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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
11:52
Good afternoon. We'll get started shortly. Hopefully, I'll be able to get to everyone's questions - the queue isn't too deep yet.
If I don't get to your query, you can reach out to me directly on Twitter @baseballateam.
11:54
A little bit of background about myself: I've been writing about fantasy baseball since 2010 and full time since 2014. You're most likely to have seen my work on NBC SportsEDGE (Rotoworld) or FanGraphs. I also covered the coveted Saturday night shift for MLBTR way back in '14-'15.
Rich C
11:54
No question at the moment, just glad to see Bogfella with MLBTR!
Brad Johnson
11:56
Notably, I am not Bogfella.
There are two Brad Johnsons in the fantasy industry.
Dollar pitcher night
11:58
How many people ask you for a sleeper pick?
Brad Johnson
11:59
Most! And honestly, it's a good, safe question. Every fantasy analyst has a couple dozen players they're just waiting to tout.
12:00
First guy who comes to mind for me is Oneil Cruz. He had one of the hardest hits of the entire 2021 season despite putting just five balls in play. He's a mutant too.
12:01
Scouting opinions vary, but the ceiling is worth chasing for the negligible cost.  He's going around pick 240 in NFBC drafts.
12:02
In a typical 12-team mixed format, he's liable to go unpicked or else in the last rounds.
Michael
12:02
Hey Brad,  Thanks for taking Fantasy Baseball questions.  I have played in many leagues over the past 6 years winning 50% of them AND I have no clue what I am doing.  It has been all good luck for me and the fact that I must be playing against some real bad opponents.  Any Reference sites you can recommend that might help me be a better Fantasy Manager?
Brad Johnson
12:04
Personally, I was born and raised on FanGraphs. Almost literally. I fell into the sabermetrics rabbit hole in 2008-09 while writing econ papers. FanGraphs was the gateway to most of my research.
12:05
I also use NBC Season Pass resources. Full disclosure, I contribute to those. I no longer write for FanGraphs and still strongly recommend them as a baseline resource.
12:06
If you want to get into Statcast, then Baseball Savant is a must. It's not as intuitive/user friendly for advanced queries, but they have some basic dashboards that anybody can figure out.
Ben
12:07
How much should positional scarcity impact my auction budget?
Brad Johnson
12:07
I'd need to know more about your league to be very specific.
12:08
Generally, catcher is the only truly "scarce" position. Especially in 2C formats.
SBs, Ws, and SVs have become scarce categories.
12:09
Hopefully you've noticed my weekly column going out as part of the Front Office. Each of SBs, Ws, and SVs are going to get a detailed look in upcoming weeks.
12:11
As for targeting catchers early, I might try putting up JT Realmuto with my first nomination. My thought is that leaguemates planning to go big at catcher might be lasered on Salvy or Smith. Might let JTR go at a bargain.
12:13
Auctions are on the agenda for my next FO fantasy column.
12:14
I advise attacking whatever worries you early on. That way, if your fears are correct, then you can shift to Plan B while most everybody is still on the board. Auctions are all about finding the most efficient path to spend your budget.
12:15
So if catchers or scarce categories are the concern, then hit them early, acquire them if you can, and if you can't, at least you learned in time to shift your roster design.
Ben
12:15
My 6x6 head  to head league has slots for six starting pitchers. Pretty standard otherwise.  How much does that skew SP auction values?
Brad Johnson
12:16
The slots don't actually matter. At least not much. If you have enough bench space or the rules allow you to stream, you'll want to keep tabs on any good SP-eligible relievers.
12:18
Now, if you have NO bench, then this 6 SP format does put some upward pressure on ace price tags. That's because the H2H decision for pitchers is generally quality or volume. If you can't pump extra starts, then quality and volume are the same and you'll want to acquire as many top arms as possible.
I don't think that's what you're saying is happening - it's rare for leagues to be set up that way.
12:19
More likely, you can only start 6 SP per day/week but can carry more.
12:20
I will say also, my favorite H2H strategy is to monopolize as many of the tippy-top aces as possible. They're the most reliable sources of category wins.
(it's also a fragile strategy due to pitcher attrition)
Bearded Texas Hulk
12:21
Who do see you as the best breakout candidate this season.
Brad Johnson
12:22
Well, I mentioned Oneil Cruz who I think has a credible chance to be a Judge-ian caliber talent with SS eligibility. Not saying that's the 50th percentile outcome, but I can see similar tools (less patience).
12:23
He can also run enough to help in SBs which is always clutch. Give me a minute and I'll work on my "best" choice.
12:27
Ok, I have couple more guys poised for brilliance. Jonathan India has incredible acumen. Tools aren't nuts by any measure, but he could really put things together in an early-Alex Bregman sort of way. Has that tiny home park and more than enough pop to generate 30 HR. I think the K% will improve too which should help to bump his average. He's a guy who can and will make adjustments so we almost have to wait to see if he makes good choices in 2022 or needs a couple years to fully settle in.
12:30
The other I want to mention in Dylan Carlson who's shown a lot less on the adjustment front. He just oozes ability anytime I watch him. I'm always nonplussed when I reference his final 2021 stats because he just looks so good at the plate. Entering his age 23 season coming off a mixed campaign. Doesn't run as much as was initially billed. Had an unexpected hard contact problem. Not that he's making soft contact either. I think that's where he'll spike value. Bump up with 30% to 40% hard contact and we're talking about a lot of extra hits and HR over 650 PA.
Tony
12:30
Hi Brad. I have 8 Scoresheet teams and am interested in anything you have to say about Scoresheet. Do you play Scoresheet?
Brad Johnson
12:32
Hey Tony, I'm sorry to say I have barely any experience with Scoresheet. I advised a few colleagues ages ago when I was too insecure to admit that I didn't have a handle on a format. I won't be the best guy to help, though you're free to shoot ideas past me. It's not SO different from other simulation style games I do know like OOTP, Diamond Mind, and What If.
Bob Poogach
12:32
Do either of the Tigers’ Castro’s have a future with the team or in MLB? Willi’s ship seems to have sailed; Harold showed some late season pop and decent defensive versatility.
Brad Johnson
12:33
Well, there's a big difference between fantasy and MLB viability.
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