Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
12:02
Hey folks, we'll get started in a moment.
Michael Harris II
12:03
Why wasn't I a top 10 prospect going into this season? The current top 10 wishes they had the skill set I have.
Brad Johnson
12:05
It's worth noting that scouts are not infallible to falling for patterns. The Braves recently had Cristian Pache and Drew Waters basically bust with a similar toolset. I recall a narrative building that the Braves didn't work with this sort of player. Maybe they had some lessons learned. More likely, Harris happened to develop in ways the others did not.
12:06
Even so, if you recall the top 10 prospects heading into the season, they all had proximity that wasn't apparent with Harris.
12:07
Preseason, a bullish timeline would have been a September cup of coffee. He barely touched Double-A and skipped Triple-A. And there really wasn't any indication he could do so successfully - at least not to anyone outside the Braves org.
Ditto Vaughn Grissom btw.
Dalton Rushing
12:07
Future dodgers catcher or DH?
Brad Johnson
12:08
I haven't heard anything to suggest he can't catch. Though I mostly only have notes on his hitting. I feel like a trade is likelier than either.
Tim
12:08
Corbin, Henderson, and McCarthy…   Are you starting any of them on your fantasy team down the stretch?
Brad Johnson
12:09
Yes! All of them, where I have them.
Granted, these are deep leagues.
But I think they should be started by somebody in a 12-team mixed format - not necessarily you if your club is loaded.
Guest
12:09
In fantasy, who are your top 5 prospects to target for next season?
Brad Johnson
12:10
If you were a Front Office member, you would have gotten almost this exact article last week.
I'll dig it up this time since you asked nicely.
12:11
There's a valid argument to include pitchers, but I usually try to focus on hitters. And I would take Volpe, Elly De La Cruz, Jordan Walker, Jordan Lawlar, and Jackson Chourio (if you don't need instant gratification).
Drew
12:11
Do we ride Elvis andrus while he’s super hot?
Brad Johnson
12:12
I suppose so, I really don't have a read on what's happening. I think it's just a fluky power outburst.
He's at .293/.337/.511 since joining the Sox.
12:13
Besides the spike of ISO and a little more BABIP than normal, everything else seems ordinary for him.
12:14
And we're talking a .306 BABIP instead of around .280 soooo, no big deal there.
Tim
12:14
Do I drop Clevinger for Flaherty?
Brad Johnson
12:14
I don't think that's a move I'd make, though I would look to drop Clev for someone else.
12:15
I don't see any reason to think Flaherty is fantasy relevant at the moment.
Tim
12:15
I finally dropped Merrifield…. I traded away Arenado for him because I needed an outfielder and steals.    What a poor decision.
Brad Johnson
12:15
that... is a bummer. The thought process seems sound, depending on when the trade occurred.
12:16
Sometimes you get good process, bad result.
Triston Casas
12:16
What do you think of Casas's future? Is he a future star?
Brad Johnson
12:16
Star seems like a stretch.
That's a high bar at 1B
I think the hope is for something Anthony Rizzo-ish - which is a low-end star.
12:18
I think that's actually the tightest comp I can find among current regulars. Rowdy Tellez also came to mind, skewed towards higher floor outcomes
somebody
12:19
Carroll just getting a read on MLB pitchers in terms of running? What would be a 90th percentile 2023 SB total for him, esp given the rule changes?
Brad Johnson
12:19
40 to 50? Expect more in the 20-30 range. I don't think any of us really know what to make of the new rules in terms of how individual players will react.
12:20
I think, at the team level, some will go out of the gate VERY aggressive and others will keep playing station to station.
Braves fan
12:20
Does the fact the Braves took on the entirety of Raisel Iglesias's contract indicate they may let Jansen leave as a free agent and turn the closer role over to Iglesias next year?  Or is it possible they would pay that much for a 7th/8th inning guy?
Brad Johnson
12:21
I think it's very likely they let Jansen walk.
Neil
12:22
Are there any stats you like to use in an attempt to determine if a down year is simply a one-off or the beginning of a declining career (taking injuries out of the equation)? I’m thinking along the lines of veterans with several years of good production.
Brad Johnson
12:23
You know, I used to have some traits I'd look to, but with all the advances in player development, there just isn't a good way to predict these things anymore. When a Matt Carpenter or David Peralta declines enough, they often change their swing and have new life.
12:24
In general, you can see the decline as hitters become more disciplined but not more productive. Swinging strike rate tends to climb a bit before a collapse.
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