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Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
1:01
Hey folks, we'll get started once I scarf this here sandwich
Buff
1:04
NL only keeper, what's your take on Garrett Mitchell's value for next year?
Brad Johnson
1:04
Going into the year, I really wasn't on Mitchell as a future starter anymore.
1:06
Then he came out of the gate with some spicy EVs and really looked the part. Still plenty of weirdness going on at the data level, especially the whiffs.
I was seeing the sorts of adjustments I didn't think he could make, which made me more bullish about further adjustments.
1:07
I still view him as more of a flier than a verifiable "asset"
It's a flier I want to take, at least into Spring Training. As always, it comes down to opportunity cost in your setting
Will in Westport
1:08
Good afternoon, Brad.  Thanks for doing these chats.  How probable do you think it is for the Padres to do a reset and trade Hader and Snell before the deadline?  And, if so, who are the likely trading partners?
RAGBRAI
1:08
I have Snell and Hader and am battling for first. If traded out of NL their loss would hurt. Chances of their being traded? If traded would have be more likely for prospects or MLB ready players?
Brad Johnson
1:09
Let's write some words about Hader and Snell.
1:10
One of the reasons I don't play AL/NL Only leagues is I hate fretting about who will/won't be traded. It's a dumb game feature imo. I like fantasy leagues that "grandfather" players who are traded out of the real league (redraft). FanTrax supports this.
1:11
Adding new guys to the pool is cool. Losing your league because you happened to invest in Snell, Hader, and like a Scherzer and had them evaporate is just pure pain.
1:12
I wrote about the Padres deadline position a bit in today's article. I'm 50/50 over whether or not I believe they intend to add.
1:13
Preller's all about accelerating whenever possible so it wouldn't surprise me if they do try to add some guys. But, it would be sensible for them to push in both directions. Sell Hader and Snell. Add whoever slips through the cracks.
1:14
So... I guess that works out to somewhere between 66-75% chance one or both are traded.
1:15
That's how I read the tea leaves. And then another 50/50 chop as to which league they're in
M's
1:15
In your special article to subscribers about the trade deadlilne, you said the Mariners were "pot committed." Was that a typo or some new phrase used by young whippersnappers like yourself? Granted, Seattle has a LOT of pot shops, and it's obvious that Mariners hitters use pot—otherwise, how do explain their slump?—but what exactly did you mean to communicate? Thanks.
Brad Johnson
1:15
Pot committed is a poker phrase.
1:18
Picture a situation where you have an incomplete hand and there's a $100 pot. Someone bets $1. Let's say there are only four possible cards in the deck that make your hand. For $1, you call every time (cash game, tourneys are different). You'll lose 92% of the time, but it only costs $1 for an 8% chance at $100.
1:19
The Mariners situation is kind of like that. They have a bunch of talent, the roster isn't expensive, there are only a couple older guys who won't contribute next year.
1:20
They might wake up on July 30 with an 8% chance to reach the postseason, and it'll still be worth going for it.
Hindsight
1:20
Had to make a move when I activated Bryce Miller from the IL yesterday, and I dropped Dane Dunning instead of Dean Kremer. In hindsight, did I drop the wrong pitcher?
Brad Johnson
1:20
I like Kremer a little bit more despite this season's results to date.
1:21
Same asset class imo - guys capable of decent runs... and miserable slumps
Vegas Lee
1:21
when is mike trout expected to return
Brad Johnson
1:21
I think it's like 17-47 more days.
Moose Tacos
1:21
Is Moose Tacos going to dead-cat bounce in LA? Nice lineup and RBI opportunities. Him or Isbel in OBP al only?
Brad Johnson
1:22
Could argue he is mid-bounce. I like him more than Isbel.
Ring that Isbel
1:22
Re: Isbel - is he going to be a thing? Have him for cheap in AL only OBP, 3-man bench, and thinking about cutting for a streaming pitcher or a Solano/Willi Castro style guy.
Brad Johnson
1:23
I'd go ahead and cut. I think Isbel will eventually figure it out, but it might take joining a new org first. The Royals don't know how to fix this kind of player.
Kirk
1:24
I have a chance to pick up Alejandro Kirk. He wouldn't displace either of my existing catchers (Yainer Diaz and Soderstrom), but i could stick him in utility and drop Mike Ford. Any suggestions?
Brad Johnson
1:24
Yea, I'd do it.
1:25
Diaz and Soderstrom are high risk to require replacement down the road. You've already banked Ford's homer binge. He doesn't have the peripherals of someone who sustains this kind of output.
1:26
Extreme LA with ordinary EVs and unusually high barrel rate. Screams regression. Sometimes, these fringy types figure out how to cheat to crush their suppose weakness. Pitchers/scouts don't notice/adjust for 100 PA because they don't respect the guy enough to check their facts.
1:27
In Ford's case, throw him a bunch of sliders and watch him K.
Carlos Hernandez
1:27
Picked up Carlos Hernandez for the Barlow trade, but he's sort of crappy. Should I keep holding? Look elsewhere?
Brad Johnson
1:27
Hernandez and Fujinami are my top RP stashes at the moment.
1:28
fwiw, Hernandez has pitched well aside from a second straight season of comically low LOB%
1:29
Last year, it was because he couldn't buy a strikeout and walked a bunch of guys. He's much better now. Like Seranthony Dominguez-caliber
Richie G.
1:29
Rumors swirl about a possible trade of Ohtani to the Yankees (among other teams). What package - if any - would the Yankees have to send to Anaheim to complete the deal?
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