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FantasyPros Fantasy Baseball Chat (5/27)
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Dan Harris
12:00
Hey there, everyone. Let's get started with today's fantasy baseball chat! Any and all questions answered.
Redbull44
12:00
Do you think there’s a chance Mackenzie Gore makes the Padres rotation in a shortened 2020 season?
Dan Harris
12:01
I think Gore may get some starts, sure, considering that there's not going to be a minor league season. But the Padres' rotation is not terrible - Paddack, Richards, Lamet, Davies, Lucchesi. There's enough there to succeed for now. My guess is he is in the majors, pitching in as a reliever or spot starter.
Miles
12:02
so I’ve already asked Bobby this but I’d like to get your opinion as well. There is a minor league pitcher on the Red Sox named Jose Ramirez. So when he was placed up for auction in our auction league I placed a pretty hefty bid and won. When i realized what happened, I wanted to get a refund. The commish was the one who put him up for auction and doesn’t want to re-do it. What should we do?
Dan Harris
12:04
Barf. So, look, as the commissioner, I certainly wouldn't have put him up for auction and had someone else done it, I would have reversed it. Fantasy is fun - winning at all costs or deliberately fooling someone is bush league. That said, if the commish made the ruling, you'd probably need to abide by it, but just find a new league next year. Really, one of those "no rules were broken but give me a break" type of thing. Hope everyone comes to their senses.
Jane
12:04
Which player are you avoiding the most assuming a shortened season?
Dan Harris
12:05
I'm trying pretty hard not to overreact to the shortened season because there's a bit of overanalysis going around out there. Pitchers like Zack Greinke, who may not wow you with a strikeout rate but who are reliable innings eaters, are pushed down in my rankings a bit. And someone like Matt Chapman, who now has to play even a higher percentage of his games in Houston and Seattle, where he usually struggles, and in the NL West parks, also takes a hit.
Red
12:05
Thank you for these chats, they are great. Could you rank these SP’s please? M.Keller, D.Bundy, J.Musgrove, R. Hill and C.Archer. Thanks!
Dan Harris
12:07
Thanks, Red. To be honest, I get that people aren't that excited about fantasy baseball right now. But hopefully once there is more optimism about the season starting, the juices will begin flowing again. As for your question, in that exact order actually, with little separating the top 4 (seven spots total in my starting pitcher rankings). Archer a decent step behind.
Drewminator
12:07
Where to you have James Paxton ranked as a starting pitcher?
Dan Harris
12:08
29th for now. I'm constantly evaluating, but he falls just outside that really reliable range for me, even with full health expected.
Justin
12:08
Who do you like as an upside play between M Keller, AJ Puk and J James? Thanks!
Dan Harris
12:09
I like all of them, of course. If I knew James were guaranteed a starting spot, he'd be my guy. And, frankly, I'm expecting that, so I do have him JUST slightly above Puk. Really like all three guys, all have massive upside, but it's James>Puk>Keller for me.
JR
12:10
Building on your Greinke comment, do you see high k rate pitchers taking on more value? How much more valuable are the top 5 SPs?
Dan Harris
12:12
Again, trying not to overreact TOO much to the shortened season. For me, it's not as much the increase in value to high K-rate pitchers, it's the decrease in value to guys who see upticks in draft stock based on their innings. Greinke is always my go to because his K rate is in decline. But you feel confident he's going to give you 200 innings each year so his excellent ratios have even a greater impact. But that's just not going to be the case this year because a guy like Jesus Luzardo now doesn't have innings limit concerns, so that likely 60-inning gap between the two goes down to zero. So, in the end, not really bumping up high-K pitchers, just bumping down guys whose value comes from innings just a tad.
Kristof
12:12
Which first baseman do you own the most shares of and are higher on than everyone else?
Dan Harris
12:14
Well, those are really two different questions. The one I have the most shares of is Hoskins. I'm not WAY higher on Hoskins than consensus or anything, but when it comes down to it, I am usually grabbing him a few spots higher in an overall draft than most. In terms of greatest differential in ECR, it's actually Miguel Sano (who is first base eligible in a lot of leagues because of his games played there last year and because it will be his primary position. The dual eligibility is nice, but we know how hard he hits the ball and the Twins committed to him this offseason with the three-year deal. I see every reason to be bullish.
Mark
12:14
Looking at my last bench spot would you go with CJ Cron or roll the dice with a Myers or Carson?
Dan Harris
12:16
My heart says Myers, just because I want so many shares of him with the universal DH. But it's the underrated Cron, on whom I'm also higher this year than most. He's a forgotten man in Detroit a bit, but should provide rock solid power numbers. Myers and Carson do have more upside, but Cron is a guy you can stick in your lineup without much worry.
Redbull44
12:16
Is Yoenis Cespedes worthy of a roster spot if the universal DH is implemented in 2020?
Dan Harris
12:18
I think so, yeah. Haven't been too many updates on him lately but he was making good progress earlier this spring, and the big drawback was his inability to play the field. With the universal DH, assuming no setbacks, he should be good to go for plate appearances. That said, the Mets like Dom Smith's bat, too, and they may want to get J.D. Davis off the field whenever they can. So worth a roster spot in deeper leagues, but not a savior.
Drewminator
12:18
Who will have the most saves out of these guys.....Jordan Hicks, David Robertson, Corey Knebel?
Dan Harris
12:19
Knebel for me. I would be surprised if the Cards push Hicks given that they have plenty of other candidates in their pen, and Neris has done enough to hold the job in Philly. The Brewers would still prefer to use Hader for two innings at a time when possible, meaning it's more likely IMO that Knebel sneaks in with some saves than the rest.
Alan
12:20
With the understanding that nobody ever has actually risked money on fantasy, of course, how do you handle this weird year with monetary prizes? Change the entry fee? Waive it altogether?
Dan Harris
12:22
This is a good question, and one I'm wrestling with as commissioner of several leagues. The short answer is to let the league decide. Put it to a vote, see what everyone wants. I was surprised in one of my leagues how many guys wanted to go along with the full entry fee. The bigger issue, for me, is what to do with keeper leagues. A lot of guys are pushing back on wasting an entire year of eligibility on this season. Personally, I'd just as soon default to the status quo. It's a weird year, but that's just what it is. Once you get to too many tweaks, might cause problems in future years.
Jimbo
12:22
Are you stashing any rookies this year assuming the shortened season, or is that not a viable strategy?
Dan Harris
12:24
As Bill and Ted aptly put it when discussing Socrates's philosophy, the ultimate wisdom comes from knowing that you know nothing. We know there's not going to be a minor league season, we know with the shortened season that every game is critical, and we know there are going to be expanded rosters. We also know that some teams are cutting salaries and not even paying minor leaguers the minimum amounts they make, which suggest they're not too keen on just wasting years of service time on whatever we'll be dealing with this year. Am I drafting more rookies now than I was back in February? Yeah, truthfully, I am. Am I counting on them to make a huge impact on my team? No, I'm not. Best I can summarize it.
Rich K
12:24
Hi Dan. Thanks for chatting. Do you think Wil Myers is being underrated this year due to recency bias? He should get full-time at-bats, or close to it, with a DH, and last year’s strikeout rate looks like an outlier. His strikeout rate was down to 18% in spring training part 1 (he claims to have simplified his swing), and he was raking (1.097 OPS). And he’s only 29 and two years removed from two very productive seasons (28 hr, 28 sb in 2016; 30 hr, 20 sb in 2017). I think he should be a top-150 player this year, but his ADP is 288. Where would you rank him?
cool 1
Dan Harris
12:27
There is a gif from the Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt where Titus says "You. Me. Same." That's how I feel about this. Now, with the understanding that I am constantly updating my rankings, I currently have him 218. But he's a guy I find myself taking higher than that, which probably means I need to move him up. Hard to see him not playing most days with the universal DH. But top 150 is a little bullish even for me. Top 200, I will probably end up there. But you still should be able to grab him.
Justin
12:27
Follow up to Myers question, I know you are high on A Garcia are you still taking him over Myers?
Dan Harris
12:29
So, I have my rankings open while I do these chats just to make sure I'm staying consistent. I have Myers at 218, Garcia at 219. Not a joke. I like them both this year, and both benefit from the universal DH. Myers' speed is what slightly tips the scales for me, personally. But with the Brewers likely staying in Miller Park for home games, it's really a toss-up for me.
Yair
12:29
What in the world do we do with Judge at this point?
Dan Harris
12:31
I took some heat from my colleagues about my low ranking of Judge throughout the spring and the delay, but I was just not optimistic about him returning anytime soon. With basically half the season gone, I have slowly moved him up in my rankings to 87th overall right now, and that feels about right to me. I can't imagine I'll have any shares of him, but if the price continues to drop with the recent neutral (or negative) news, eventually it's worth the upside.
Isabella
12:31
Hi! Is Jesus Luzardo worth the squeeze of drafting as a Top 30-35 starter? Or, let him be someone else's treasure? 3yr contracts in keep seven, mixed Roto keeper league.
Dan Harris
12:33
Oh yeah, not a close question for me. With the delay, I currently have Luzardo as a top 20 pitcher in redraft leagues. So if you're adding in a keeper element to it, with seven keepers, he'll clearly make the grade for me. Zero hesitation.
Guest
12:33
I am in a H2H league and was offered a trade Freddie Freeman and Rafeal Devers for my Juan Soto and Kris Bryant.  I hold Paul Schmidt and Mark Olson.  My outfield are Acuna, Pham, Stanton, JD Martinez.  Losing Soto is tough but would get better in 2 positions.
Dan Harris
12:35
In a vacuum, I'd take the Freeman/Devers side, but with Olson and Goldschmidt, not really sure adding Freeman is the right move for you. I'm fine either way, honestly, but I'd only do it if you have a free corner and util spot for all the first basemen.
Mark
12:35
Convince me to draft Bundy...cause I just can't do it.
Dan Harris
12:38
Haha, well, if we're in a league together - are we? Tell me the truth - then I won't. But for me, coming in, it was pretty clear that Bundy's fastball was holding him back. He has an elite slider, rest of his pitches are fine. The fastball lacks velocity and he leans into it. The thing is, though, it has an ELITE spin rate, which makes it tough to hit if thrown up in the zone. He just never threw it there. Whether that was a failure on his part or on the part of the Orioles' coaching staff is an open question, but the Angels are more analytically-minded and surely recognize how to maximize Bundy's potential. Also, he'll basically be living in pitcher-friendly parks now in exclusively the AL West and NL West, so there's even more reason to be bullish on him.
Shivam
12:39
Focus on power/hitters in short season or lock down rock solid starting rotation in your drafts? I'm leaning towards one ace, load up on hitters and fill out rotation with low ceiling, high floor, boring starters on good teams.
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