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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
12:00
Hello everyone, we'll get started in a few moments.
jay
12:03
Lane Thomas or take a chance on Demeritte?
Brad Johnson
12:04
Thomas is probably the long-term play, but I'd go with Demeritte for now. Thomas looks broken at the moment.
12:05
I don't know how much runway Demeritte actually has, but he's performing well and doesn't have much internal competition at the moment. Drew Waters doesn't look like an MLBer anytime soon, Michael Harris is a ways away, and they just passed Alex Dickerson through waivers so *nobody* wants him right now.
12:06
I actually reference Demeritte in today's fantasy article (not quite done yet, but you should get it later today).
Bones
12:06
Is Ha-Seong Kim usable in fantasy?
Matt
12:06
Is Luis Arraez worth the pickup?
Should I drop Jon Gray or keep him?
Brad Johnson
12:07
I'm posting these three together as they also relate to today's forthcoming article. Getting good advice requires the right amount of detail.
I have leagues where Kim is playable, but I play in very deep formats. And still would avoid using him when possible.
Chances are, you're in a 12-teamer and should not consider him unless he's already hot.
12:08
But if it's 16-teams or deeper, sure, pick him up just to see. He's flashed interesting traits while failing.
12:09
I think Arraez has a spot on a roster in any 12-team format. Not necessarily your roster though!
That's a key piece of advice that can be missed. Just because somebody is "must roster" in 12-team doesn't mean your team benefits.
12:10
In Arraez's case, he's looking increasingly interesting now that we're seeing some form of dead-ball happening. All these sluggers aren't hitting for power OR AVG. Arraez is a daily threat for multiple hits and usually has a good lineup role for both types of run production.
12:12
Where he's available, it's because he lacks HR and SB which are two categories we laser focus as an industry. But right now, that's OK.
As for Gray, I think you can cycle other options in all but the deepest formats.
Bluejays4life
12:12
Ty France - how sustainable is his production? Obviously there will be some regression, should I be selling high while I can or hang on?
Brad Johnson
12:14
This is a great question that we're all wondering. Through his entire dev process, France has exceeded the sum of his parts. That he's continuing to do so now shouldn't be surprising. That said, the power does look quite fluky. The contact... might be completely real.
12:15
I think he's like an .810 OPS hitter. He's the right type of reliable to hold a key lineup role even when he isn't going nuts. They're not actual comps, but the profile ends up feeling a little like DJ LeMahieu. Someone who can absorb a lot of high quality PA.
12:16
Whether you want to sell or not depends on your league and roster needs. I'd be inclined to keep him for the position flex.
But, it's worth hearing what's on offer.
12:17
Something I tell my friends when I'm GMing a role playing game: always hear the Devil's Bargain. If you don't like it, you can always say no.
Michael
12:17
Brad, Do I keep Charlie Morton??  Getting scared!
Brad Johnson
12:18
I'd hold longer, but you might want to shift him to your bench. He's had a couple blips like this in recent years before recovering completely.
I'm not seeing any specific metric screaming "I'm broken"
Dominquez
12:20
In a 14 team roto keeper league, I’m still in rebuild mode. Would you hold Jasson or look to drop him for Mayo, Pasquantino or Soderstrom?
Brad Johnson
12:20
I heard a fresh batch of hype this spring, but the early results aren't there. I'd go for a nearer prospect like those listed.
12:21
I'd probably go for Pasquantino myself. I'm such a sucker for high OBP, low-K, any power profiles.
Michael
12:21
Now that we are into May, what is the biggest surprise for you at this point in the season?
Brad Johnson
12:23
Oh,  so many things. The lack of home runs. The success of so many formerly middling SP. Specific guys like Eric Lauer, Taylor Ward, many others.
It's been the most unusual April I remember, excluding 2020.
Windy Twinner
12:23
Good afternoon.   Could I have your thoughts on Trevor Larnach?  Do the twins give him a chance to strut his stuff?
Brad Johnson
12:24
He's getting some room to operate with Kirilloff both out and struggling. But the correct role for him is as a second division starter or a fourth outfielder on a competitor. The Twins are competitive, and they plan for him to be a fourth outfielder.
12:26
His traits don't quite come together in the right way. His above average exit velocities are mostly into the ground. He has too many strikeouts too. It would work with Adam Duvall's fly ball profile, but he just doesn't offer enough extra base hits as presently constructed to support 30% K%
Zack
12:26
Minnesota is supposedly calling up Miranda today.  He was initially off to a slow start in AAA but had heated up recently.  If he produces do you think he has much chance of staying up after the others recover from injuries?
Brad Johnson
12:27
Yea, it's all down to production. He's an aggressive hitter and they're famously prone to volatile results. Depending on the quality of the scouting report and any exploitable weaknesses, we could see a very wide range of outcomes for Miranda.
12:28
It's not like Urshela is off to a roaring start. Nor is Nick Gordon. He could waltz right past them and Larnach/Garlick or get trapped behind them.
12:29
Oh wait, Garlick's down too - that's why they're calling him up!
Will
12:29
Hey Brad, thanks for doing this.  In a 35-year-old, 10-team, AL-only, 5x5 keeper league, how should I evaluate AJ Pollack's activity so far this year?  Small sample size effect, or something more substantial?
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