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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
12:26
No, not crazy. He's only the 59th pitcher off the board in NFBC which implies Top-30 potential.
12:28
I'm personally not very interested in him because of certain health risks. I'd rathe take a shot at Ian Anderson, Lance McCullers, or Severino. Maybe Clevinger, Kershaw (also a potential health bomb), or Logan Gilbert.
They're all going in the same range. I think ERod is someone I take if he's getting left out there.
Abe Froman
12:29
In a SV/H league, any set up men you think could be primed for a breakout or have a new role that might lead to more holds?
Brad Johnson
12:31
I'll draft up a few names in a moment here, but I'd warn against going too deep on relievers until baseballs are being thrown. With pitch labs transforming so many pitchers each winter, you never know who's going to come back with extra zip, nastier stuff, or new tricks.
12:33
Based on what we saw last season, I'd keep an eye on Camilio Doval, David Bednar, Andrew Kittredge, Dylan Floro, Hector Neris, Pierce Johnson, Tyler Duffey, and Alex Vesia.
12:34
And I think Dinelson Lamet is one to watch too. 141st pitcher in NFBC and clearly the Padres most interesting reliever.
Seems like they want him for a multi-inning role so maybe not a big SV/H compilier.
12:35
Somebody cool is going to emerge in Miami. If not Floro or Bender, they still have half a dozen others who could pop in relief.
Will in Westport
12:35
In a AL-only, 5x5 rotisserie league (we've been at this for 38 years), if the rumors about a trade of Jose Ramirez from Cleveland to Toronto were to occur in 2022, what do you think would be the change (if any) in his Roto value?  And, if you think that it is possible, how would you see him being packaged?
Brad Johnson
12:36
Well... I've been asked not supposed to speculate on irl stuff, but I'll do it anyway for fun.
12:39
Ramirez is a notable asset so a deal probably starts with something like Pearson and either Moreno/Kirk then continues with one of Orelvis Martinez, Jordan Groshans, or Gunnar Hoglund and a couple down-list prospects. Maybe the Jays also get Amed Rosario or Andres Gimenez? fwiw, I think this is unlikely.
12:40
Joining Toronto is seemingly good for Ramirez in most regards. He'd probably run less on account of the potent hitters around him. Might draw more walks for the same reason. Huge network effects in that lineup too (i.e. they'll face fatigued/bad pitchers more often).
12:41
That said, the stat changes for fantasy purposes are almost always small when a player switches teams.
I wouldn't worry too much about it right now.
Abe Froman
12:41
Thoughts on Cody Bellinger going into this season? Was 2021 a complete albatross?
Brad Johnson
12:43
It was certainly a flummoxing season. I would bet on a batting line around 20% better than league average - good but also not his 2019 peak. His other seasons have clustered in the ~120 wRC+ region.
He's shown us some wild streaks in both directions over his five seasons. That just might be who he is. Playing through injuries surely didn't help.
12:44
While his irl stats will probably be something around 20% above average, his fantasy stats should be a little better than that. He scratches all five categories when he's going.
12:45
The queue of questions is starting to empty if anybody has a follow up or new thought.
Clete Boyer
12:45
Our 10-category rotisserie league is changing the saves category to saves + hold/2. Any suggestions on how to maximize this category? On the surface, it seems that I should still focus on drafting true cosers—if there are any. Thanks
Brad Johnson
12:46
Yes, this setting just gives you a little more reward for selecting and holding closers in waiting.
12:47
You should approach it almost identically to saves. You need closers. The holds guys should be rostered first and foremost to aid your ratios while hoping they matriculate to saves.
12:49
It also means good relievers blocked by elite closers are a little more useful. The Josh Haders and Liam Hendriks can always get hurt, but it can still be a challenge to find room for Devin Williams or Kendall Graveman if the league is using only saves.
RAGBRAI
12:49
NL Only 11 team league, as possible keepers who has a better shot at out perfroming their price, Estevez at $2 or Carrasco at $12?
Brad Johnson
12:50
I'd rather take a shot at Carrasco as this is proposed. However, the pitcher pool is such that I suspect the correct answer is "neither." Do you have a third choice you'd consider?
Abe Froman
12:50
Thoughts on Jarren Duran's profile and what to expect going into the 2022 season?
Brad Johnson
12:52
I like the post-hype opportunity here. At the moment, he has a clear path to playing time. I expect the Red Sox to add outfield depth to change that.
12:53
He's somebody who, were I managing him, I'd like to identify the situations where he can be most confident and use him in a platoon.
He was overwhelmed last season and has enough holes in his swing that he could remain overwhelmed indefinitely.
All in all, a good late-round flier for 5-category upside.
12:55
I'd probably prefer quite a few players in the same ADP range as him (378). Nick Solak, Evan Longoria, MJ Melendez, Victor Robles, Jose Miranda, and a bunch of solid pitchers going in the same range.
Lot of playing time concern in that bunch...
RAGBRAI
12:56
I have a lot of $1 NL only 5x5 players that I could retain to fill out my 12 keepers, if you had pick two or three, whom do you see having the most productivity in 2022 (assuming there is a season)...Barrero, Kieboom, Hilliard, De La Cruz, Tellez, Beer or Lauer?  Thanks for the chats!
Brad Johnson
12:56
For sure keep Barrero. He's the "one of these is not like the others" of this list.
12:58
I'd move on from Hilliard. He couldn't crack a regular role in his peak. Now he's sliding into his late-20s.
12:59
Beer... I get such negative scouting reports on him then I look at the stats and find them at least loosely intriguing.
Now with the DH likely coming, at least he has a path to play.
Might have been the worst 1b I ever saw in minors action fwiw.
1:01
It's saying something when you see a 1B who just looks terrible out there. Even some of the worst in the majors aren't noticeably bad - you have to watch 10 plays in a row to see it.
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