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FantasyPros Fantasy Baseball Chat (4/1)
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Dan Harris
12:58
Hey everyone! Excited to be back for another live chat about baseball or really anything other than my kids’ schoolwork. Let’s get started!
John
12:58
JD Davis, Hunter Dozier or Bryan Reynolds? Thanks
Dan Harris
12:59
Davis>Reynolds>Dozier. Some degree of interest in all, to be honest. But Davis should have an everyday role and will likely provide the most production when he's in there.
Matt
1:00
12 team, 8 keeper league USUALLY. We agreed as a league that we would keep 20 players going into next year so that basically the team you had after our draft, is the team you would play with next year. My question Bobby is would you trade Kris Bryant for Severino and Lorenzo Cain?....I have a roster of Freeman, Altuve, Justin and Trea Turner, Yordan Alvarez. Just curious if you think it's worth sacrificing the offense Bryant MIGHT put up this year for the long term numbers I'd be relying on with Severino? Thanks for your advice!
Dan Harris
1:02
First, I'm not Bobby, unfortunately. I'd be in much better shape and have crazier food takes. But as for that deal, sure, I'm fine to do that. The prospect of baseball at all this year is obviously very up in the air, so I'd be willing to deal Bryant right now given the rest of your lineup for Severino and Cain next year. Not an overwhelming deal, but I'm fine with it.
Mark J
1:02
Thanks for taking my question!  In a 9 team National league auction keeper league.  We are allowed 9 keepers and up to 3 prospects.  I'm torn on who to pick for my last spot.  I'm keeping C Paddack $16, C Martinez 3, Z Gallen 5, G Gallegos 5, D Dahl 5, C Walker 2, E Escobar 16, and J Realmuto 15.  Two prospects are D Carlson and C Pache.  Potentials for that last spot are J Turner 15, A Aquino 5, I Happ 5, T Oneill 5, and B Kintzler 5.  Any thoughts?
Dan Harris
1:04
Not Aquino or Oneill for me. You've got some good deals so I'd take the guaranteed production with Turner despite the cost. There can't be many great options left.
Will
1:04
In a league where Marmol is not an option (for instance, a weekly lineup league where you must start 3 SP's & 3 RP's - with 2 additional P slots - but have a limit of 5 RP's total on roster), is pocket rockets your preferred strategy?  It's a SV+H league as well where I have #1 overall.  I've been going Trout, SP, SP, SP, Hader then filling out from there.  Thoughts?
Dan Harris
1:06
Again, just to be clear, I am not Bobby, so Marmol would not be my jam anyway. Bobby and I love to talk baseball but we offer very different perspectives on fantasy strategy. But, that aside, I think your strategy is fine. I have generally tried to get three starters in my first six rounds, and especially when you can lead with Trout, I think your strategy works fine.
Sammy
1:06
Whose breakout from last year are you really not buying at all?
Dan Harris
1:09
Danny Santana. He's certainly worth drafting for several reasons, including that he'll bat in the middle of a strong lineup and he offers the most precious commodity in the game - speed. But it is really difficult for me to just accept that a player who had never hit more than seven home runs in a major league season is suddenly someone who was on pace to surpass 30 last year. Whenever I see him coming up on my draft board, I almost always skip over him.
Zyler
1:09
Who in the top 200 are you farthest from the expert consensus on?
Dan Harris
1:11
Oh boy. Well, if we are talking players who are in the top 200 in ECR who I'm furthest from the consensus on, several of them are based on injury or innings limit developments based on the delayed start (Stanton, Luzardo, etc.). And I'm generally higher on catchers in my overall rankings. But other than that, Glasnow, Gallen, and Sano have the biggest difference
1:12
If we are talking players outside the top 200 in ECR but within my top 200, then it's guys like Kingery, Hampson, and Akiyama. Good question!
Ryland
1:12
Dude, you smoked that movie draft. You got more coming?
Dan Harris
1:13
I'm not kidding that had I lost the fan vote, I would have been devastated. That was like a perfect draft! We've got plenty in the hopper, including some coming on the NFL podcast and our YouTube channel. So subscribe to both and be on the lookout in the coming days!
Blake
1:13
I've heard so many analysts discussing Starlin Castro as this big sleeper. The guy hasn't been on the fantasy radar in years. Why is he suddenly everyone's favorite player?
Dan Harris
1:15
I think it's more about his 233 consensus ADP than about how he's a league-winner. He offers a solid average floor - something pretty rare in today's game, and has decent power at a thin position. Now he'll be batting in the middle of a strong lineup and in a home park where he generally crushes the ball. But yeah, I'm pretty much with you as I said on the podcast the other week. I like him. But with no speed, I'm not sure I'm getting the hype.
Brad
1:15
Your auction primer was great but you can't possibly prepare for every auction that much can you?
Dan Harris
1:18
Thanks! It's my favorite article to write (here it is for anyone interested: https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/01/fantasy-baseball-auction-primer-pr...).  No, you're right. I can't possibly do this for every mock or real auction I do, obviously. For three or four, sure, but for the rest, I need to wing it a bit. I do so many each year that I have a good feel for values anyway, but as a shortcut, I roll with the FantasyPros calculator and use my best judgment. When I can though, the article is my process. And it's a good one IMO!
The Drewminator
1:18
If you are drafting now, when do you pull the trigger and draft Stanton?
Dan Harris
1:19
I have Stanton ranked 38th at the moment so at the 3/4 turn. That's earlier than most, but he should be fully healthy whenever the season starts and he's capable of elite power production, as you know. That's about where I had him at the start of the season. Not sure why anything would change with our current situation.
Simmons
1:19
Were you really a lawyer before working for FantasyPros?
Dan Harris
1:22
Well, I'm actually still a lawyer, you know. Barred and everything. But yes, I was a practicing attorney before FantasyPros. And it was never my dream to become a fantasy analyst if I'm being honest. But after doing some work for the company in my spare time, it was so clear to me that this is a unique shop. Not only the dedication from everyone who works here but just the camaraderie and general feel. So, I made the leap. And I can say that it was the best decision I ever made (don't tell my wife I said that. And if she's reading, I meant the second best decision, honey).
Anthony Rizzo's Dad
1:22
I just read the article on your first base rankings. Why do you dislike my son so much???
Dan Harris
1:24
Haha, I don't, Mr. Rizzo. I just don't get it. He's a fantastic real-life ballplayer but he doesn't really stand out in any one category, he's 30 years old, and he offers limited upside. There are just a bunch of others that I slightly prefer. No offense meant!
JP
1:24
years back I started writing prequels/sequels to the Neverending Story and then filming my family playing the various roles. Does this mean Neverending Story is now a “franchise” like “Deadpool”?
Dan Harris
1:24
According to Mike Tagliere, yes. Also, I thought about the Shawshank Redemption four times this week. Ergo, there are four movies in the 'franchise' and I can use it. Sigh, thank goodness I won that fan vote!
Mark
1:25
Will there be baseball this year?
Dan Harris
1:25
My money is still on yes, but I admit that I'm not overly confident. It's a huge blow to the sport to lose an entire season, and they'll do what they can to get it in. But it will probably take extreme measures. I'm betting on a late-June, early-July start in some capacity. So hang in there!
Aaron
1:25
What other fantasy baseball analyst do you respect the most? And you can't name Bobby Sylvester!
Dan Harris
1:27
Well, there's this Bobby Syl . . . ok, fine! I'm going to give a little love to Mike Podhorzer. I don't see too much of Mike's written content these days, but not only has he appeared on our podcast, he taught me how to do baseball projections (which ties into my auction primer). So, there are plenty of people I could name, but I'll give Mike some love.
Jacoby
1:27
I'm curious as to where you'd draft Verlander now after his groin surgery?
Dan Harris
1:28
I have him 14th in my rankings right now, much higher than the consensus. There's almost no chance of his recovery from surgery lingering to the start of the season at this point. Yes, it's surgery and yes, he's old. But I don't view him THAT differently than I did at the start of the season at this point.
Christof
1:28
Legitimate question. You work for a fantasy sports company. What is your day like right now with no sports??
Dan Harris
1:30
Wake up. Take the dog for a long walk to tire him out. Break up a fight between my wife and kids. Home school for 30 minutes while I eat breakfast and my wife de-stresses. Then work for the rest of the day. Seriously, even with no sports, we are churning out plenty of content on the baseball, football, and sports betting side. And as Editor-in-Chief, my duties go beyond just producing content. So, trust me, I haven't been resting much!
Larry
1:30
What's your biggest criticism of the fantasy baseball industry?
Dan Harris
1:32
Understand that I think the industry and the vast majority of people in it are amazing. If I were to levy a criticism, it's that we have become over-reliant on statcast and sabermetric data. It is INCREDIBLY useful and everyone should be incorporating it into their analysis. But actual production matters, obviously. No (or very few) fantasy leagues are using hard-hit rate as a measurable category. Barrel percentage doesn't win you a fantasy league. I think sometimes we all (myself included) miss the forest for the trees a bit with that sort of analysis. That goes for football, too.
Ronny
1:32
What's the biggest fantasy mistake you ever made?
Dan Harris
1:35
Oh boy. I believe it was in 2008, I was in a close race for first in a daily lineup league. It was Votto's first real year as a solid fantasy option and he was eligible at both first base and the outfield. I decided to go to the last game at Shea Stadium (I was a season ticket holder) and watch the Mets' second straight collapse. And because I did, I didn't check my lineup (pre-fantasy app days), Votto remained in my first base slot, hit a homer, and Yahoo! statcast showed I won the entire league.  EXCEPT, I had actually reached my maximum games played at first, it didn't count the next day, and I came in second. Had I been home, I would have moved around my lineup to have Votto fill one of my three outfield spots where the player had the day off. Crushed me for weeks.
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