You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson
powered byJotCast
Brad Johnson
12:53
We'll get started a few minutes early.
Oscar Gamble
12:55
Where’s a good place for a beginner to get in a draft and hold best ball league?
Brad Johnson
12:57
Your best option for entry level is FanTrax. Even that probably isn't true "beginner," but you should be able to hold your own.
They aren't free, but there are options for as low as $10.\
12:58
You could probably also make a public free league. I've never actually tried that with FanTrax.
12:59
I'm sure other sites offer it too. My exposure is through Tout Wars and NFBC.
Neither of which is remotely beginner
Dave
1:00
How serious is Tyler Glasnow's injury and what is his most likely outcome for his return/season's upside? Tyler Glasnow's injury seem to be, and how what do you project Brady Singer's upside to be?
How serious is Tyler Glasnow's injury and what is his most likely return date/season's performance?
Glasnow Half Full
1:00
Hey Brad. Curious whether you still want Glasnow. I can rationalize that missed time was already in the projections, but it's hard to have it up front, no end in sight. (FWIW, I'd been considering a 10 tm, AL Only, deal of $1 Glasnow for $6 McKenzie and $1 Munoz.)
Brad Johnson
1:00
A lot of Glasnow questions. The queue is pretty empty so I'm going to take a couple minutes to see if I can learn more.
1:01
Actually, it's pretty straightforward analytically.
1:02
A grade 2 left oblique strain is tough on a pitcher like Glasnow. There's real risk of reinjury if he rushes his rehab. And we have to imagine he's even more impatient to get back on the mound than we are to see him.
The typical recovery time is 6-8 weeks.
1:04
So we're looking at a possible return to the bullpen in early May if the Rays opt for that route. Likelier, roughly some point in June for him to be starting. Unfortunately, this sort of injury basically sets him back to scratch in terms of prep/build up.
1:05
I would take that deal of Glasnow for McKenzie and Munoz.
1:06
I'm sure there's some sort of keeper calculus being weighed. There's a 50/50 chance he'll sign a free agent contract with an NL club. He's a free agent after 2024. The Rays are also very likely to trade him once he proves his health. That's just how they operate.
1:07
All of which is to say there's about a 51% chance Glasnow is a NL player by 2025.
Dave
1:07
What kind of upside do you see for Brady Singer this season as well as in the future?
Brad Johnson
1:09
As for Singer, he's honestly tough to read. Without skills growth, I think he'll be inconsistent. He outperformed his peripherals last season just as he (massively) underperformed them in 2021. Since his repertoire is so limited, he's going to have a hard time extending the length of his outings.
1:10
This isn't a perfect comp, but I think Kyle Gibson serves as a rough yard stick against which to measure Singer.
Gibson has like 7 distinct pitches (usually only uses ~4 at a time)
1:11
Singer is very much a fastball-slider guy with a show-me changeup.
Otherwise, they're similar in their ground ball tendencies, ability to hunt down a strikeout now and then, and moderate issues with HR despite all the GBs.
1:13
That probably sounds negative, but I actually really like pitchers like Singer. I'm a big fan of anybody with around 9.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, and a 50% GB rate. For fantasy purposes, he costs a little too much this year in redrafts. I want to see him slip from his ADP a couple rounds before I pounce. Too much upside in that same cohort.
1:15
Per NFBC ADP, he's the 72nd pitcher (including RP) off the board. 71 is Drew Rasmussen (I greatly prefer him). 73 is Kodai Senga (better gamble), 74 is Grayson Rodriguez (better gamble).
Merrill Kelly, who projects the same and is coming off a better 2022 season, is going 60 picks after Singer.
1:16
Jameson Taillon, another production clone, is nearly 100 picks later.
Astros
1:16
Keeper question. 11 team, NL only,+Astros player pool, keeper league, 25-30% inflation. Roansy ($1), Stott ($12), A Wood ($6) - any of the three worth it?
Brad Johnson
1:16
I know who this is :)
1:17
Can't imagine there are a lot of NL Only + Astros leagues in the wild still!
Roansy without question
He's not can't miss, but he should at least be passable when he's active
1:19
I like Stott as a growth asset, but I feel like the stretch price is in the $6-8 range. I'd cut and rebuy cheaper
1:20
I'd also throw the dice on keeping Wood, but I'll leave that up to you.
1:21
I think the decision to make is: are you willing to ride or die with a guy who's maybe $6 underpriced but has also completely wilted 3 of the last 4 seasons.
Wilted despite good peripherals.
1:22
In any case, a model will tell you to keep him. But, I'm inclined to make decisions based on how I want to manage too. And I've crossed him off because I don't want to be in a situation where I'm comparing his peripherals to his current performance to his past performance.
I do most of my number crunching in my head and that just sounds like a mind f*#k.
Load More Messages
Connecting…