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FantasyPros Fantasy Baseball Chat (4/22)
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Dan Harris
12:59
Hey all! Hope everyone is staying safe and healthy. Let's get started!
Mike
12:59
What do you think the odds are of khris davis gaining of or 1b eligibility this year? During an auction draft I ended up with him at $6 but I had already drafted Nelson Cruz. Did not anticipate interest being so low and I only have one utility spot.
Dan Harris
1:01
Pretty low IMO. Obviously, Matt Olson is at first base, and although you could see Davis in the outfield over Canha or Piscotty, the reality is that Davis' season was torpedoed by the injury he got running into the wall on the foul line. The A's will want to keep him healthy all year. That means DH almost entirely.
Tom
1:01
How viable of a draft strategy is it this year to load up early on hitters, and wait for a high upside, albeit injury prone pitcher like Tyler Glasnow to have as your SP1 in this shortened season?
Dan Harris
1:03
I think having excess hitters this year certainly makes sense given that there are likely going to be a lot of doubleheaders and days off. So, particularly in daily leagues, that should be a focus. But injury-prone or not, I'd still rather take the reliable pitchers. It's true that the value of innings eaters goes down generally speaking now with the likely landscape, but you don't want to completely go upside.
Rob
1:03
I was just wondering if you can give me some advice. I joined a 16 team, 30 man roster start up dynasty auction points league. I am new to dynasty and doing auctions, so any advice would help. Thanks! Rob
Dan Harris
1:05
As a general matter, all my auction tips can be found here: https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/01/fantasy-baseball-auction-primer-pr...  But, generally speaking, you'll want to find out the approximate winning stats for categories and have finishing in the top 3 or 4 in each category as one of your aims. As for dynasty, my overall advice is to not worry so much about the long-term. Too many fantasy players think 5-10 years out. Focus more heavily on the shorter term. More predictable, and who knows if your league will even be around in 5 years.
Mike
1:06
Am I absolutely insane for taking a chance on a $1 taijuan walker? Velocity is solid new curve ball former high prospect pedigree.
Dan Harris
1:07
The answer to "am I insane for take a chance on a $1" anyone is always no. With such a minimal cost, you can't be too wrong no matter what. I'm mildly intrigued by Walker this year but I admit I've been burned enough to not waste much time with him during draft season. For $1 though, whatever!
drewminator
1:07
I have now seen you mention Kevin Cash's name twice over the last few weeks.  Where does the obsession come from?
Dan Harris
1:09
I'm sure this is meant for Bobby Sylvester, with whom I alternate weeks in these chats, because year, Bobby loves Kevin Cash. He is certainly one of the best managers in baseball and Bobby loves how he competes despite no payroll. Much of the success stems from the front office rather than Cash himself but still, the vast majority of teams would love to have him as manager.
The Goat Herders
1:09
I have one Utility slot to pick up one of these free agents in a 6x6 league(Includes OPS). B Reynolds, Puig, A Rosario or Segura. Which one?
Dan Harris
1:10
Reynolds for me. Walk rate should keep his OBP (and with it his OPS) fairly high. Can't take Puig at the moment until he signs.
Lucas
1:10
12team H2H points league.  #8 pick.  Would you take DeGrom and Buehler your first two picks?  Thanks.
Dan Harris
1:12
I have no issue with it. Again, in this environment, though, the value of pitchers decreases slightly. They won't come out of the gates throwing 100 pitches per start anyway and with all the craziness (potential frequent double-headers, few days off, Arizona heat, expanded rosters for more relievers), you'll probably see more five-inning starts than usual. So, I'm ok with it, but I would probably try to use one of those spots on a hitter.
Will
1:12
Which three would you take?  Cole, Bregman, Blackman or Yelich,  Kershaw, J D Martinez.
Dan Harris
1:13
Can't go too wrong either way. But the latter side. Take the best player and two other excellent/elite picks with it.
Frankie
1:13
I'm really feeling Mike Foltynewicz this year and feel like he'll be a difference-maker. Am I crazy?
Dan Harris
1:15
Difference-maker? Meh, that's probably overstating it. But yeah, I'm a huge fan. Like everyone else, I faded him last year, but he really impressed me in the second half. Look at the numbers against his slider in September (.125 BA, .250 SLG, .171 wOBA against the pitch). That was his bread and butter in 2018 and if he really just needed to recover from injury to find its effectiveness, then he should be a major contributor when the season starts.
Trevor
1:15
I'm trying to create dynasty rankings but haven't played in the format before. What's your general process in terms of weighing players' values now versus years in the future?
Dan Harris
1:17
Touched on this early, and it's a great question. First, we do have expert consensus dynasty rankings on the site so be sure to check them out. But, overall, I'd say it's something like 30% this year, 25% next year, 25% the third year, and 20% all future years combined. In other words, weigh more heavily the immediate future. Long-term outlooks should certainly come into play, but not nearly as much as many newer fantasy owners think IMO.
Peyton
1:17
I feel like there has just been this acceptance that Yu Darvish is just back to his dominant self because one half season that followed an awful 1.5  seasons. Why?
Dan Harris
1:20
Yup, I get the hesitation. But when players have such a stark change in performance, the question is always whether or not there is something we can point to to explain it. Darvish obviously cut down on his walk rate significantly (13 batters walked over his last 106.1 innings). Part of it was he said he simply hadn't been healthy in the past, but also, he started incorporating a splitter and pretty much ditched his slider, against which batters had enormous success. So, my feeling on him is that with the change in repertoire and with increased health, I'm willing to buy the drastic improvement.
Brian
1:20
Are they going to play baseball this year? A. Yes. B. Heck yes. C. Without question. You must choose one.
Dan Harris
1:21
No D. All of the above? I'm growing increasingly optimistic. If for no other reason than our collective psyche desperately needs it!
Adam
1:21
I feel like we should just avoid drafting closers entirely with the delay. Just completely punt. High-end relievers only.
Dan Harris
1:22
I like your style, Adam. Yeah, I think saves are going to be completely up in the air when baseball returns. Shortened games, few days off, expanded rosters. I think there are going to be more "committees" than ever before, meaning save totals necessary to win fantasy leagues will likely be less. I'd like to get at least one "guaranteed" option but moreso than ever, simply ignoring saves in your draft is a viable strategy.
Ed
1:23
Give me one player no one is talking about who will benefit the most from the delayed beginning and all these crazy plans. Not pitchers with innings limits or who are recovering from injury. Just your ordinary player who is going to benefit from not having the normal year and instead playing with this delayed start and all in Arizona or whatever they're gonna do.
Dan Harris
1:25
Man, so many rules. How about Jonathan Villar? One of my big knocks with Villar coming into the year was his move to a much more pitcher-friendly park and the potential to lose playing time on a rebuilding team. But now, it seems highly unlikely he'll be playing his home games in Marlins Park, and the classic "phase out the veterans" type of strategy is probably out the window this year. It's sort of like a mulligan IMO. Teams will just want to make baseball as exciting and with as good a quality as ever. Think that benefits someone like Villar here.
Joey
1:25
According to your Twitter profile, you might be the most accurate all-around expert in the game? Top 20 in baseball, Top 15 in sports betting, Top 10 in football? How do you do that across those various areas?
Dan Harris
1:29
My process is a little different across the various arenas. If I'm being honest, baseball is much more of an informal process for me. I do make my own projections, but I don't necessarily rank according to those projections. I create my rankings as a draft guide, which necessarily involves factors other than "what will the numbers wind up being" (i.e., position flexibility, etc.). With fantasy football, I cannot possibly explain to you how much of a grind it is. Early-week projections to create initial rankings, four hours on Saturday night re-running projections based on weather, intel from the teams, etc., followed by an hour or two refining on Sunday. As for sports betting, it's mostly just following trends and signals from the market. And just obsessively doing projections for football. It's all fun, but glad my processes have worked so far.
Tom Ace
1:29
Explain to me Andrew Benintendi. What in the world happened to him and do we think there's a bounceback coming?
Dan Harris
1:30
Loooooooong story short, I think he got overly aggressive, as evidenced by his increased strikeout rate, lower walk rate, and terrible batting average against offspeed pitches. That certainly seems correctable, so I'm buying, albeit cautiously
Lucas
1:31
What is your least favorite format to play?
Dan Harris
1:31
H2H categories. Just too much about manipulating your weekly lineup vs. your opponent as opposed to fantasy "skill." Love all formats, of course, but that's my least favorite.
Matty
1:31
I feel like I've seen you talk about how you're down on Xander Bogaerts this year. Care to elaborate?
Dan Harris
1:33
Yeah, and to be clear, I think Bogaerts is great and would be fine to have him on my team. But if you take away the actual numbers, Bogaerts' batted ball data and underlying metrics look pretty identical from 2018-2019, which makes me think last year's increased output may have been more of a mirage. Plus, he just doesn't steal anymore. Only four last year! That's a huge ding to his value, particularly at a deep position.
Jen
1:33
Why does everyone love Dylan Bundy so much? As an O's fan, I can say with a lot of confidence that he's just not that good.
Dan Harris
1:35
I'm firmly on the Bundy train so a pox on your house. No, too harsh. I respectfully disagree. Yes, that's better. I get it. But it's really just about how his fastball gets absolutely destroyed. And although it has a low velocity, it's got an elite spin rate, which means he should have success with it if he just throws it up in the zone more. The Angels' coaching staff is analytical and probably understands that, so he should improve, particularly considering how elite his slider is.
Maximus
1:35
Who is the reliever who you like more today than when you originally put together your rankings?
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