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Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson
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Will
2:03
Will Bailey Ober finish the season as a top 100 player?
Brad Johnson
2:04
I doubt it. Too much has to go right to make that bet.
Robo Umps Now
2:04
Any advice on taking advantage of dogwater umpiring?
Brad Johnson
2:05
I mean, there are some tools for DFS that provide a very modest edge by incorporating umpire traits. For normal fantasy, they're like the weather. We don't have enough leeway to change our roster to exploit it.
Scott
2:05
H1H Categories trade. Is Paul Goldschmidt for Anthony Santander and Christian Walker fair?
Brad Johnson
2:05
I guess. I'd want Goldy.
2:06
It being H2H, what's the idea here? Trade down from a 5-cat guy to better dominate HRs?
Jackson Holliday (Again)
2:06
Do you believe he'll become a keeper worthy MLB player?  Willing to make a fantasy comp?
Brad Johnson
2:06
I said Wander earlier, and seems about as close as I'll get. I'm sure my scouting contacts will cringe if they see that.
2:07
As for MLB keeper status, that really depends on your format. If you have a lot of keepers, it could make sense. Or if you get to lock him in as $1 forever.
Swing and miss
2:08
My office has been an absolute disaster this year. Is it time to give up on players like Michael Harris, Mitch Haniger, or Tim Anderson,
Brad Johnson
2:09
I think Anderson's the easiest to walk away from. I don't expect him to age particularly well. I'd bet on rebounds from all three though.
Luis Arraez
2:10
What do you think his BA ends up being this year?
Brad Johnson
2:10
I feel like I need to do a deep dive on Arraez. He might be playing a different game than everybody else.
2:11
Like, if you only told me a player has an 87.8 avg EV and 101.4 max EV, I'd tell you that player hardcore sucks.
And I'd be very confident.
2:12
I'm wondering if he has a preternatural ability to direct the ball. Everybody else in the league is maximizing for barreled contact (or just contact in a lot of cases). Arraez might be maximizing on bbe location.
Ben
2:12
Ober or Varland?
Brad Johnson
2:12
Ober
Krugs
2:13
Castillo, Musgrove, Servino, Peralta, sonny Grey. Who would be your odd my out the rest of the way?
Brad Johnson
2:13
Severino is my pick
He doesn't have a workable slider/cutter right now which means he's just a homer prone FB pitcher with Yankee Stadium and not enough Ks.
Tell me I'm overthinking this...
2:13
I gotta trade Luis Arraez and Josh Lowe for Vlad Jr and Charlie Blackmon, right? right?
Brad Johnson
2:14
Yes. Malpractice not to try that. Though.... you could try for a better throw in than Blackmon.
I like the bold gamble on the other side of the equation, assuming certain roster shortcomings.
It's fun. Not smart, but bold sometimes wins over smart.
Brandon
2:14
Abbot for the Reds worth a flier? 5x5 categories. Worth putting a couple dollars on in a FAAB league?
Brad Johnson
2:15
Yes, worth a flier. High risk/reward in the short term
3B
2:15
Who should I be looking to trade for?
Brad Johnson
2:16
You could nibble low on JRam or Riley. More reasonably, Eugenio Suarez's peripherals are 100% normal. He'll hit a surge of HR sooner or later.
Alec Bohm might also cost almost nothing since he's out.
woodberry
2:16
Hello Brad, long time listener first time caller. Poor drafting and a very competitive league have left me with a juggernaut offense and comparatively poor pitching. Do you think it's easier to chase volume or rate stats on the pitching side (most of the high leverage relievers are gone as well)?
Brad Johnson
2:17
It's certainly easier to play the volume game, though you still need some kind of quality filter involved so you don't completely punt ERA/WHIP.
2:18
I low key stream in a 20-teamer. I've turned up Drew Smyly, Adrian Houser, and Griffin Canning this year as guys I'm holding for now.
Honestly, that's working out better than my keep of Brady Singer and my 2nd round pick of Kyle Bradish...
2:19
On that note, let's close the drapes.
As always, thanks for playing. I'll see y'all in 2 weeks.
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