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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
12:27
For those who aren't Reds fans, he's dominating High- and Double-A across 8 appearances. Southpaw with a three-pitch repertoire. The main criticism I read was command.
The good news is he has a low walk rate. When you see scouts pointing out bad command coupled with a good walk rate, it means the stuff stands on it's own even when it's not thrown to a spot.
12:28
Triple-A and the Majors tend to be less forgiving.
One of the reports predates the season, and it's not uncommon for fresh reports to be colored by earlier looks. All of which is to say, I think we only see him this year if the command has truly improved considerably.
12:29
Otherwise, he should spend most of the season in Double-A and finish out in Triple-A.
GBS42
12:29
Would you start Wood at MIA or Snell at STL? Weekly NL-only, 5x5 league. I'm thinking Wood.
Brad Johnson
12:30
I'm hemming and hawing here. I think you could go either way. Wood's maybe a tad safer. Snell could spike a monster outing. Probably due for about 23 batters faced.
Wood's steadily 20-24 batters every time
12:31
Another little hint, I kinda stumbled onto this... teams are managing most of their pitchers on a batters faced basis. Especially for DFS, you can find guys with long tail upside by looking for pitchers allowed to throw beyond 21-23 batters.
Bogi Yerra
12:32
Will Berrios turn things around?
Brad Johnson
12:33
Probably. I was super out on Berrios just because I don't use Toronto pitchers when they aren't deeply discounted.
12:34
So I don't have a lot of prep floating in my mind for him. I don't know why the K% and SwStr% are down.
From what I could gather in a minute, I suspect something has happened to the shape of his breaking ball.
12:35
I'm looking a little more...
12:38
ok, I didn't get anywhere.
12:39
The curve might be a little different (some systems are calling it a slider now even though the movement profile is almost identical to last season).
The pitch isn't performing as well, but it's a subtle difference. i.e. the kind of difference that looks like random variance.
No GOAT
12:39
Thanks for hosting today. Need 2 SP’s for the rest of the season in a 12 team 5X5: A. Cobb, R. Contreras, Y Kikuchi, B. Ober, G. Rodriguez, H. Ryu. Appreciate your help in ranking them.
Brad Johnson
12:40
Cobb for sure.
I'd lean Roansy for the moment. Try to catch some ceiling before settling for floor.
Really, I'd treat Cobb as a rest-of-season play and keep looking with that other slot. Stream good matchups.
James
12:41
what are your thoughts on Liberatore and Ethan Small for the rest of the season?
Brad Johnson
12:41
Caveat on Small, I haven't seen him pitch yet.
12:42
I like the high-K%, high GB% thing he's doing this year. Not sure I trust those grounders.
12:43
It seems like the story on him is he's a high fastball, changeup guy. Does well in the zone but doesn't have anything that works outside it.
12:44
The best version of this profile is someone like Cole Hamels.
Fantasy application might be limited.
I'm not enthusiastic about Liberatore.
12:45
Someone connected the dots for me a couple weeks ago. The stuff all looks good individually, but it doesn't work as a repertoire.
Doesn't seem fixable either unless there's a way to condense it to two offerings and post him in the bullpen.
12:46
He'll be fine from an irl perspective, but I think we can ignore him for fantasy. Stream against weak lineups.
JJ Bleday
12:46
He's collecting walks and hitting some home runs.  What does he need to do to elevate his game?
Brad Johnson
12:47
My first impression when I see such huge BB% and K% is the batter might be  verging passive
12:49
This also might be a case where the batter isn't swinging at pitches he can't murder. Bleday has the fly ball rates of an Adam Duvall. That might just be the outcome he's developing towards.
I had multiple scouts telling me he was completely busted just last AFL. So even accepting a role like Duvall's is a nice recovery.
Tom Tresh
12:51
Luis Barrera or Michael Taylor (when he returns)?
Brad Johnson
12:51
I really like Barrera has a fringy sort with fun traits. He's playing roughly every other day lately.
I really don't think much of Taylor, though the Royals find ways to play him way too often for my tastes.
12:52
I'd probably gamble on Barrera and keep looking.
Hogjaz
12:52
Your opinion of Ethan Small?
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