JotCast | February 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat | 2/25/2026

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February 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat

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Roger Conrad

6:00

Chevron bought Noble for its eastern Mediterranean Sea natural gas assets and got the DJ assets served by NBLX as a bonus. NBLX also had MVCs that CVX was able to adjust with the acquisition. And you don't hear a lot about the DJ in CVX earnings calls.

Susan P

6:02

Hi guys, Am asking more of a "logistics" question on your combined effort to add "Energy Bulletin" to FMS (Free Market Speculator). I remember reading a section of a FMS article that listed the energy names you were including under the EB. But on the FMS Substack 'website', clicking on the tab entitled "Energy Bulletin" did not provide any content. This may be by design at this point? As subscriber to EIA, I am well informed on your views re energy. Just thought it might be worth mentioning. Also, just saw under the "Note" section, Roger's link re "The BDC Primer". In general, I need to get more familiar with Substack's features e.g., chats vs comments vs notes, etc...If either of you prefer that we use the chat section vs comment section, please advise accordingly.

Elliott Gue

6:02

Thanks for pointing that out. I know Substack had some glitches recently, so I am wondering if that was it. When I go there now and click Energy Bulletin I see our energy-related articles indexed there. As far as Substack is concerned, I am happy to receive questions and comments via either the chat feature or the comments section. I must admit I haven't figured out all of Substack's ever-expanding list of features either; however, I have set up to receive alerts when anyone posts a comment or sends in a chat message. I do try to reply quickly though sometimes, particularly on weekends, it can take me a couple of days.

Roger Conrad

6:04

(4) Global Infrastructure Partners/Blackrock was the other principal owner of HESM also with HES and sold its stake before this deal closed. That means CVX doesn't have to deal with other major shareholders to make a move on HESM. (5) The current market value of the 62% of HESM that CVX would have to buy is less than $5 bil, versus CVX' approximately $365 bil and the $6.3 bil of cash on its books. It could do a deal at a 20% premium to the current market value of HESM--stock or cash--as basically an inhale.

6:07

I'm comfortable recommending HESM at 35 or lower with or without a deal. But I'm still thinking CVX will repeat what it did with NBLX at some point--even though they now have a multi-year deal in place that basically underwrites 5% annual dividend growth at HESM.

JT

6:07

Hi Elliott, besides TLTW, have you looked into any other buy-write ETFs and do any of them look appealing to you? There is a growing list of them, and they have varying characteristics such as their ability to maintain or grow NAV, tax treatment of dividends, and their call writing strategy.

Elliott Gue

6:07

I have looked into several. I generally don't like the equity buy-write ETFs because you're giving up upside (the main advantage of holding stocks), while accepting most of the downside risk and only a little bump in income. Generally, I like TLTW because I think we may be in for more range-bound action in long-term bond yields, which inflates call premiums without giving away too much upside. It's imperative to consider these funds -- all of these covered call ETFs -- from a total return perspective. If you're going to look at a chart, for example, make sure it's adjusted for distributions. Generally, I'd say that Wall Street created a ton of these because they have fat yields and they knew they could sell them to people. Most aren't great investments -- TLTW is the one exception in my view.

Victor

6:12

Elliott, what's your opinion on VG?

Elliott Gue

6:12

It's a higher risk play but we still like it. Their base business is solid -- in fact they're bringing on new LNG export terminals ahead of schedule. However, they have the overhang og all these arbitration cases. They won against Shell and Repsol, settled with the Chinese for an immaterial sum (the Chinese just want the gas basically and to maintain good relations), and have a few more pending. Shell also tried to overturn the arbitration loss in NY courts -- the judge in that case sounded skeptical, but we'll know in the next two months. If they prevail in New York and maybe another arbitration goes their way, I think you could see this stock rerate higher. That's what's holding VG back rather than any issue with their underlying business -- we need certainty. Even if they do have to pay some damages to BP, for example, that's manageable -- the market just hates the unquantifiable liability.

Frank

6:16

Both AVA and CWEN posted earnings and the stocks sold off. Were the numbers bad enough to be concerned. Evidently somebody is

Roger Conrad

6:16

Hi Frank. Clearway is up today--up about 17% year to date and 50% over the last 12 months. It's also trading above my highest recommended buy price of 38. It has trade as high as 40 and change. And you could make a case there's been a little buy on rumor sell on news. But they actually beat 2025 guidance and raised long-term guidance--as their primary shareholder Clearway Group (50% owned by TotalEnergies and Blackrock) also advanced its development pipeline to 11.2 gigawatts of "late stage opportunities" for future drop downs to CWEN. There was also a lot of new disclosure that should improve everyone's comfort level and another dividend increase (up 6.7% 12 months). The only reason to be concerned with CWEN is if you're considering buying--wait until it comes under 38 again. But things look pretty good here.

As for Avista, it's down a little today on the earnings news. But it's still up about 7% year to date. And all the selling took place in the first half hour of trading or so.

Roger Conrad

6:25

Avista earnings were at the lower end of its 2025 guidance range, though they were higher by 7.1%. Management blamed Washington regulators' less than supportive order regarding the company's exit from the Colstrip coal-fired power plant for a 7 cents per share charge. And it set earnings guidance for 2026 with 3% growth at the mid-point, to reflect a 10 cents per share hit from the loss of an industrial customer. But customer growth, load growth and reduced rate lag are pushing up underlying earnings at the utility operations. Bottom line: The Washington rate case this year is key to the pace of recovery. But the company is still on track. And while there may have been a reaction today to the one time charges for 2025 and 2026, it was more likely more buy on rumor sell on news. I still view this as a cheap stock for a utility that's getting stronger steadily.

Guest

6:29

Hi Roger: Do you have any thoughts about the attraction of AEE and NGG as a holding and, if so, recommendations regarding a buy limit? Their yields are not very compelling compared to our MLP's. but I know that is not a fair comparison. Thanks. Barry

Roger Conrad

6:29

Hi Barry. I'd like to see National Grid under 70 and Ameren under 90 before recommending them as buys again. In fact, both are trading right now in profit taking territory. The number for selling some is shown in column 7 of the Utility Report Card for all the companies in the coverage universe. They're solid utilities--just expensive now.

Guest

6:34

Hi Roger: Do you have any thoughts about the continued attraction of PPL and SRE as holdings? They continue to exceed your buy limit. Thanks. Barry

Roger Conrad

6:34

Both are great companies. Pennsylvania may be about to turn back the clock on its 1990s deregulation experiment--allowing PPL to build and own electricity generation in rate base again. That would potentially provide a solid boost to earnings and dividend growth. The profit taking point for PPL is 40 and we're still below that. So it's effectively a hold at this point..

Sempra Energy is even closer to its profit taking target of 95 ahead of earnings tomorrow. I expect another strong report with Texas' CAPEX potentially expanded. But it's effectively a hold--and a candidate for partial profit taking it if does take out 95.

Hans

6:40

Roger, Any update on LYB the stock has increased nicely lately and what is happening to their dividend?

Roger Conrad

6:40

Hi Hans. LyondellBasell has "recalibrated" its dividend to 69 cents per quarter, starting with the March 9 payment to shareholders of record March 2. That's roughly a 50% cut from the previous level. Management telegraphed the move when they announced Q4 results at the end of January. So it was not a surprise to investors. And the shares priced for a yield in the teens already reflected the cut.

When announcing the cut, management stated LYB was going through "one of the longest downturns in our industry." And I think it's been clear about that as well for some time. The company has made great progress with its "cash management plan," which has resulted in considerable savings and streamlining.

Roger Conrad

6:44

The cyclical pressures affecting the business have been more than offsetting that benefit over the past 12 months. And trimming the dividend keeps more cash in house to strengthen the balance sheet so long as the downturn in the industry lasts. That said, LYB earnings could be under pressure for a while--especially if the economy slows and a supply glut for key products takes longer than expected to slow up, and if feedstock prices (oil and gas) rise from here. This is a blue chip I'll be tempted to re-enter at some time. And truth be told, I sold out of it pretty close to the bottom. But the yield based on the current dividend is now less than 5%. And there's little prospect for a boost until the cycle turns. So if you're going to own it now, you're going to have to be patient. Not the only stock I'd say that about.

Hans

6:51

Roger, TU , nice dividend if it will last, but the stock just does not move higher what is your outlook? Thanks

Roger Conrad

6:51

Telus is slightly in the black this year, though it's retreated slightly since releasing Q4 results Feb 12. I thought the numbers and guidance were generally supportive of the investment plan, balance sheet and dividend--which will not be increased again until later in the decade. There still seems to be some skepticism about the company's privatization of Telus Digital and its AI plans. But Telus Health is still thriving and the company is adding fiber broadband and wireless users. The biggest negative in Canadian telecom is the fact there are 4 national competitors versus the optimal number of 3 for margins and investment. And I don't think any of these industry stocks will tear up the track until the marketing rationalizes. But the yield is high and for now safe as Telus executes its plans. And you have an opportunity to benefit from a stronger Canadian dollar--now at 73 US cents.

Alex M.

6:53

LYB finally cut the dividend, but the payout ratio looks to still be rather high based on forecasted earnings for the next two years. What gives?

Roger Conrad

6:53

I think free cash flow is a better gauge of dividend safety for Lyondell than earnings per share. But I agree the company's core business doesn't appear to have bottomed yet. And so long as that's the case, cash flow and earnings probably haven't either. So while I think it's a best in class chemicals company that will ride the next cycle up, I'm not ready to bet on it again at this time.

Victor

6:58

Hello Roger, your thoughts on XIFR. Do you expect to see this slow uptrend to continue? Is there a catalyst here that it's worth waiting for?

Roger Conrad

6:58

Hi Victor. Yes I do think the recovery plan will continue to play out. I think what everyone is waiting on is how the last three CEPFs--convertible equity preferred financing--are resolved. As was pointed out earlier in the chat, management changed some of its language referring to an asset it had been saying would be sold to liquidate the CEPF. That may indicate it will have a way to keep the asset. But the keys to the recovery are executing on the storage and repowering initiatives to boost cash flow from the existing asset base and continuing support of 51% owner NextEra Energy. And Q4 results and guidance indicate both are moving ahead. I think it's going to take patience to see a low 20s share price. But we're moving in that direction.

Frank

7:03

I know that WES has Arris Water now but I hear a lot of chatter about two companies in the Permian, actually three. Landbridge (LB) and Waterbridge (WBI) to process fracked water and store it. Texas Pacific (TPL), a landowner with 880K acres in the Permian also seems to have a expanding water business that will soon outpace their royalty income. Any thoughts?

Roger Conrad

7:03

The produced water business is increasingly important to the Permian Basin as it matures and cost control for wells becomes ever-more paramount. I think scale will be key for the most profitable frac water companies. And in WES' case, it has other assets to fund investment, balance sheet strength and investment. It also has a pretty fat yield, which LB, WBI and TPL do not. Certainly something we could cover at some point. But for now, WES looks to us as the most attractive way to play Permian produced water.

das555

7:04

Any new thoughts on ET after earnings?

Roger Conrad

7:04

I thought it was a very solid report. I have a recap of the important points in the issue of Energy and Income Advisor that posted today. It's a strong buy at 20 or less--one of the few midstreams that's still cheap.

Frank

7:10

Dorchester reported today and the press release was bare bones, maybe even less than bare bones, no commentary, nothing. Any thoughts on where they're going. I know it's dependent on the price of hydrocarbons, but growth, opportunities, nothing discussed. Do they have a conference call?

Roger Conrad

7:10

The more important report for Dorcester was actually last month (Jan 22), when they announced their quarterly dividend. The payout of 75.6 cents Feb 12 to shareholders of record Feb 2 was 2.3% higher than the year ago level. Earnings per share do not correspond to the payout and so are of limited value.

Earlier in the chat, I provided an extensive answer on royalty trusts like Dorchester and what drives dividends and share prices. The short answer is energy prices. Nothing else really matters--higher prices will boost production on a royalty company's lands and the realized selling price of that output. And that means more cash flow, which the royalty company passes on dollar for dollar as a distribution.

If you want more info on DMLP, they did file an annual report with the SEC you can access on the EDGAR site. Theres a lot in there about properties, policies and other business details.

Victor

7:13

Guys, when I login to the EIA page I don't see previous links, like the coverage universe, special reports, chats, etc. The only options I see are: "Issues, My account and Contact". Am I missing something?

Roger Conrad

7:13

Hi Victor. Everything now on our EIA and CUI websites is now accessible through the pdfs. You go to the site, click on current issue and everything you're looking for will be there in the issue.

If you're still having problems, you can drop us a line at service@capitalisttimes.com, or call Sherry at 877-302-0749, M-F, 9-5 ET.

Aaron Sarpy

7:16

Yesterday on the Fast Money Show Guy Adami recommended GDX. I am a little underweight in gold and am wondering if I am too late for this gold play. I believe he feels that the miners are a little behind the rest of the choices for gold investments. Currently I subscribe to the CUI, Utility, and Real estate sheets.

Roger Conrad

7:16

Hi Aaron. My view is most of us are going to be better off with positions in large mining stocks going forward than the metal itself. In Plus portfolio, I have Newmont Corp (NYSE: NEM) and BHP (NYSE: BHP). Both are currently trading above my highest recommended entry points--so not buys at this point. But they would be on dips.

I favor the miners over the commodity right now precisely because I don't think they're fully priced for $4,000 gold, let alone $5,000. And I think we'll see more dividend growth like Newmont's increase for March.

Shell

7:23

After today's big advance is it time to bail out of Everus Construction, one of the spin offs from MDU? I know they painted a rosy picture with their earnings report.

Roger Conrad

7:23

Hi Shell. Everus' earnings were very strong and I think obviously surprised quite a few people. If you're an income investor, this is a good time to sell the shares you received with the MDU spinoff--since they don't appear to be inclined to pay anything. Same with Knife River the other spin, which is also back near its highs. If you don't care about dividends, ECG definitely has the wind at its back as a business and a stock. So we may actually see further gains for this stock in a market where data centers are still a powerful upside catalyst outside the tech sector. But given the gains we've seen here, it makes sense to take at least something off the table and ride the rest.

Don

7:29

I'm thinking of taking positions in MAA and AVB on the recent dips. What are my downside risks, or are there better alternatives now. Thank you.

Roger Conrad

7:29

Hi Don. If there's a stock market side slide, I think these stocks will slip further, especially if the catalyst is recession worries. We don't consider the latter a high probability event. But it's possible.

So far as the REITs themselves, the primary headwind in residential property is that there's still a glut of supply, particularly in the SunBelt. These are properties largely planned and funded before the more aggressive Fed rate increases. In contrast, there's been little built since. So these REITs are looking at a much tighter market in 18 to 24 months. But right now, occupancy is under pressure and especially rents on new leases.

Both AVB and MAA are guiding to basically flat to slightly down years. That's conservative in my view and I think they'll beat it. But if they somehow miss, we could see more downside pressure as well.

Are there better alternatives? I think SHOP and industrial are seeing great momentum now. LTC Properties which I just added in TRS is up today following earnings.

Roger Conrad

7:30

AVB and MAA, however, are bottoming out from multi-year troughs for their sector. So I think if you're patient, you

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