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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
12:37
He doesn't have the exit velocities for large parks, and he's mostly looked overmatched in the Majors.
Casey
12:37
With Ozuna having already served his suspension and being cleared to start Opening Day what are your expectations for him?
Brad Johnson
12:38
Oh this is a tough one...
12:40
Obviously, his 2020 campaign was one for the ages. And it'll help a lot if the NL gets the DH.
12:41
I can't find a reason to expect anything other than his projection with a high degree of volatility. He projects to about .265/.345/.480 and ~30 HR per 600 PA.
12:42
He's always been one of the most volatile hitters year-to-year.
At least among guys with a league-average baseline
Tom
12:42
Thanks for the chat! 10 team AL only standard 5x5. Please rank the following rookies for fantasy value over: 1) 2022 only; 2) three years- 2022, 2023, 2024.  Thanks!
Brad Johnson
12:43
Tom :(
There aren't any players on this list
Question Asker
12:43
Most rankings and analysis you see for RP is based on Saves.  I'm in a H2H categories league with S+H as one of the categories (and Wins is NOT a category), and with 4 RP spots to fill.  Good closers will still be valuable, but can you recommend any resources out there to help pick middle relievers who won't normally be ranked highly if Holds aren't considered?
Brad Johnson
12:46
I pen the Saves and Steals column for NBC SportsEDGE. The preseason portion of the series explores virtually every reliever. Of course, relievers being relievers, much of the work finding these guys is done in-season. While the content is also saves-oriented, I take special pains to point out pitchers who have top reliever potential.

Oh, and I was talking with my bosses at NBC yesterday. We haven't yet decided on the preseason schedule in light of the lockout.
Mitch M
12:46
George Kirby vs. Joe Ryan in 15 team dynasty?
Brad Johnson
12:47
I (and my sources) prefer Kirby.
12:48
I'm a sucker for pitchers with ~50% GB, more than a strikeout per inning, and a reasonable walk rate.
It's a high floor, high ceiling, high efficiency profile
12:49
Ryan, while benefiting from being in the Majors already, is more smoke and mirrors. I'm edgy about extreme fly ball pitchers - especially SP - until they really prove it. They can turn out to be very HR prone.
12:51
Put this another way... Ryan had a 28.1% GB% last season. Small sample of course. Probably projects more like a 35% GB%.
12:53
Only 4 qualified pitchers were at 35% or below. It's a good list actually. Giolito (33.2%), Cease, Scherzer, and Tyler Anderson (35.1%).
12:55
I'll be right back folks. One of our door knobs broke and now my partner is locked in the laundry room!
1:01
Well that was fun
Fortunately the laundry room has a little opening from our closet so I could pass her tools to remove the door
Blank Frank
1:02
I have high hope for a Cody Bellinger comeback. What round should I strike on a 12-team league to get him without dramatically overpaying for him?
Brad Johnson
1:03
Bellinger currently as a 100 ADP in NFBC. Incidentally, Yelich is 101
1:04
These feel a tad conservative to me. If you're going for him in a 12-teamer, I'd aim around pick 60 or a bit earlier. I think anything later risks missing on him. Anything before 40 (Story/Judge range) feels like a reach.
1:05
Which is not to say I advocate a bullish approach on Bellinger. I remain undecided.
1:06
I do think targeting him before his NFBC ADP is sensible. I'm just not sure how much earlier to go yet.
Josh Lowe
1:06
Do I start the year in Centerfield for Rays?  Does my friend Kevin get traded….opening the spot for me?
Brad Johnson
1:07
I do think Kiermaier gets traded - the Phillies are a ripe fit for KK.
1:08
I doubt Josh Lowe starts the year with the Rays though. I think, initially, the Margot/Phillips platoon moves to CF
1:09
The lets Meadows, Arozarena, Lowe, Brujan, and Walls share LF, RF, 2B, and DH
1:10
Lowe should enter the picture sooner or later though. I don't recall offhand how he is defensively as a CF.
Dodgers1
1:10
How do you rate/draft Trevor Bauer given his unknown status for 2022?
Brad Johnson
1:10
I would not draft him.
1:12
It would be... disappointing... if a MLB franchise employed him in the future. It would need to be a... let's say "distinctive" fanbase and a team that doesn't mind losing sponsorships. The details that have emerged are just too much to sweep under the rug.
1:15
Domestic violence cases are always difficult to approach from the perspective of fantasy analysis. I typically try to keep my eyes on the projected production i.e. with Ozuna earlier. I probably won't pick him, but there's still baseball analysis to be done. Someone will pick him.
1:16
In Bauer's case, I just don't think there's a path back onto the field. At least not without first spending some seasons abroad.
DW
1:16
If the new CBA removes the draft pick compensation attached to players who declined qualifying offers, will players like Coforto no longer have that penalty attached to them when signing to another team?
Brad Johnson
1:17
Actually, I probably shouldn't have picked this one. I'm supposed to stick to fantasy analysis!
Matt Chapman
1:18
Due for a bounceback with a full season removed from hip surgery?
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