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Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
1:45
From earlier, Ranger Suarez is of interest. Personally, I'm not out on Lance Lynn. I think he'll rebound soon.
The wire is pretty gnarly right now. Adrian Houser?
Followers
1:45
Looking for wins in AL only league, modest start cap, so I like followers. Are any of Voth, Flemming, or Mayers in KC (if they keep following) of interest in that situation? Lorenzen would be the "regular" starter replaced
Brad Johnson
1:46
I like the idea, but I'm not keen about any of those individuals at this time. I'll double check though
1:47
Mayers spikes a whiff of interest, but I prefer Lorenzen.
We're down to a last couple questions if anyone has buzzer beaters
Guest
1:47
Fantasy value ROS -- that is likelihood of rotation-spot retention and/or degree to which workload will be managed.  T. Bibee,  T. Bradley, B. MIller.
Brad Johnson
1:47
I think Taj is the best 2023 asset of those followed by Bibee
1:48
As a young fly ball pitcher, there's real risk of Bibee imploding badly if a scouting report discovers something
Dr Dave
1:48
In need of pitching.  My offer is Ohtani for B.Miller and Bibee.  Am I nuts?
Brad Johnson
1:49
Oh yea, that's nutty
Pending which platform and if you're daily/weekly.
Still too many dumb platforms out there splitting Ohtani into 2 or making you choose between pitching or hitting.
Last Q
Wallflower
1:49
Based on your article yesterday. Why is future performance valued so much more by everyone than current performance?
Brad Johnson
1:50
My theory is it's a forecasting error.
1:51
If you talk about prospect projections with a few dozen "industry" people and then compare the results to historic performance, it becomes clear that folks are usually looking at 75th-percentile projections.
In other words, their projection is skewed optimistic.
1:53
We also are terrible about incorporating injury outcomes into our forecasts. That's why when people talk about prospects, they usually underestimate the potential for performance-lowering injury.
In short, folks think prospects are better than they are - and that's reinforced every time a Tatis or Soto comes along and ignored for every Carlson or Bohm or Forrest Whitley.
1:54
As always, thanks for chatting. See y'all again in 2 weeks.
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