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FantasyPros Fantasy Baseball Chat (5/13)
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Dan Harris
1:00
Welcome, everyone. We’re another day closer to baseball so let’s get our fantasy chat going. All questions welcomed.
Mike
1:00
If the current proposals are approved and the season opens July 4th with 82 games and most being played within the division, how do your starting pitching rankings and strategy change? New top 5 or 6? Thanks.
Dan Harris
1:02
Not all that much. I've been pretty consistent that the value of innings eaters goes down slightly, but that's a bit more geared toward overall rankings, and really doesn't affect the top few. So my top 6 are still Cole, deGrom, Buehler, Scherzer, Verlander, and Clevinger, personally.
Fast Eddie
1:02
Why is Starlin Castro being drafted so late?  He's eligible at 2nd and 3rd, plays for a better team this year and hits for average and power.  I have no problem getting him late and plugging him in at 2nd base.
Dan Harris
1:04
That's fine, and I understand that there's a lot of love for Castro this year as a sleeper. But he just doesn't have a ton of upside, you know? Steals are gone, has never hit more than 22 homers or driven in 90 runs. It's fine as a second baseman but plenty more I'd prefer.
Jerry
1:04
It sounds like the owners are proposing more of an 80-game, rather than a 100-game schedule? How does that change how you are analyzing fantasy baseball going forward, if at all?
Dan Harris
1:06
It impacts it to the extent I'm not quite as worried about doubleheaders or no days off. That's basically a normal schedule - half the season left as of July 1. So, to the extent I was making major changes to my rankings based on the assumption of a crazy pace, I'm removing those (and will have my rankings done by the morning) to account for a more normal schedule.
Pinky
1:06
There are rumors that rosters could be expanded an insane amount, to almost double the typical 25-man roster? Do we just draft prospects non-stop going forward or what?
Dan Harris
1:08
I just can't imagine that we are going to see 45-50 players sitting on the bench at one time. My guess is it's more like 30-35 and we have some sort of taxi squad ready to go. So, I do think there will be some more prospects, especially given that there will be no minor league season most likely. But I doubt it's a free-for-all
Rex
1:08
How does the rumored "play only against your division and corresponding division in the other league" impact your feelings on players?
Dan Harris
1:10
I think it has a fairly big impact on a select few, at least. The general move is the bump to AL pitchers, slight downgrade to NL pitchers. But, specifically, pitchers in the AL Central probably get a boost, because the NL Central is, top to bottom, the weakest hitting division in the NL if not the majors. So, Kenta Maeda goes from sleeper to even better sleeper.
Spencer
1:10
How does your draft strategy change depending on league size?
Dan Harris
1:12
It's not a crazy change, and it probably depends on the specific draft position I'm in. I usually hit the elite starters a little harder early in larger leagues (15-teamers for example) because I think getting some of the elite ones are key, and you can wait longer in 10-teamers. But short answer is that I'll go for higher upside in 10-team leagues, more stability in 15-teamers.
Jaleel
1:12
I never hear Gregory Polanco's name as someone whose stock has risen with the delay. Been snatching him up everywhere.
Dan Harris
1:14
Sigh, Polanco is a player I can never seem to quit. Being fair, it’s not like he’s a stud even when healthy. He’s basically a 20-20 player with upside for more if everything breaks right, but it’s unlikely that he’ll ever be a significant power or speed threat, even with an increased launch angle. For someone with an ADP past 300, yeah, of course, I’m more than fine with him there, especially with the delay. But not going to be counting on too much.
Brian
1:14
I know the shortstop position is deep this year, but I feel like Amed Rosario is still being overlooked. Thoughts?
Dan Harris
1:15
Much more about position depth than a knock on Rosario, as you alluded to. He certainly has enough speed to mater in today’s game with 43 over the last two years, though he doesn’t have a great success rate. And he’s almost certain to bat low in the order, and probably ninth with the likely introduction of the universal DH. So, runs and RBI probably won’t be abundant. But, honestly, 170th overall in consensus ADP given the depth of the position? Yeah, I think that’s about right. You want to complain that he shouldn’t be going nearly two rounds after Elvis Andrus, however, that’s fair.
Guest
1:16
Would you drop Corey Dickerson or Josh James for Rich Hill?
Dan Harris
1:16
Definitely Dickerson. I'd hold James, personally.
John
1:16
In a 10-team roto, would you go for Dustin May's upside or Anibal Sanchez, an innings-eater who should get a pretty good number of wins and strikeouts?
Dan Harris
1:17
Really don't think Anibal is worth much in a 10-team league. As I mentioned, much more about upside in smaller formats, and Sanchez doesn't offer any. I'd go with May because, if he doesn't work out, there will be plenty of other options on the waiver wire.
Ricardo
1:17
I have always had this completely irrational love of Steven Matz. With his spot now being guaranteed thanks to Thor's injury, can I finally buy into him as a late-round sleeper?
Dan Harris
1:18
Nope. He improved in the second half, for sure. 3.52 ERA vs. 4.89, 2.94 wOBA against vs. .353. But half seasons certainly don’t override entire careers and we’ve got an entire career of mediocrity from Matz. He’ll give you an ERA close to 4.00 and a WHIP close to 1.30 with mediocre strikeout rates. There’s little in the underlying data to suggest a breakout is coming.
Larry
1:18
Hello. Trade insight. Realmuto/Stroman for Luis Castillo. Roto keeper league. Thoughts? Preference?
Dan Harris
1:20
Castillo for me, though it may depend on the specifics of the keeper format. I understand getting a top catcher, but Castillo should have a bright and long future ahead of him. Realmuto is great but we know the typical career arc for a catcher suggests there isn't too much time left, and Stroman is just a guy. I'd take the ace.
Marvcus
1:20
More impact in Saves this year. Corey Knebel or Jordan Hicks. Any chance either gets to 10 saves?
Dan Harris
1:22
Honestly, neither. It's hard to see Hicks being inserted into that type of role anytime soon, and Knebel's best bet would be to jump in every now and then to relieve Hader later in the year. But if the over/under for saves on either were 3.5, I'd take the under.
Carl
1:22
Bichette for Berrios & Fried. You like Bo or pitcher combo meal? Keep three years, roto.
Dan Harris
1:23
Really depends on team need, but I'd likely take the pitchers. Yes, Bichette could go nuts and has enormous upside. But your losses are capped at three years, so a mistake doesn't kill you. Berrios combines safety with upside, while Fried could do a ton. I'd take the arms.
Jamie
1:23
Who are your top 5 closers this year? And was this impacted by the shortened season?
Dan Harris
1:24
Negative, ghostrider. Same order, I believe. Hader-Yates-Chapman-Osuna-Hendriks for me. But, it's really a tier of the top 4. Question marks galore after that.
Matt
1:24
Universal DH means Wil Myers and Franchy Cordero become much more interesting in five OF'er Roto leagues, right?
Dan Harris
1:26
You are correct sir, yes. Wil Myers is a huge winner with the universal DH (which is good because I have all the shares). I thought he might win an outfield job anyway, but now that there will almost certainly be a universal DH, he and Franchy seem petty safe for playing time.
Guest
1:26
MacKenzie Gore or Nick Madrigal for this season?
Dan Harris
1:28
It's really apples and oranges, honestly, because it's hitter vs. pitcher, and might depend on league size. But I will take the upside of Gore. Madrigal's minor-league track record shows a complete lac of power thus far, so I'd rather take the player in whom I feel more confident can hit the ground running in the majors.
Xavier
1:28
How many points do I need to win a 12 team 5x5 roto league? How many for a top 4 finish?
Dan Harris
1:30
I hate to give a standard answer, so I'll just give you from my history. In my 12-team leagues, the average winner totals 95, 98, and 103 points over the last 5 seasons. 4th place is at 80, 84, 86 in those same leagues.
Guest
1:30
Which side of the deal do you prefer...Altuve, Stanton, Wil Myers OR Eloy, V. Robles, E. Escobar
Dan Harris
1:31
I'll take the former. Two best players IMO and  I am a big Myers fan with the DH.
mike
1:31
please rank votto cj cron and christian walker in order of who you would prefer in H2H league
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