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Front Office Chat: 11/11/22
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Anthony Franco
3:00
Hey everyone, hope you're all doing well
3:01
Going to hold around an hour today since it's been a long week. Let's get rolling
TCBASICS
3:01
Does Cashman break the bank or draw a line in the sand on Judges Contract?
Anthony Franco
3:01
Well seeing as we unanimously predicted the Yankees on Judge, I think we all think they're breaking the bank
3:02
When you're talking about a deal of that magnitude, it's more of a Hal Steinbrenner question than a Brian Cashman question though
Hits Like Rays
3:02
The Rays needs a left-handed hitting outfielder.  Do you think they might go for Joey Gallo and use the "Zunino approach" with him: swing for the fences, accept the low batting/on-base average, and invest in strong defense?  Or is that approach only useful for a position (catcher) which has so few decent hitters and so much defensive importance?
Anthony Franco
3:02
Sure I could see that. I wouldn't say that kind of approach only valuable at catcher, although it's certainly more valuable at catcher than it is in right field
3:03
It more so depends on what version of Gallo you get. There's a pretty big difference between Rangers' Gallo and Yankees/Dodgers' Gallo
John B
3:03
Old enough to remember when the entire baseball world thought Barry Bonds was going to sign with the Yankees. Instead he went home. Thinking about the Giants trade options. Excluding Webb, Bart, Luciano, and Harrison do the Giants have the assets to trade for an impact player? Thanks
Anthony Franco
3:05
I don't think they're getting a star with multiple years of affordable control if you pick away their most valuable talents, particularly given how thin the farm system is after the top two
Guest
3:05
Between the rebuild and the sale of the team, the Nats are unlikely to do anything exciting. All we have to look forward to is the "sign and flip at the trade deadline" candidates. Any thoughts on who we might go after?
Anthony Franco
3:06
Some of the lower-tier starters probably. Michael Wacha and Ross Stripling on the high end, maybe Drew Smyly or Chad Kuhl at the lower tier
They'll add a middle reliever or two as well, perhaps a buy-low bat in the Gallo mold
Bob T.
3:07
Have you heard any rumors about possible new ownership groups that are involved in discussions with Arte Moreno? Do you think that the higher interest rates will deter potential owners from bidding now? It has been a tough go for us Angels fans. Hopefully, something shakes out before the season starts.
Anthony Franco
3:08
Nothing substantive. Jon Heyman of the NY Post has suggested a notable Japanese company could be involved but haven't seen many specifics. Still too early in the process, it appears
Astros fan
3:08
It seems to me this years FA class is not very deep. You get past the first eight and the talent drops considerably. Agree or disagree?
Anthony Franco
3:08
I think that's true on the position player side, particularly the infield. There's a lot of depth in the rotation market
World Champions
3:08
I believe JV signs back with the Astros.  If that is true they will have 7 starting pitchers going into next year.  Jose Urqidey seems to be the obvious trade candidate.  What do you see as his value and could he bring back Danny Jansen?
Anthony Franco
3:09
I don't think Toronto takes that straight-up but I could see the broad Jansen/Urquidy framework being workable, yeah
Agree he's a good candidate to move. I think that's true even if the Astros don't re-sign JV
Angels fan
3:09
what are the chances of Aaron judge or a top SS. Also Verlander for a year or 2
Anthony Franco
3:10
Don't see it. Can't imagine Moreno wants to spend at that level the winter he's trying to sell the team
Duffy Scliff
3:10
Hey Anthony, for the Rule 5 draft, as I understand it, eligible players are high school draft picks who have been in the minors for 5 years, or college draft picks who have been in the minors for 4 years. How does that work for internationally signed minor leaguers? And do they factor in the 2020 minor league season that didn’t happen, or do they like jump over that season?
Anthony Franco
3:10
2020 counts for both Rule 5 and minor league free agency eligibility, yes
3:11
As for the differing eligibility rules, you're right that it's essentially 5 for high schoolers and 4 for college but that's not technically the distinction
3:12
It's 5 years for players who entered pro ball the year of their 18th birthday or younger, 4 years for players who entered pro ball the year of 19th birthday or older. The distinction almost always works out as college/HS for domestic amateurs. For international amateurs, most of whom sign at 16, it's typically five years
TCBASICS
3:12
sorry 2nd part of my question was if he dont sign Aaron does he go after Pitching? or ....
Anthony Franco
3:13
Oh sorry, this is in relation to the Cashman/Judge question earlier
If the Yankees don't re-sign Judge, yeah I think the top-tier starting pitching becomes the next logical target. There's not a whole lot else in terms of impact talent besides shortstops, which they don't seem keen on doing
Guess you could put Nimmo in that bucket as well, which is plausible enough if Judge walks
Debbie Pinson
3:14
What are your thoughts on an amnesty clause in MLB? A team can remove a player from their luxury tax count, release them, but still have to pay them? Ex: Last year Padres amnesty Hosmer. He still gets his money, he gets off their books, but he can’t play for San Diego as long as that contract is active. Teams can only have one active amnesty and player has to be out of arbitration to be amnestied.
Anthony Franco
3:15
I don't hate it but I also don't see a pressing need for it. We're only talking about a few teams that go to CBT levels anyways; concerns about overpaying players are because of self-imposed cash budgets from far more ownership groups, and the amnesty stuff wouldn't matter for them
3:16
This just forgives huge-market teams from paying taxes on a particular egregious deal, which I'm neutral on but think small-market teams would hate
Thank you for the chat!
3:16
If I understand correctly, the new luxury tax calculation is based on current season salaries, not contract averages. If this is accurate, does it make sense for teams close to the next level to buyout contracts and resign the players to the difference (or difference +1M or something) to lower the luxury tax calculation? Like should the Giants be paying $5M in buyout and a $8-10M salary to Longoria vs. picking up the $13M option ('an $8M decision...')?
Anthony Franco
3:17
CBT is still based on contract averages. It only changes if a player is traded midway through a multi-year deal to recalculate based on the AAV remaining on the contract at the time of the trade
Chuck D
3:17
With the CF market so barren, are there any corner outfielders serviceable enough that they can be a team's regular starter?  I think Conforto and Benintendi each did for a year
Anthony Franco
3:18
Gallo maybe? Conforto hasn't played center since 2019 and is coming off major shoulder surgery. Benintendi could probably moonlight there but wouldn't be good over a full season
Think Gallo could mostly handle CF but he can't hit, so pick your poison I guess
Joey
3:18
I saw your top 50 free agent predictions. I feel like the tier of mid-rotation starters that includes guys like Taillon and Walker are all getting projected 4 year deals. I feel like the going rate for these guys was like 2/25, not 4/45 (think guys like Cobb from last year). Why are these guys all of a sudden so much more expensive?
Anthony Franco
3:19
This is a great question and the one that stumped us the entire time we were putting together the top 50 list
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