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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
11:58
Looks like we have a healthy chat geared up for this Memorial Day. We'll get started in a couple minutes.
Mike
12:01
Rank Grandal, d'Arnaud & Rutchman in one catcher 12-team 5x5 redraft league? Also between d-Arnaud & Rutschman, who would you use?
Brad Johnson
12:02
I'd definitely prioritize Grandal. I think Rutschman is next-best, both in production per PA and opportunity this season. William Contreras has hit his way into a job share with d'Arnaud
12:03
Besides 2020 and 2015, d'Arnaud's never really been a particularly good hitter anyway. His value's based as much on the Braves misusing him in the middle of the lineup as any actual traits.
12:04
He's still batting 4-6 way too often.
I dunno what they're doing...
Mike
12:04
When in time do the ROS projections on players become secondary to actual current season production. For example, last season, Cavan Biggio was never remotely valuable but projection sites never really downgraded him anywhere near enough until the very end. I think of Chad & Jeremy singing "that was yesterday and yesterday's gone"
Brad Johnson
12:05
I dunno about Chad & Jeremy, but you definitely need to apply a layer of analysis when using projection systems
12:06
Basically, your job is to figure out "is something different?" and "is it so different that he won't just revert to what he was?"
With Biggio, there was enough evidence to suggest, yes, this player is broken.
12:07
Trevor Rogers is a guy who seems to be broken right now. His release points aren't right.
Something's up with Marcus Semien's contact quality.
12:08
Whit Merrifield was absolutely 100% normal during his initial slump. So that was a case where you'd just use the projections without any adjustment.
GBS42
12:08
Thoughts on Michael Harris? Contributor in more than SB? BA? Other 5x5 counting categories? 8-tean NL-only.
Brad Johnson
12:09
I think even in NL-Only, Harris probably isn't worth chasing in an 8-teamer. That said, he was on the way to becoming the top prospect sometime in the near future. The Braves learned the value of continued effort last season, and they're doing it again.
12:10
Harris has upside to do everything. And probably will in time. They're trying to catch a Juan Soto debut, but they're obviously much likelier to get an Abrams.
Mike
12:10
Andres Munoz (KC-RP) - bust and slow start? My AL-only league requires 200+ IP from non-closing RPs. ERA becomes a key factor in these players and his is hurtful right now.
Brad Johnson
12:11
I did another deep dive on him a couple days back. Here's the narrative I'm leaning towards right now...
By pure stuff, Munoz remains in the conversation for Top 1 reliever with Josh Hader and some others.
12:12
Command has always been his weakness in the same way it can be a problem for Kimbrel.
We have to remember he's missed a lot of development time. This is a raw product who's so talented that he can do his developing while in the Majors.
12:14
When it comes down to it, the command isn't great, the 21.7% SwStr% is godly, and a 12.91 K/9 doesn't match. Regarding the command, more than 2/3rds of his pitches are in the zone so that's telling me he could actually benefit from throwing more balls.
It also makes his SwStr% even more impressive.
12:15
Add everything together, and we're still talking about a top 10 reliever even with flaws and expectations for volatility.
Gabriel Moreno
12:15
when does Gabriel Moreno get the call?
Brad Johnson
12:16
Perhaps after the next catcher injury. Moreno's hitting for empty batting average in the minors. The power he was flashing last season isn't showing up in game
12:17
Jansen's absolutely on fire right now so they aren't even thinking about needing Moreno in the short term.
12:18
Kirk's a super-talented pure hitter too. Since his slump ended in late-April, he's batting .325/.398/.455.
His glove leaves something to be desired, but you don't see teams set aside catchers hitting that well.
In short, Moreno is stuck.
Snoozy
12:19
I need SB, standard 15 team 5x5 mixed. White, McCarthy, Morel please rank ROS.
Brad Johnson
12:20
So... if you're thinking about steals to the exclusion of all else, White is faster than Morel and McCarthy. Morel seems like the play to me. Ride the wave.
12:21
I like McCarthy quite a bit, but his window to carve out a role is so small. Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho, David Peralta, Pavin Smith sharing the same outfield not to mention Cooper Hummel and Jordan Luplow
12:22
Then there's Corbin Carroll riding hard to join the fray. If they're still contending in a couple months, they'll be tempted to call him.
btw, hot tip, David Peralta is on the cusp of a power binge.
Don
12:23
Do you think Brandon Marsh will ever hit 25-30 homers in the big leagues?
Brad Johnson
12:23
You know what, I do think he'll get there one day. But it'll be a career year.
12:24
I think the career-shape could start off a little like Trent Grisham. To be clear, they aren't very similar, I just think we'll see the same sort of good and bad periods.
Reds for life
12:24
Any chance Reds lefty Andrew Abbott gets a big league call-up this season?
Brad Johnson
12:26
I didn't have anything internalized about Abbott so I had to look up some reports.
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