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Front Office Chat: 10/4/24
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Anthony Franco
4:15
Doubt it'd be Emerson, Young or Montes. Someone like Farmelo, Ford or Evans as a headliner seems a reasonable ask though
Alex
4:15
Thoughts on what the Cubs should do this offseason? Lots of *good* players - both offensively and with pitching - but it feels like they need to take a big swing to get to a new level. What would be your big move(s) if you ran the franchise?
Anthony Franco
4:17
I don't think there are great ways to upgrade the offense, assuming they're not signing Soto. I'd probably look to move Bellinger if he opts in. Frees up the corner OF for Suzuki if they want to make a run at first baseman to split that and DH with Busch
4:18
If they had the payroll room for a $25MM per year type free agent pickup -- especially if they could offload some of the Belli money -- attacking the SP market makes the most sense to me. They should be in on Burnes, Snell, etc.
4:21
If there aren't obvious fixes to push the lineup from decent to great, adding another top-end starter to go with Steele and Shota (with Horton having a chance to get there) should be the play. The lineup is solid enough to win a lot of 4-3 games behind an elite pitching staff
Jon m
4:21
I know that WARs are worth different amounts depending upon where each team is on the contention spectrum but what are you estimating a WAR to be worth on the free agent market this year?
Anthony Franco
4:25
I don't really think in this framework because I think it's too linear and doesn't really track with how the market has valued players recently. Something like $7-8MM per WAR probably loosely works towards the top of the market. I think that's about right for the Chapman, Bregman, Adames types who you'd expect to be about 4-win players early and tail off over time
4:29
But I don't think that follows all the way to the bottom of the market. Teams generally aren't paying $7-8MM anymore for the one-WAR Amed Rosario or Jose Iglesias type of player. I don't think a 3-win guy like Tyler O'Neill is going to command $21-24MM annually
4:30
As the quality of player drops, I think the $/WAR is also declining because teams feel like they can approximate a decent percentage of Iglesias' or even O'Neill's production with a minimum salary player
roto bob
4:31
Hi Anthony ,new subscriber love the chat, Is J DURAN the player the  Redsox move for starting pitching, plenty of outfielders on the way and Rafala can stay put in centre field
Anthony Franco
4:31
I think Duran's too good for that. I like Rafaela but the downgrade there is huge
4:32
If they want to move a LHH-hitting outfielder for pitching help because Anthony's on the way, Wilyer Abreu would be the guy for me
4:34
Good player, under cheap team control for five seasons but not a guy you're expecting to be a top 10 MVP finisher in any given season (which Duran probably is). Abreu will have a lot of trade value and he's a guy you could more reasonably expect Anthony to adequately replace early in his career. Asking Anthony to step into Duran's shoes is a lot harder
Jed Hoyer
4:34
Saw you mention our Bellinger situation. While it isn't the worst thing to play next season with him involved (if he opts in), a trade to better allocate funds might make more sense. He will make $30MM next year with an option for the following year. What sort of return could we expect for a player like Belli on a contract like that? Is it basically just salary relief, or is there any excess value there?
Anthony Franco
4:35
If they're shedding the whole contract, it's mostly salary relief. Maybe there's a match for a back-end starter who's on a guaranteed deal but making less money than Belli is
4:36
Bellinger (likely) opting in is the best indicator that the contract doesn't have much surplus value though. If it did, he'd take the out clause
Ryan Red-leg
4:36
If the Reds don't spend much this off-season due to the TV  stuff,  I could see them making some upgrades via trade. Who are some above average outfielders that you think will be available?
How about the Reds!!  Now sign Santander and Profar.  That's resonable, right?  Also, do you think Martinez would take a qualifying offer?
Anthony Franco
4:38
I could see Profar there. Santander would surprise me and I definitely don't think they'd do both. Martinez would probably take the QO. I've seen a few Cincinnati beat people suggest the Reds are likely to make the offer. I'm skeptical on that one, even though I really like Martinez. $21MM would be a big chunk of the projected payroll
4:42
As far as OF trade possibilities go: Giants would probably move Yaz. While I do think the Guardians are likelier to keep Lane Thomas, a trade wouldn't be a huge shock. Marlins would probably deal Sánchez. Cubs could move Happ, though the division factor complicates things with CIN. Jose Siri or Taylor Ward could work
4:43
Alright, I do need to wrap this one up even though there are a lot of good questions still in the queue
Guest
4:43
I don’t really have a question but I have read on some chats that some readers don’t agree with you guys having a subscription and I will just say that I absolutely love the thought that you guys put into the answers and the work that it takes! Thank you
Anthony Franco
4:45
Thank you! Really appreciate all of you continuing to support the site (or joining up, in the case of the new members) and for bringing strong questions every week. These are always a highlight for me
4:46
I'm on X @affranco10 and happy to take questions there if I didn't get to yours in here. This was probably the busiest one of these I've had since before the deadline, which is awesome
We'll do this again next Friday. Hope you all have a great weekend and enjoy the Division Series!
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