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Front Office Chat: 11/23/22
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Anthony Franco
4:56
Hey everyone, hope you're all having a good afternoon!
4:57
Might as well jump in a few minutes early here since I'll probably have to run around 5:10 today
Bruce
4:57
If Bryce Harper is out until June and unable to play the outfield all year, does it make sense for the Phillies to try to sign Conforto or Bellinger to a one-year deal?
Anthony Franco
4:58
Since the question was asked, it was reported that Harper indeed had Tommy John and looks unlikely to hit until at least May. There's no clear timetable on his return to throwing
All that said, I still don't see the Phils as a great fit for an outfield addition. Castellanos and Schwarber are penciled in the corners now, and they already traded for Marsh to address center field
4:59
With Bryce locked in at DH, Conforto/Bellinger probably have clearer paths to everyday reps elsewhere
Andrew
4:59
Thoughts on Padres chances with Senga and Abreu?
Guest
4:59
I think the Padres are a dark horse to get DeGrom.  They need pitching, have the money, and are willing to take risks (being the injury history)
Anthony Franco
5:00
Senga and Abreu each feel likelier to me than deGrom, would be surprised if they got multiple players from that group
5:01
They're definitely willing to act boldly and take risks, but the payroll's probably getting tight. They're already projected right on the CBT border. I can't see any way they don't go over, but they've barely pushed past in each of the last two years. Seidler's aggressive and looks like one of the better owners in the league, but I don't think he's Steve Cohen
5:03
It's also worth considering they're facing really high tax rates for what would be a third straight season of overages. They're taxed at 50% for the first $20MM they surpass the CBT, and it only goes up from there. Pushing that number past $253MM -- which would be a must for deGrom -- means they're footing at least a $10MM tax bill, probably higher
Giants
5:03
if you had to predict what they’re actually going to do, what would be your guess?
Anthony Franco
5:04
Trea Turner, Brandon Nimmo, a couple lower-cost relievers and maybe a catching upgrade
Boone
5:04
Who is the Yankees starting LF in 2023?
Anthony Franco
5:06
Feels like it has to be someone from outside the organization. They'd be an interesting fit for Conforto, Trey Mancini kind of works since there's not a whole lot of ground to cover out there
I also expect they'll get something done to bring Carpenter back and rotate him around the corners as they did in 2022
Ian happ
5:06
He kind of fell out of the news cycle. Who could he get traded to and what return would he bring?
Anthony Franco
5:07
Another guy who'd fit for any number of corner outfield-needy teams. Things have kind of gone quiet there because it's not especially clear whether the Cubs are entertaining this kind of trade right now
5:08
I'm still pretty perplexed by what they're doing. Sure seems like they think can compete next year. I disagree and would trade Happ this winter, but if they sign a mid-tier starter and a top free agent shortstop, it'd be incongruous to pivot to dealing Happ
5:09
If they do move him, the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, Rangers, Astros, Padres all seem like fits. Think you'd get a borderline top 100 talent (probably a guy just off most prospect lists) as the headliner
Harrison bader
5:09
Should the Yankees look to extend him? Will they extend him? About how much would it cost?
Anthony Franco
5:11
This is an interesting one, haven't given this any thought. He's in his final arb year, making $4.7MM next season. Typically a slightly above-average hitter with plus center field defense but was injured for a lot of this year and didn't hit well. He's a tricky player to value
5:13
He'll be a free agent going into his age-30 season and I could see him playing his way to a four-year deal with a good platform season, but we're not there right now. If he'd take like 3/30 for his first few free agent years, I'd jump if I were the Yankees. If not, I'd probably hold off
Joey
5:13
Why isn’t Jeff Kent a hall of famer? Is numbers are good
Anthony Franco
5:15
I think it's mostly that the defensive metrics hated him and those numbers bring his career WAR total around 55, which is kind of borderline. The offensive production is right there though, and if you think he was a capable enough second baseman, you can make a really strong case for him
He'd be an edge case for me personally. Probably gets a little more support from the "full ballot" voters now that Bonds, Schilling, Clemens are off
Mark
5:15
Thanks for the chat today.  Huge Cards fan here with two questions:  1)  Any "surprise" solutions to the catcher position that haven't been regularly mentioned in the media?  2) Is Trea Turner even a realistic possibility for the Cards?  He sure would be a jolt for our line-up.
Anthony Franco
5:17
Surprise catching solutions? Guess I could see Texas dealing Mitch Garver. Padres will probably trade Austin Nola, not that I expect that to be all that exciting for Cardinals fans
5:18
As for Trea (or any of the shortstops really), it's viable but tough to project since it's so far out of character for that organization. They've taken on big contracts via trade (Arenado) or extended players they'd already acquired (Goldy) but don't usually go nine figures on a free agent
5:20
There's near-term payroll space, a roster fit and a win-now mentality, so I wouldn't completely rule it out. But I think it's easier to project teams like the Giants, Dodgers or Cubs on those guys since we've already seen them splurge at that kind of level for a free agent before. Trea would cost more than $100MM above their previous franchise-record deal, which was the $130MM for Goldschmidt
Harley Bart Jarvis
5:20
Is Bumgarner a potential bad contract for contract swap target for the Yankees?
Anthony Franco
5:20
I guess but I don't see why they'd want him. Feels safe to say he's just pretty bad now
5:21
I assume this in reference to Hicks, who's making $30MM over three. I'd prefer Hicks to Bumgarner at $37MM over two
Brew Crew
5:22
Could Bellinger end up taking a 1 year deal in Milwaukee? The Brewers had success with Grandal taking a 1 year deal... Bellinget would hit ALOT of HRs in AmFam Park.... but too costly? Or is Jose Abreu a better fit?
Jzmet
5:22
If the Mets don't resign Nimmo, is a one-year Bellinger a sensible alternative?
Don
5:22
Where will Bellinger end up? And I think he is crazy just taking a one-year contract the way he has hit in the last 2 and a half years.
TennJay
5:22
There are several ways the Jays can go for their CF vacancy.  One I like and prefer which gives them a lot of flexibility now and later is to sign Bellinger to a 1yr deal, that he prefers, say 1yr for 14M or whatever and then also sign Keirmeir as the 4th outfielder.  That greatly improves the Jays run prevention, hopefully keeps Springer healthy, and Keirmeir can play quite a bit as a late game sub, pinch runner and slot in for an injury at any position with great defensive competence.  For Bellinger, coming to the Jays gets him east coast exposure and playing in many hitters ballparks and gives him a great platform to resuscitate his career with a team that has a knack for it.  All he has to do is ask Robby Ray and Marcus Semien how it worked for them.  Thoughts?
Anthony Franco
5:23
Got a million Bellinger questions. Is he a viable fit for the Brewers, Mets and Blue Jays? Yeah, I think he could work pretty nicely in all three spots. That's also true of San Francisco, back to the Dodgers, Miami, Texas and the Cubs. He should get hits from almost half the league
5:25
That's in large part due to the terrible center field market. If you're not going to drop $100MM+ on Nimmo -- and only one team is -- then you're kind of down to Bellinger and Kiermaier as viable options. Neither guy can hit really but Bellinger still has the allure of his past performance that'll probably get him $12-14MM next year
5:26
I wrote about this last week, but I think Bellinger's problems go well beyond shoulder strength. That's almost certainly part of it, but I hate how aggressive his approach has gotten over the past couple years. He's not putting himself in great counts to do damage. I wouldn't be super stoked about throwing him $14MM or whatever to be my center fielder, but there are enough teams desperate for help at the position that somebody will do it
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