle, I did the Smoltz galaxy brain, how can I put the image here
Kyle Kishimoto
9:14
you could upload to imgur
Erik
9:14
If the typical starting pitcher could add a pitch that was pretty unexceptional but passable enough to throw 5% of the time, should he?
Ben Clemens
9:14
My guess: yes
My research on this: nonexistent
9:15
Unless it cut into training time for improving their other pitches, which seems totally believable
Kyle Kishimoto
9:15
I believe for 2 pitch guys adding a 3rd a small fraction of the time, even a below average pitch, is generally good
Davy Andrews
9:15
I imagine it would depend on the quality of his other offerings and how it played off them. Does it tunnel with something else and make it better?
Kyle Kishimoto
9:16
you can read more about tunneling (and how cutters are a great example of the pitch davy is talking about) here!

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/8/23/the-mystic-art-...
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