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Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
1:01
Hey folks, we'll get rolling in a moment.
1:02
We're thinking this will be the last fantasy chat until early 2023. If you feel strongly about that, let me know (via Twitter @BaseballATeam is easiest) and I'll relay your thoughts to Tim.
Eddie
1:05
Hi, Brad. I need to protect a minor leaguer in my keeper league. How would you rank Mervis, Manzardo, Royce Lewis and Emmanuel Rodriguez? Thanks so much.
Brad Johnson
1:06
Time horizons and league depth are relevant here.
Rodriguez, for instance, is a good prospect, but he's also ages away from the Majors.
1:07
And I don't believe I prefer him to Lewis or Manzardo at this stage of his development.
1:08
Mervis is interesting in a late-breaking kind of way. Some vague similarities to the ascension of guys like Rhys Hoskins. He's a pull-happy, fly ball hitting power bat who has somehow hit for average at his last four stops (one of which was 15 PA).
1:10
He also improved consistently throughout the year. That said, I like Manzardo a little bit more in the sense that I think he'll offer instant gratification. He doesn't really have the roto-ceiling of Mervis, but he also isn't as at risk of having big exploitable shortcomings.
1:11
All that said, the answer for me is still Lewis. He's been really good when healthy and has that coveted power/speed combo. Could be a bumpy road, and the injury history is a concern. But I also think he's the best bet for future superstardom of the group.
Brad
1:11
24 team Dynasty. What prospects or picks do you like for the FYPD
Brad Johnson
1:13
Honestly, it's kind of a shrug for me after Holliday and Jones. I suppose Johnson and Green are in that same mix.
1:14
After those four, I'm not sure there's anybody worth reaching for. So it you can move up from like pick 6 to a top 4 pick fairly cheaply, it's probably worth it.
Not saying the others aren't good prospects, we're just getting into that "can miss" territory where spending assets for a pick upgrade probably isn't worth it.
1:16
Flip side, if you have pick 5, you might consider trading back to pick 10 or so. Can probably still get a guy like Justin Crawford there.
I'm still hoping we get an interesting player or two posted
Hector
1:16
Hi Brad, thanks for the chat. Early keeper question. 10 team NL only 5x5 (OBP), $260 budget to acquire 9 active hitters, 9 active pitchers, 7 reserve players, all at auction. Can freeze 5 players and keep forever at salary shown. 2022 rebuilding year so lots of options. What would be your ranking: O Cruz $7, CJ Adam’s $1, C. Yellich $12, M. Gore $2, F. Alvarez $3, A. Diaz $3, C. Carroll $2, J. Walker $3, B. Baty $5, A. Ashby $2
Brad Johnson
1:17
Cruz, Carroll, and Walker are easy locks for me. I assume that's Alexis and not Aledmys Diaz?
1:18
I'm not a big believer in Gore, I think Ashby's as good (technically as "mediocre") and has actual big ceiling.
Those last 2 spots are really tough.
1:19
Abrams is a great athlete, I think it's worth trying him. Just be mindful that 2023 might be a poor season for him.
1:21
Since it's OBP, I think that decides me on Alvarez as the final keep. Sad to lose Yelich and Ashby, but you're rebuilding and these young guys on tiny contracts are how you later add 3 impact vets in one deal.
Don
1:21
What Rookies in 2022 will be future AllStars 5-10 years from now. Thanks much!
Brad Johnson
1:22
Lot of rookies this season!
1:23
On the hitting side, Adley, JRod, Harris, Witt, Suzuki, Vinnie P, Oneil Cruz looked fantastic.
1:25
But let's not rule out Vaughn Grissom, Torkelson, Riley Greene, Vidal Brujan, Nick Pratto, Abrams, Josh Smith, Shea Langeliers, MJ Melendez, Josh Lowe, Alek Thomas, Rodolfo Castro, Jose Miranda, Bryson Stott, Steven Kwan, Jeremy Pena, or several others.
The view I used leaves out players under 130 PA like Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll.
1:27
Pitchers are notoriously more fickle, but I think we can count on seeing Spencer Strider, George Kirby, Joe Ryan, Andres Munoz, Nick Lodolo, Camilo Doval, and Roansy Contreras make an All-Star bid or three.
1:28
I also like Ashby and, well, so many others. The volume of guys who just need to figure out a thing or two is incredible.
Dano
1:28
Tough keeper decision for next year.  12 team points league.  Can keep 4, no cost.  Choices are Will Smith (C), Devers, Wander, Michael Harris II, Soto, Tatis, Woodruff, L Castillo, McClanahan.  I feel like I have to keep one pitcher, leaning towards Woodruff.  Soto is a lock.  Tatis is a total wild card and am unsure if I should bother.  If I don't keep him, I guess Devers and Wander are my other two?
Brad Johnson
1:29
I should have mentioned with the past keeper question. Consider this to be very preliminary. It often pays to put these things completely out of your mind for a month or more and then reengage with fresh eyes with plenty of time ahead of the keeper deadline.
What you/I think today has a way of changing in the cold light of the offseason.
1:31
I think you have to keep Tatis. The production when on the field is too ludicrous. It does hurt you a tad in 2023, mostly only if you have to carry him in a bench slot early on. That depends on platform and league settings.
1:32
Honestly, I hope you have offseason trading. Should be able to package Wander+Devers for any player you want. Then you'd have Soto, Tatis, that player, and Woodruff/McClanahan.
1:34
On the pitching side, I perceive it as McClanahan having a little more variability (i.e. higher ceiling, lower floor). Woodruff is quite consistent. Their average output is probably about the same. Ditto injury risk. So, basically a coin flip. You ought to dive really deep on both (if you feel like it) to see if either has traits you prefer or believe make a difference.
1:35
Personally, if you just have to choose from this list, my instinct is Soto, Tatis, Devers, and McClanahan. Really sucks to just cut Wander, Woodruff/McClan, Castillo, and Harris.
I don't feel too bad about dropping Smith in this scenario.
1:36
Last question in the queue. Anyone else have a query?
DrDave
1:36
With a league Quirk, we can pick up 1 player for the final day.  Where can I find pitching match-ups for Wednesday's games by Tuesday at 6PM?  Need a free agent to get me a few K's
Brad Johnson
1:37
Ah, well, unfortunately, last day matchup data is notoriously inaccurate. Teams often don't decide or change their mind after the results of Tuesday night's games. And they don't bother to tell the media.
1:38
I suggest crossreferencing a few lists starting with the Roster Resource Probables Grid: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/probables-grid
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