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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
12:25
I actually picked Forrest Whitley and Puk fell to us in the 4th round (I also took Mitch White and Glenn Otto ahead of him)
All of which is to say, Eno's metrics like Puk. There's some post-hype flavor there. But I'm personally not very optimistic we'll see him in more than a middle relief role.
12:26
I think the A's aren't trying to contend too hard this year. So their goal with Puk will be for him to survive unscathed. Then he can try to build on that success in 2023
Speaking of Mullins
12:26
Who is this year's Mullins? And it's not Josh Rojas!
Brad Johnson
12:26
No, it's not Rojas.
12:27
I don't want to just say Oneil Cruz every time I'm asked one of these questions, but he's definitely on this list. I comped Trent Grisham earlier and I like him as a modest gamble.
12:28
I can't think of a surprise 30/30 threat off hand
12:29
I do have Vidal Brujan as a possible 15/40 threat
Preference 2nd
12:29
Doesn’t Roto seem like a dated form( or OG)
Brad Johnson
12:29
I've come back to it.
Roto has a certain beauty to it in the way you have to balance all these categories, many of which are contrary to the others.
12:30
By comparison, points leagues operate under a very simple optimization formula.
Rags2Riches
12:30
Can you give us a few hitters and pitchers that can be had in the final round that could return top 5 round value? 5x5 roto redraft
Brad Johnson
12:31
So my article I sent out last Thursday to Front Office subscribers went through position-by-position to highlight guys around pick 200 and 400 at each spot.
Brujan, who I mentioned, was one.
Jose Miranda and Nick Pratto were minor league player of the year candidates
12:32
Jose Barrero has some snazzy upside.
I don't want to spoil too many of my targets. I think those four are the likeliest to have big fantasy numbers rather than affordable core-performer type stats
The Final Boss
12:33
Buying a Pham bounceback, or did San Diego / getting stabbed ruin him?
Brad Johnson
12:33
I don't think he's ruined. The Statcast metrics remain glowing. I'm buying low early and often.
What's on Second?
12:34
Brad, do you think Jose Miranda will get an opportunity for playing time with the Twins this year?  If he can get 500 ABs, what kind of production would you expect?
Brad Johnson
12:34
I do, though 500 PA is probably a stretch.
That means they did the roster shuffling to get him starts early in the season AND he performed very well.
12:35
The path, prior to injuries, is through Trevor Larnach. Who honestly is a backup caliber player to date.
Interesting qualities to be sure, but he doesn't *need* to start on a would-be contender.
12:36
That means Donaldson to DH, Kepler/Buxton/Kirilloff across the OF
Rookie
12:36
First year doing fantasy baseball. What is your best advice for a beginner?
Brad Johnson
12:36
Effort. The easiest way to win a fantasy league is to throw effort at it.
12:37
Don't be afraid to make mistakes. You'll learn from them. And they can always be overcome.
Especially if you're starting with a normal format like 12-team mixed roto or H2H
If you're jumping in the deep end with a 20-team dynasty, then yes, you could make devastating mistakes.
Ryne W.
12:37
How likely is Robbie Ray’s chance of repeat production this year?
Brad Johnson
12:38
Pretty good in terms of retaining the skills that allowed his 2021 to happen
He owns those traits now
That said, when a veteran has one exceptional season, the norm is for some form of regression - whether skills, circumstance, health, etc.
Adam
12:39
What are some of your favorite weird, less heard of formats for leagues (scoring, teams, divisions, etc)
Brad Johnson
12:40
One of my last posts on FanGraphs was an omnibus of my custom-designed leagues: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/highly-custom-leagues-omnibus/
Just guessin'
12:40
I think Tyler O'Neil could be the next 30/30 dude, although he wouldn't be so much a surprise.
Brad Johnson
12:40
The 30 steals would floor me, personally
12:41
I know he has the huge sprint speed, but that would represent a large uptick in attempts
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