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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
12:36
I think they're both big leaguers. The question is - are the second division starters or backups? Willi actually has far more potential from a fantasy perspective. He's young enough to figure out a Niko Goodrum-ish toolbox.
12:37
And I bring up Goodrum mainly because I see potential for multi-position eligible 15 HR/15 SB output.
I'm not targeting either Castro to be clear.
Jeremy
12:37
Keeper head to head league, penalty to keep players moves up 1 round in year one, 2 rounds in year 2, etc.... Who should I keep with my 2 spots: Kelenic (9), India (10), Croneworth (17)
Brad Johnson
12:38
That is TOUGH.
12:39
I think India and Cronenworth are definitely a value at those slots while Kelenic is more of a mystery. He's also the one most likely to turn into a fringe-first rounder. Cronenworth is more of a core performer with a ton of eligibilities.
My first piece of advice is to NOT decide anything until you have to
12:40
But to answer your question, I'd lean Kelenic and India. I don't like to use keepers to protect my floor when I only have a very limited number. Croney is a floor guy.
12:41
Side note: In case people are still confused which Brad Johnson I am, I'm the one who writes Peripheral Prospects with Alex Chamberlain. One of our claims to fame is being first to tout Cronenworth. I'm a huge fan of his.
GBS42
12:42
Brad, thanks for the chat. In a 5x5, eight-team, NL-only league that has significant inflation after 30+ years of existence, would you keep Juan Soto for $55? He's obviously a stud, but I'm a bit concerned about runs and RBI given the rest of the lineup.  Thanks?
Brad Johnson
12:43
Yea, without knowing more, my default is to keep ultra-elite players even if the price is nutty. I'm confident I can find $1 gems. If you've struggled with that in the past though, you could think about cutting ties.
12:44
One question to ask: how much does Soto cost in an auction? He's probably about $38-42 without inflation, right?
12:45
$45 according to the FanGraphs auction calculator with Steamer projections.
12:46
So if the inflation is high, I bet there's someone who would spend any amount to get him.
Bruce
12:46
Given the limited number of impactful catchers, at least from a fantasy standpoint, does it make more sense to try to get one of top 3 relatively early, or just punt and take whoever is left toward the end?
Brad Johnson
12:47
We covered this a bit earlier. I would definitely take aim at the top catchers, especially if you're in an auction. For a snake draft, I usually nab my first catchers or closers when all of the top players at other positions feel similar.
12:48
My advice though is to take the path of least resistance. If that involves getting a top catcher, great! If that involves making do with Sean Murphy and watchlisting Gabriel Moreno, that'll probably also be ok.
12:50
Size and depth of your league is obviously relevant too. Big difference if the first guy off the wire is Omar Narvaez vs someone in the Yadi or Tucker Barnhart class.
El
12:50
How long would you typically hold a top prospect on a 12-team roto league? I didn't have IL+ for a NA designation but I found if I held someone last year like, say, Wander for three months I was doing myself is disservice because I need my guys playing.
Brad Johnson
12:52
I usually advise against rostering top prospects for this exact reason. And there's a difference between someone like Wander who the Rays COULD have held down the entire season and Kris Bryant who was clearly going to be up as soon as service manipulation was completed.
12:53
12-team mixed is the most common format. It's also deceptively shallow. You need your assets doing work. And a rookie has to be monstrous to truly impact your season. Historically, the best drafted rookies and undrafted rookies tend to have a similar "Player Value" (under multiple methods).
12:55
Take 2018 for example. Acuna was pretty heavily drafted if I recall. Nobody took Juan Soto. They ended up pretty similarly valued.
Don
12:56
What's happening with the closing situation in Texas? Is Joe Barlow for real? Will they sign a "real" closer?
Brad Johnson
12:57
Honestly, I don't have a pulse on the Rangers bullpen plans. Barlow is an interesting pitcher. He's a contact management guy which tends to be prone to BAD slumps.
He seems to have a knack for avoiding home runs which is important.
12:58
I think he can outperform his mediocre 3.45 FIP/4.56 xFIP. I don't think he's a 1.55 ERA pitcher.
I'd expect in the 3.00-3.50 ERA range which is a passable but unexciting closer
Especially without the strikeouts.
12:59
You're hoping he's Mark Melancon-ish. Which isn't really a resounding comp despite Melancon's good 2021.
This is a class of reliever who playoff contenders want working the 7th inning.
1:00
Or, in the case of some teams, they get to liberate their top RP for the highest leverage spots while using a Melancon or Barlow in the 9th.
Times up, but I only have 3 more questions so I'll finish those out. No new questions please!
Jim T
1:00
Questions about two young Guardians that can be drafted in rounds 10-15 of Roto drafts. Will Andres Gimenez hit enough to stay in the lineup and steal 25 bases? Can Triston McKenzie shed the walks and stay healthy enough to deliver 150 quality innings?
Brad Johnson
1:02
You're asking for me to read the crystal ball which isn't my thing. I will say I'm optimistic about McKenzie in a way I'm not about Gimenez.
1:03
I think the public scouting reports have been wrong about Gimenez since day one. I've seen some 70s slapped on his hit tool, and it's maybe a 50 in reality. AND it plays down due to his lack of selectivity.
1:04
I was impressed with his above average max exit velocity which hints at 5-category upside. A lot has to click.
I want him later than rounds 10-15 in 12-team mixed, but I would throw a dart in the end rounds.
1:06
McKenzie's walk problem last season was new, and he finished on an encouraging note. Asking for 150 IP seems like a stretch, but that's mostly because he's built like a couple sticks glued together.
Reynold
1:06
12-team NL-only, 4x4 keeper league, 260 auction budget, 900 innings, ~15% inflation.. Keep B Suter @ $5? Extend M Yastrzemski from $9 to $14 for 2022&2023?
Brad Johnson
1:09
Those are tough for me to give strong opinions about without being in the league. I'd say those are credible prices, but I'm not excited about either. Yaz in particular is always near the top of my avoid list. I'd like him more with a different home venue. He's a terrible fit for Oracle Park.
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