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Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
1:52
He looks like one of those guys who might take a couple years before settling in as a #3 so it's not crazy to think about "selling low" (*cough*high) either.
Oscar Gamble
1:53
Who do you prefer ROS: Ranger Suarez, Gore, Tommy Henry, Ryne Nelson l, Alex Wood or Corbin?
Brad Johnson
1:53
One of these names is not like the others.
One of these names is one of my five favorite pitchers.
It's Suarez. He's great.
1:54
Those others are fodder. Gore maybe finds one more gear and turns the corner in a future season.
Wood is fine when healthy
Will in Westport
1:57
Do you foresee Keith or Malloy hitting the Tigers' major league roster first?  Which has a greater upside?
Brad Johnson
1:57
Keith by far has the better upside.
1:58
Malloy might win the race to the Majors, but I'm pretty sure he's going to look overexposed. Profile reads Quad-A to me and scout reports back it up.\
an evaluator told me he's going to crush Asia one day (paraphrasing)
RAGBRAI
1:59
The Colorado OF looks a bit crowded.  Knowing it is hard to predict what they will do at any trade deadline, do you think Grichuk is traded?  If so does Doyle take over CF?
Brad Johnson
1:59
That's as good a guess as any. Grichuk is the sort of basically-free, high-roll gamble fringy rosters look to take.
2:00
Maybe he hits 13 HR in 140 PA.
Will in Westport
2:00
In a 5x5, AL-only league, is Zach Gelof a better 2B than Jose Caballero?  It appears that Caballero has lost his grasp on 2B in Seattle.
Brad Johnson
2:01
Probably? I'm skeptical of Gelof, but I don't much care for Caballero. The SBs and discipline are nice, but there's no consistency with his contact.
2:02
I'm not sure Gelof is better in that regard, but that uncertainty is basically the sales pitch
Jdf21
2:02
What are your thoughts on a couple post-hype guys who have been heating up in Triston Casas and CJ Abrams?
Brad Johnson
2:03
Not interested in Abrams unless he's nearly free. The talent doesn't overcome his lack of discipline
I do like Casas. He mashes baseballs. Might always have a hole in his swing. Career could be Rowdy Tellez. Or Matt Olson. Still a wide range of possibilities. Worth targeting in most formats.
Social Climber
2:04
How good a fantasy manager do you need to be to participate in NFBC? To be competitive what kind of time commitment is involved? What's been your experience with NFBC?  Is it even fun or is it just all hard work?
Brad Johnson
2:04
I saved this one for near the end because... well... I've run afoul of NFBC stans in the past.
I do not find the format fun.
2:05
I actually like the no trading dimension, but the FAAB process is unplayably tedious.
It's just hard work.
2:06
There's also the hard math to consider. Each entry has a poor EV. I haven't run the numbers lately. The rake was something like 15-20% back pre-2020. Can't imagine that's gone down.
2:07
So, you have to believe you're top 10% in a field full of the top 1% fantasy players in order to feel like you have a positive EV on an entry.
They have formats that are less work or only cost like $50. I'd recommend trying those out first to test your mettle.
Certainly, don't jump into the Main Event
Dano
2:07
With all the poker references in this chat so far, you must play a lot, right?  :)
Brad Johnson
2:08
Less than I'd like. If I had my way, I'd play 60 hours a week. As it stands, I maybe play 6 hours a year.
2:09
I used to play a lot - back before Pokerpocalypse.
jdf21
2:09
I got offered Bryce Harper and Manny Machado for Elly and Jose Berrios in a dynasty keep forever league.  Am I crazy for turning this down?
Brad Johnson
2:09
Nope, not crazy. That's a good attempt by them though!
Dano
2:09
16 team H2H 6x6 league (R, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, Net SB - W, L, ERA, K, OBPA, SV+H) with 5 keepers.  I'm in 2nd.  Rotation is Elfin, Luzardo, F Peralta, Giolito, Detmers, Bradish, Manning with Lodolo on IL.  Is my rotation good enough to hold on and win this thing?  I have Bichette and Wander and could trade one of them for an ace.  I didn't keep any pitchers and it probably shows.
Brad Johnson
2:11
Honestly, I can't say without seeing the standings. I'd want to augment, but I'd need a haul to deal Bichette or Wander in a keep 5 scenario.
2:12
It does make sense to put them on the block and ask for somebody to king you.
The other thing to keep in mind is it's H2H
So it's more about commanding certain categories than chasing everything
2:13
you might be better off leaning into pitching volume (why I'd want to see the season totals to be sure) in which case you can stick with cheap additions on the margins and flood Ks/Ws and offensive categories.
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