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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
1:19
I think so. Probably not all the way to his 2018-19 peak, but I do think he should at least nudge his average EV and hard hit rates north
Question Asker
1:19
How much do you consider overall lineup strength when evaluating a hitter's fantasy potential -- mostly with respect to Runs and RBIs -- especially when a player changes teams or if their existing team's roster has significant improvements (or loses key players) in the offseason?
Brad Johnson
1:19
It's definitely a big factor and one I handle on a case-by-case basis.
1:20
Going to wrap up now so I'll be chewing through the remainders quickly.
MikeD
1:20
In a traditional Roto league, do you recommend going big on a guaranteed closer for guaranteed saves, or directing money elsewhere and then cobble together saves as the season progresses?
Brad Johnson
1:21
I think a mix and match approach is merited. Get one or two of the top guys then value hunt. You also have to know your personal strengths and weaknesses and play to them.
1:22
I'm good at value hunting relievers. I usually win the race to roster next big closer. If you don't regularly find those guys, prioritize the name brand closers in-draft.
Conversely, you can also let the draft decide for you if the big name guys happen to go much earlier or later than you're ready to take them
Casey
1:22
5 category (OBP not BA) keeper league. Which 6 would you keep (they would all only cost late picks): Kelenic/Votto/Ozuna/Bellinger/Bassitt/Pablo Lopez/Chapman/Canha/Chisholm
Brad Johnson
1:23
Bellinger, Votto, Bassitt, Lopez
Probably Ozuna and either Chapman
1:24
Cases to be made for Kelenic and Chisholm if you're looking beyond 2022.
Certainly huge upside. I tend to play these scenarios safe. There are always new Kelenics and Chisholms in 12-team mixed.
MikeD
1:24
One of my leagues is a traditional 4x4, AL-only, keeper league. Any advice on how to approach compiling pitcher wins as starters seem to be more marginalized, without damaging ERA and WHIP?
Brad Johnson
1:25
I will be writing on this topic sometime in February
not specifically for 4x4
Josh Lowe
1:25
AL only $26 for comebacking Gleber Torres?
Brad Johnson
1:25
Seems a little pricey. I do like him for a rebound of sorts. Neither his peak nor his valley.
Mitch M
1:25
Any former top prospects that have underperformed to date that you see taking a big step up in fantasy value? Robles? Senzel? Others?
Brad Johnson
1:26
This is also a good topic for a future article. This week's might touch on a few - it's going to be quick-hit sleepers by position.
GBS42
1:26
Brad, another 5x5 category question.  With times-through-the-order limitations reducing opportunities for SP pitchers to earn wins (let alone QS), do you have any suggestions for possible category changes?  Move from W to IP?  Something else?  SP are reaching the required 5 IP less and less often.  I wonder if MLB would consider dropping the requirement to 4 IP for a SP to qualify for a win.
Brad Johnson
1:28
IP is a workable alternative and leads to a very different roto experience. Really pumps up the value of bats (which are already higher than arms) since the pitching stats tend to get split between IP & K compilers and ERA & WHIP managers. The top tier SP also get a big value boost.
1:29
You can keep things a little more familiar by switching to K/9.
I prefer gritting teeth and sticking with Ws.
Dodgers1
1:29
Given you can get caught robbing a train (literally) and get charged with no more than trespassing by the LA District Attorney's Office, do you expect the Dodgers to eat his contract without releasing him.  MLB had enough evidence to suspend him, but chose to let it play out and leave the Dodgers stuck with the remaining half of his $40M 2021 contract.  If  MLB does not suspend him, the Dodgers cannot release him and risk a division rival (one of those "distinctive" fan bases) pick him up for league minimum.  If he should return to his 2020 level, a release would be a disaster.  They seem to be stuck with him.
Brad Johnson
1:31
No comment from me.
Black Sox
1:31
How would you rank the positions for a points league with daily line up moves allowed from your bench (20 players on roster allowed, can't pick up new players except once a week) in terms of which positions in general have the least amount of top tier talent available before a large drop off? (i.e., should catcher/SP's be addressed more early in the draft given there is less predictable solid producers in those categories versus categories like the OF)? Curious how you would rank the various positions in general.
Brad Johnson
1:32
I haven't dug in this deep just yet. In recent years, only catcher, SP, and RP really fall off fast. The other thing that can fall off is multi-category SBs.
soxfan
1:32
Whole league Head to Head points league.  Constitution allows DH to qualify at 1B or LF (depending on where last played field) to equalize flexibility for DH's in AL.  Does dropping that eligibility in a universal DH world make DH-only players less valuable?  Subtract a few bucks in the draft?
Brad Johnson
1:32
Last question!
MikeD
1:32
Without adding comment on Bauer, if MLB officially suspends Bauer, they will back date it. He will need to return the last half season pay.
Brad Johnson
1:33
Now back to soxfan's question...
If I understand, your rules basically mean Nelson Cruz and JD Martinez can be used as a 1B or LF, right?
1:35
I think that sounds right. The pool of players affected currently is pretty small so the change in value might be very small.
Thanks for playing everyone. See ya next week for a public chat!
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