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Feb12 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:03
Great to be back on this Super Bowl Monday, err, Pitchers and Catchers Week! Get ready for the iPhone videos of bullpen sessions and players ... stretching! In all seriousness, this DOES mean that the season is getting closer, and your questions on players, keepers, draft strategy, etc are all the more imminent. Thanks for what's in the queue, keep 'em coming!
will
12:09
AL only 4x4 keepr league. thoughts on Correa bounceback, Trout and his health, Vlady regaining form and Nestor regaining excellence. as always, Thank you Brent!
Brent Hershey
12:09
Correa - all depends on health, but seems like he should be good to get back to low-20s HR and a doesn't-hurt BA. Not a target for me, but fine where ADP has him going
Trout - heh, similar to Correa on health, but ceiling is much higher. BA plus power profile; injury last year (hamate) was kinda fluky. Would prefer him over Correa of course.
Vlad - think the floor is still really high, super durable, and the upside remains if he could hit fewer grounders. Pay for the stability (rather than the upside) only, and if there's more, it's gravy.
Nestor - again, not a target but perfectly fine choice if he's not overpriced in drafts or on your keeper list. I was big fan going into last year; those attributes still there -- along with injury risk.
Michael W
12:15
Happy almost spring training Brent! With the superbowl out of the way now we can focus on the fun stuff. In a 6x6 OBP dynasty league with 7 minor league spots. Looking at the following options to draft what is the order in which you would prefer these players: Walter Jenkins, Chase DeLauter, Jett Williams or Nehomar Ochoa Jr? I guess I’m wondering is it better to go with players closer to the majors with a better chance of playing time (DeLauter), or the more talent but further away (Jenkins or Ochoa)? And I realize Ochoa might be an early grab before he rises.
Brent Hershey
12:15
My order would be Jenkins, Williams, DeLauter and then Ochoa. Ceiling for Jenkins wins out in this case; has had solid walk rates early on, too. Always a balance in dynasty; the pure talent vs. proximinty. Then the two guys closer to the majors; I just prefer Williams to DeLauter. Would kinda agree that just 7 minors slots, Ochoa might be too much of a reach.
Guest
12:19
Deep NL-only keeper league, 12 teams. I plucked Smith-Shawver in last year's supplemental draft and had the "misfortune" of having his rapid climb start his clock. I really do not see a path to value for him this year, even at .50 salary. My lean is toward tossing him back ahead of next month's league draft, rather than wasting a roster spot. Am I seeing this clearly or is he an investment worth protecting?
Brent Hershey
12:19
I'd wait as long as you can to make this decision. On the one hand, AJSS could well be the Braves' 6th SP and just an injury away from the rotation. The stuff moves. Other hand -- rookie SP are pretty bad fantasy investments, it's not a good ballpark ... and given all this, you could well be able to draft him back at a similar price point. (Though that's a know-your-league issue). I'd probably agree that he's not worth the roster spot in a league as you described.
Katman
12:24
NL 5x5 260. Took a flyer on Liover Peguero last year at a minimum price and was rewarded. Now deciding on whether to keep at $5. With uncertainty about PT and the market decidedly unenthusiastic, I’m leaning toward no. Would hate to miss a breakout, but he seems like he might be an endgame opportunity. Thoughts?
Brent Hershey
12:24
I've warmed to Peguero some as I've looked further into him this winter. He'll be a player worth watching/noting how PIT utilizes him in March games. I DO think there's a mini step forward possible, but also if you toss him back, he'd be a player I'd remain interested in re-drafting (and in that case, I assume his contract 'clock' gets reset also). Another decision to put off as long as you can; if there's some indication he's the starting 2B out of the gate and plays well in spring, maybe then you reconsider and lean towards keeping. But right now, yeah, probably keeping your options open by throwing him back is the best choice.
As the Rays churn...
12:31
In keeping with their model, the Rays will jettison players as they approach free agency.  Given the glut of infielders (although none appear to be true shortstops) who gets moved to make room for the next wave? Current opening day lineup appears to be Diaz, Lowe, Caballero and Paredes.   Mead and Caminero appear ready for prime time, with Williams about a year away.
Brent Hershey
12:31
Both Diaz and Lowe have a fairly team-friendly long-term deals for the next few seasons, which says to me that they probably aren't looking to move them. Caballero is still not arb-eligible, so he's cost-controlled; and Paredes isn't expensive yet (3.4 mil; doesn't reach FA until 2027). Caballero seems the most likely of this group, though as you infer Williams is  the only SS-featured player here. So ... I don't really expect any of that quartet to be sure-fire trade candidates soon. Think it's more likely that the Rays continue to mix/match and patch in a lot of players on a day-to-day basis.
Zach
12:34
Hi Brent, between Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, who would you rather roster this year? Long term?
Brent Hershey
12:34
This year ... probably Langford, if only because even though Carter seems to have a head-start, his known issues with LHP are likely to keep him in a platoon situation. I wouldn't expect Langford, when he gets recalled, to get the same treatment.
Long-term ... Langford for sure. Feel like while Carter is going to be good—maybe very good—player, Langford's pure talent is a notch above.
chass
12:35
When will Baseball HQ begin their Podcasts again with Patrick Davitt?
Brent Hershey
12:35
Well, I'm recording with Patrick Davitt this week, so ... this Friday at the latest?
Katman
12:41
Trying to figure out how/whether to dabble in the uncertain waters of the Dodgers rotation. What’s your best guess on IP for Buehler, Kershaw, May, Glasnow?
Brent Hershey
12:41
Makes a lot of sense, frankly, for the whispers of LAD going 6-man rotation to turn out to be true. They've got youthful starters, injury returnees, and October considerations to juggle all season long. Probably at good real-life decision, but one that is going to affect those of us rostering LAD pitchers this year. I'm guessing, but ..
Buehler: 120
Kershaw: 80
May: 40
Glasnow: 130
Guest
12:45
Trade quiery...12 team mixed keeper. I have 2 roster spots I could add to, but I want to reduce my costs ahead of the draft. I have an affirmative on my offer of JoRam 3B $19 for Soler @$1, N Marte 3b Cinci @ $4 & Bradish SP Balt. @$1. Your take?
Brent Hershey
12:45
J-Ram is by far the best player in this trade, and assuming this is a standard $260-league, he's still quite the bargain at 19. That says to me I'd hold on to him, even if you have keeper spots to fill, unless you have some rule that says you HAVE to fill all the same keepers. The return is not bad; those salaries are obviously VG on each, but Soler's injury history/shaky BA and Marte's youth and the crowded CIN IF would give me pause in a 12-teamer. I'd hold J-Ram.
TxWingman
12:52
Roster composition question:
NL only auction league (5x5, roto, keeper, 1 catcher, 10 pitchers, unlimited IL):
How do you budget for hitting/pitching – 70%/30%?
Star & scrubs since you can replace draft injured players and replacement them after 1st week.
Balanced spending during the auction knowing bargains will be available at the end of the auction for teams that have not overspent on star players.
Do you put together a general budge by position ($1 for a catcher, $20 for a 1st baseman, $20 for a closer) before the draft and move dollars as needed?
If so, what would you pre-draft budget by position look like?
Enjoy BBHQ web site and really enjoy your Monday chat.
Brent Hershey
12:52
More likely to start with the hitter/pitcher split as 67/33 or even 65/35. Then I would try to determine how much value will be kept as keepers (inflation) and likely adjust player values (and maybe even that hit/pitch split some) accordingly.
I also think yes, allocating a budget ahead of time for position (or groups of positions -- IE, $xx for 3 COR IFs; etc) is a great way to check yourself vs. the projected player pool. Then be willing/able to adjust those figures as you fill your spots at either above/below your projected budget.
But the most important thing in all this is knowing your league (if possible). How your competitors have spend/constructed their rosters in the past in the best info you can glean in prepping for this year. It's a big question you ask; hope it helps you out some ... most of all, have fun with it! Auctions are awesome.
Bill
12:54
Keeper points league pick 5:
bichette gunnar b Harper or Glasnow Gallen bradish or J Chourio ?
Brent Hershey
12:54
Haper, Bradish, Gunnar, Bichette, Gallen. Looking for floor here more than "what could happen but hasn't yet" (IE, Glasnow, Chourio)
Guest
12:57
What is your favorite keeper calculation method?
Brent Hershey
12:57
Maybe cheating a bit, but related to an answer earlier ... knowing the tendencies of your league. Do they overvalue (and over-keep?) rookies? Or do they dismiss boring but valuable starter in the draft/auction? Those type of things then go into my keeper strategy (if not calculations).
More specifically, I start with BaseballHQ projections and projections $, attempt to factor those league-specific tendencies in, definitely attempt to account for inflation (who I think other mangers will keep and how that affects the available players and player value), and then make a call. More than a strict formula, that works for me.
Michael W
1:01
Are you someone who holds on to prospects to add to your team or someone who trades them away to add more value to the major league squad? I’ve been holding prospects like Painter but starting to think it would be better to pair him with a player to upgrade a starter.
Brent Hershey
1:01
All depends on where you are in the rebuilder/contender cycle. I first attempt to identify just how high of a ceiling a prospect might realistically have, and attempt to keep the best of the best as future cornerstones not matter what. After that, once I'm in contention, then I attempt to capitalize on prospect hype and am not afraid to ship guys out for more proven pieces that fit on my roster. It's not perfect -- I traded away J-Rod in one league a few years ago not believing he would get to this level -- but overall has worked for me in keeper/dynasty formats.
Greg
1:06
I am in a NL only 5x5 dynasty league ($260 salary league) and was offered Justin Steele $5 B player who can be long-temed next year for 1-3 years where $5 would be added to his salary each year for top 10 prospect James Wood who is also $5 when he gets called up. Would you consider this deal? The pitchers I am considering keeping are Logan Webb ($6) , Zach Wheeler ($39) ,Adbert Alzolay ($3 ) and Zac Gallen ($38) Would you keep both Wheeler and Gallen or prefer one over the other?

As always-thanks for the advice!
Brent Hershey
1:06
Trade: I think I'd keep Wood; pitchers are just so much more volatile. It's possible given the rest of your squad this makes sense -- IE, Steele's def not overpriced or anything, but I'd be more likely to hang onto Wood right now.
Pitchers -- Wheeler an easy call over Gallen right now, and wouldn't really even consider keeping Gallen at that price, esp when you have that Wheeler/Webb combo reasonably priced (combined). Back to Q1 ... if you feel like you NEED three starters going into the season, and the question is trading for Steele OR keeping Gallen at 38, then I'd make that Steele deal for sure. But feel like even with a nice floor of Gallen, that $38 is way overpriced and could be put to much better use in your draft. Good luck!
Brent Hershey
1:07
Thanks, all ... fun hour as usual. We'll have mitt-popping audio by this time next week; so we'll be back to chatter again. Same time/place ... mark it down! See ya!
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