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Dan Harris
2:25
Thanks for noticing! There’s no magic formula. I do projections for both baseball and football, and I’ve honed my methodology over the years. With baseball, that’s pretty much all it is. Projections at the start of the year, refining them each week. For football, same deal, both for draft and weekly. But weekly is an absolute grind. Requires constant updating, including through Sunday morning for me when inactives come out. It’s a tremendous amount of work, which is why you should really follow the guys who do well in the accuracy competitions. I will add, however, that I don’t ignore my own personal feelings entirely, because there have been plenty of times where my projections say “Start X player over Y player” but I’m faced with that exact decision and do the opposite – so I adjust my rankings accordingly (those are in situations where the projections are close, mind you).
Guest
2:25
Sitting at #8 in the first round, Cole and Scherzer are both options. I had Cole last year and am a bit worried about him pitching in a bang box for half a season, which leaves me leaning towards Scherzer. Am I wrong to be feeling this way?
Dan Harris
2:26
First of all, always do you. If you have concerns, go with your gut. But I’m definitely taking Cole. He’s always had home run issues anyway and works around them. And Scherzer finally started breaking down a bit last year with the back and is much older. It’s Cole and not all that close for me. But you do you!
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Franklin
2:26
What player do you have the most shares of this year?
Dan Harris
2:28
Rhys Hoskins. I’m all aboard the Hoskins train. I understand that he’s got a three-year decline in pretty much every statistical category. But look at his numbers before he got hit on the hand in mid-August. Was on pace for 32 home runs and a .241 average. He took a nosedive after that and I’m willing to buy the injury narrative. Age-27 season, great walk rate. I’ve been buying.
Justin
2:28
Which player, unlikely to be drafted in a standard league, has the best chance to put a fantasy team over the top? Whether its a player currently injured, or a mid-season call up- which guy should be one of the first pick ups later in the season?
Dan Harris
2:29
I think Michael Kopech and MacKenzie Gore have the opportunity to be impact starters when they come up, and given how scarce reliable starting pitching is, I'd be looking at them. Obviously Jo Adell has the upside, but he seems to be drafted in standard leagues.
Davey
2:30
How many fantasy baseball leagues do you play in each year?
Dan Harris
2:30
I had made an effort to cut them down significantly in recent years to just three. But I’ll be honest, the list is growing now, most of them analyst leagues. My problem is that I can’t not actively manage a league, even if I fall out of contention. So I find myself spending more and more time trying to be fair to my leagues and manage and it’s slowly crushing my spirit. But this year, whenever baseball starts, it will be 8. I can’t imagine football . . . .
Alex
2:30
If you had to pick one stat to rely on to evaluate hitters and pitchers for fantasy baseball, which one would it be?
Dan Harris
2:31
Man, I hate answering this (but don’t hate you, Alex!), because there is no one stat. But for pitchers, it’s probably swinging strike rate and for hitters it’s probably wOBA. Swinging strike rate is usually a fair indication of a pitcher’s stuff and wOBA is overall a hitter’s offensive value. But I will stress that there is no one category, you should be looking at a ton of data before formulating an opinion, and I already hate this answer.
Mike Trout
2:31
Should Jesus Luzardo be going under 100?
Dan Harris
2:32
Thanks for stopping by, Mike. Look, I'm personally not and have him in the 120 range, but I have no issues with it given his upside and the fact that a shortened season should obviate any innings concerns. Enormous upside, obviously. But for now, I'm still not quite there.
Bryn
2:32
How do you draft your first 4 picks? Do you take 2 SP and 2 hitters?
Dan Harris
2:33
That is generally how my drafts have been unfolding because I put a premium on starting pitching early, but I do not have any rules. I may go four hitters, I may go four pitchers (probably not). I never have a set strategy. But generally, yup, that's how I usually end up.
Rob
2:33
Do limited innings guys (Luzardo, Urias, Hill) benefit by now being able to pitch a "full" season? Who else would you bump up?
Dan Harris
2:35
100% and Bobby and I talked about it on this week's podcast. hose are three great names, and Lance McCullers, too. He should be capped at 120 which will probably take us to a full season at least. And injured hitters (Stanton, Calhoun), too, of course.
Pete
2:35
When do you think baseball starts up again and how has it affected how you evaluate players?
Dan Harris
2:35
I’d honestly just be guessing. I’m hoping for June 15th but that’s all it is – hope. Everyone’s safety is obviously the biggest priority as it should be. But I’m sure they’ll make every effort to get as much of the season in as they can. As for my strategy, well, I’ve updated both players who had injury concerns (Stanton, Clevinger, etc.) and pitchers with innings limits (Urias, McCullers, etc.) like Rob suggested. Best we can do.
Charles
2:35
Favorite baseball memory?
Dan Harris
2:36
Oh, good one. I think it was going to Mike Piazza’s first game back to Shea Stadium when he was with the Padres. My father rarely went to games but we loved Mike so we decided to go, and somehow got our signals crossed and went to batting practice like 2 hours before the game (he thought I wanted to, I thought he did). We were some of the only people in the stadium to watch him. And then to be there with my dad to give him a standing ovation during his first at-bat. Piazza and the Mets were a huge part of my relationship with my dad. Was really glad we went.
drunkenwolverine
2:36
What are your thoughts on Michael Fulmer and his fantasy impact with this delayed season and beyond?
Dan Harris
2:38
Certainly not excited about this season. Even if he is back by the time the season starts, can't imagine he'll contribute much and the Tigers will be careful. Long-term, I mean, he strikes out seven guys per nine and really hasn't developed his secondary stuff enough. I'm not really a buyer.
Jackson
2:38
Who is the player you are highest on against the expert consensus and why? Same with lower?
Dan Harris
2:40
Good one! Not including injury adjustments (i.e., some experts haven’t yet accounted for the effect of the delay), I’m way higher on Garrett Hampson (expect him to find playing time even if it’s as a super utility player), Sam Hilliard (power-speed upside), Ender Inciarte (I have him at 225 so don’t get mad, but with an everyday job, can still chip in as a late-round guy), and pretty much any decent catcher (Garver, Ramos, Smith, etc.). As for lower, Justin Upton (you know what? I’m too low on Upton), Jake Odorizzi (I’ll NEVER buy it. Foreva? Foreva eva?), Robbie Ray (ditto, don’t come at me with some standing at a different spot on the mound suddenly fixes my control issues nonsense), and Eduardo Rodriguez (value propped up by wins which I expect to be gone).
Joe Gould
2:40
Which players stand to benefit most from an innings limit perspective? A lot of guys who might have been tabbed for 150 innings in 2020 are looking at a rise in value.
Dan Harris
2:41
Yup, don’t want to belabor this because a lot of people are asking about this (and it’s a great question and shows that everyone is thinking about it correctly), so I'll try to make this my last answer on the topic for now. But certainly Urias, McCullers, Luzardo, and Hill have gone up in value. So, too, have the Clevingers of the world and other injured starters.
Shawn
2:41
Are you really Bobby's boss like he said on the podcast? Are you Tags' boss too??? How can I be you?
Dan Harris
2:42
Ok, first, if you want to be me, here are some tips. You need to have a gargantuan and oversized head, develop a quick wit as a way to avoid getting beaten up constantly in junior high school, and learn where to order extra wide sneakers. Second, technically, yes, as Editor-in-Chief, it’s fair to characterize me as Bobby’s and Tags’ superior within the FantasyPros organizational structure. But they’re both smarter and cooler than I am, so it pretty much equals it out. And no, I’m not going to accept bribes to make them do silly things and embarrass themselves. I’ll do it for free! Just send along a request.
Mike
2:43
What are your expectations for Ohtani in a league where he can be used as both a hitter and pitcher?
Dan Harris
2:45
Well, Ohtani wasn't likely going to pitch before mid-May, so the delay helps him overall. If you mean you can swap him in and out of the positions daily, then it's a huge boost. I'd say he might sneak up into the 5th round there, assuming he starts as a pitcher once a week and hits 3-4 times a week. If it's a weekly league and you can only put him as either a hitter or a pitcher each week, then more like an eighth-rounder
Shania
2:45
How old are you?
Dan Harris
2:45
Well, that depends.Mentally and emotionally: Like 60. I yell at kids to get off my lawn, still have cable, and generally read at home with a good book to relax. Physically: 85 at least. I am not a gym rat. Actually: 39.
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Gulliver
2:45
Who are you avoiding this year and why?
Dan Harris
2:46
Well, at the moment, everyone! But assuming you meant in fantasy baseball, it’s Xander Bogaerts. I think he’s a great player but a) he plays the deepest position, b) his underlying metrics were very similar in 2018 and 2019 so not sure I buy the growth, c) his stolen bases have declined to the nearly non-existent level, and d) I’m just a little wary of that whole Red Sox team. Just not feeling him at his ADP right now.
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Steve
2:46
What do you expect from Verlander....how much will the surgery affect his performance?  Thanks!
Dan Harris
2:48
So, for me, the surgery right now has had little impact on my outlook. Sounds like he should be fully recovered by June 1 (the earliest I'd expect the season to start, and even that seems highly iffy), and I've heard nothing that makes me concerned long-term. He's obviously older, but having the surgery now is probably a good thing long-term. So, I still expect him to be a top-five pitcher as of now.
Philly
2:48
That wasn't a real picture of your fridge with all that Dairy Queen, was it?
Dan Harris
2:49
Oh it was. But that’s what our refrigerator always looks like. My wife loves Dairy Queen more than any person in the world loves anything. I don’t know why. If there is a sale, she will maximize her ROI.
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Corey
2:49
Is it a good method to go after middle of the line pitchers like Lamet, Pearson, Tanaka, Smyly, etc for an auction league? I always stray away from the high priced ones and go after more of the higher profile offensive guys. If this is good do you have a couple more of these pitchers I should go after? Thanks!
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