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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
1:10
Don't use L
1:11
It's so restrictive from a managerial perspective.
I'd avoid QS at all costs too
1:12
As for W or IP as the go to SP counting stat, they both have strengths and weakness. I prefer wins since you have to redesign the league a bit to incorporate IP.
Austin Riley
1:12
Austin Riley was a star last year. How high should I draft him?
Brad Johnson
1:12
I think his current 48 ADP is conservative.
1:13
He was a similar value player to Mullins (26 ADP). And I believe the skills growth just as much. He's in the Yordan-Teoscar-Semien range for me.
I'm going to wrap it up
Logan Gilbert
1:14
Does he have a good chance to be a later round breakout this year?
Brad Johnson
1:14
The percentage play is to always look a season down the road for a young breakout pitcher. He's probably passable this year with the breakout coming in 2023.
1:15
Not to say he can't pop in 2022. He flashed the ability in his debut.
Basically, I'm saying he'll pitch decent-to-well for 25 of 30 outings, skunk it for 4-5, and come in more consistent in 2023.
joe
1:16
who is this year's Robby Ray i.e. a pitcher that goes from middle to lower tier career wise to elite?
Brad Johnson
1:16
I'll drop some names, but I'd also like to point out that these are wild guesses. And anyone telling you otherwise is... let's say "overconfident."
1:17
I'll rule out young guys with upside like Carlos Hernandez and focus on veterans.
1:19
Jordan Montgomery, Patrick Sandoval, Steven Matz if he can get his velo up, Jameson Taillon
1:20
That's a list of guys who don't need to take enormous steps to find another gear. Modest improvement would do it.
Ray took an enormous, unpredictable step. So a true Ray analogy would be... unpredictable.
McDude
1:20
Re: Whitley, he had Tommy John last March. I dont think we see him before the all-star break, and that Astros rotation is deep!
Brad Johnson
1:21
Fair, I was going off the timeline the Astros posted, but it could be optimistic. I should be clear that I'm picking up shares with an eye towards arbitraging him in the 2023-24 offseason.
1:22
Not a guy I'm targeting in 12-team mixed redraft
Acuna
1:22
Would you rather have Trout or Acuna the next 4 years in fantasy?
Brad Johnson
1:22
Acuna. We're finally there. If you'd asked last season, I think my answer was still Trout.
Acuna
1:22
Acuna still a top 5 guy for you?
Brad Johnson
1:22
Maybe not in 2022 until we get more info on where exactly he is in the rehab process.
1:23
But next 4 years, absolutely.
Kelenic
1:23
Should I keep or try to trade kelenic in a dynasty league? We use contracts, he'll be $1 for the next 2 years then matching rights on a new 3 year contract after that. I had one of the better teams last year.
Nuke Laloosh
1:23
I'm in a H2H 14 team league and can protect either Jared Walsh, or Jarred Kelenic in the 12th round.  Would you play it safe, or take a big swing on Kelenic?
Brad Johnson
1:23
Got a ton of Kelenic questions today that I sorta skipped so this is a nice spot to finish.
You're asking about Kelenic because nobody knows just what to do with a top prospect who fizzles at first.
1:24
The good news is we saw some growth and adjustment as the season went on
I'm not downgrading him as a top prospect. (not technically a prospect now. Only spiritually)
1:25
To the first question, I'd aim to keep him unless handed a clear win for your roster.
As per Walsh or Kelenic, I think I go Walsh. I often err safe.
Gimme stats right now and a new dart throw.
1:26
In brief, I still think the future is very bright for Kelenic. We now have to contend with that small, nagging doubt.
Thanks for all the questions everyone! Sorry if I didn't get to yours. See you in a couple weeks.
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